Thursday Night Football delivers one of the most intriguing matchups of the week as the surging Dallas Cowboys travel to Ford Field to take on a Detroit Lions team looking to bounce back from a crushing Thanksgiving loss. The Cowboys come in at 6-5-1 riding a three-game winning streak that includes one of the most-watched NFL games in history. Their 31-28 upset of the Kansas City Chiefs drew 57.2 million viewers and announced to the world that Dallas is very much alive in the playoff race.
Detroit sits at 7-5 after dropping a 31-24 decision to Green Bay on Thanksgiving, getting swept by their division rivals for the first time since 2020. The Lions came into this season with Super Bowl aspirations after posting a franchise-best 15-2 record in 2024, but injuries and inconsistency have plagued them throughout 2025. Still, this is a team that's historically dominant after losses, going 14-0 straight up and 13-1 against the spread following defeats since November 2022.
The market has shown tremendous respect for Dallas in this spot. The line opened at Lions -3.5 and has been bet down to the key number of -3, with a whopping 93% of the money coming in on the Cowboys. That's the most lopsided split of any game this week. Whether that's sharp action or public overreaction to Dallas beating Kansas City remains to be seen, but the number tells you the books are concerned about the Cowboys covering.
Dak Prescott has been absolutely sensational over the past month. Look at the numbers since Dallas started clicking: an 8:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the last three games, multiple touchdown passes in each contest, and the kind of decision-making that reminds you why the Cowboys made him one of the highest-paid players in NFL history. Against Kansas City, Prescott went 27-of-39 for 320 yards and two touchdowns, leading a game-winning drive that captivated the nation.
Even more impressive is what Prescott accomplished from a historical standpoint. Earlier this season, he threw for 354 yards to become the Cowboys' all-time leading passer, surpassing Tony Romo's career total of 34,183 yards. That's franchise immortality for a quarterback who's had to fight through criticism and doubt throughout his career. Prescott has 3,261 passing yards and 25 touchdowns through 12 games, putting him on pace for another 4,000-yard season.
CeeDee Lamb has been Prescott's primary weapon, as expected. The star receiver hauled in seven catches for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Chiefs, his fourth triple-digit game of the season. Lamb's chemistry with Prescott is undeniable, and when they're operating at this level, Dallas has one of the most dangerous passing attacks in football.
The Lions are dealing with a massive injury cloud heading into Thursday night. Amon-Ra St. Brown, their two-time first-team All-Pro receiver, left the Thanksgiving game with an ankle sprain and missed both practices this week. He's listed as questionable and described his availability as a game-time decision. When healthy, St. Brown is one of the best receivers in football, averaging 75 receptions, 884 yards, and 9 touchdowns this season. Losing him would be a devastating blow to Detroit's offense.
The injury list doesn't stop there. Starting safety Kerby Joseph is out with a knee injury. Pro Bowl cornerback Terrion Arnold was placed on injured reserve after requiring shoulder surgery, ending his season. Both starting tackles, Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell, are listed as questionable, as is center Graham Glasgow and safety Brian Branch. When you're looking at potential absences across the offensive line, secondary, and receiving corps, that's a recipe for disaster against a Dallas team playing with supreme confidence.
Dallas has their own injury concerns, notably starting left tackle Tyler Guyton and cornerback Trevon Diggs both ruled out. Edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney is questionable with a hamstring issue but was upgraded to limited participation and looks likely to play. The Cowboys will need Clowney's pass rush to pressure Jared Goff, especially if Detroit is missing key protection pieces.
Let's talk numbers, because this game features fascinating contrasts. Dallas is scoring 29.3 points per game, second in the NFL. Their offense has been electric when healthy and engaged. But their defense tells a different story entirely, allowing 28.5 points per game, ranking 31st in the league. The Cowboys have been in shootouts all season, which partly explains why this total is set at a whopping 54.5 points.
Detroit's offense is nearly as prolific at 29.2 points per game, third in the NFL. Jared Goff has been outstanding, completing nearly 70% of his passes with 25 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. The Lions rank sixth in the league in passing yards and have the weapons to exploit Dallas's vulnerable secondary. Goff's 10:2 TD:INT ratio since the Week 8 bye demonstrates how efficiently Detroit moves the ball when healthy.
Where the Lions have an edge is on defense. Detroit allows 24.1 points per game, ranking 20th, which isn't elite but is significantly better than Dallas. Their defensive DVOA of -9.8% ranks sixth in football, with particularly strong numbers against the run. The problem is execution without key personnel. If Brian Branch can't go, and with Terrion Arnold on IR, the Lions secondary could be compromised against Prescott and Lamb.
Dallas has covered three straight games, including back-to-back outright wins as home underdogs against the Eagles and Chiefs. The Cowboys are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against Detroit. There's historical precedent for Dallas playing well in this building, and the recent momentum only strengthens that narrative.
The Lions, conversely, have failed to cover three consecutive home games, including two outright losses as favorites. That's a troubling trend for a team that was supposed to dominate at Ford Field. However, Detroit's bounce-back ability after losses cannot be ignored. Going 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS following defeats since November 2022 is an absurd statistic. Dan Campbell's team simply doesn't lose two in a row.
The total has gone over in seven of Dallas's last nine games and four of Detroit's last five. With both teams capable of explosive offensive performances and Dallas's defense ranking among the worst in the league, the over looks enticing at 54.5. The only concern is if St. Brown is limited or absent, which could suppress Detroit's scoring.
For Dallas to win, they need Dak Prescott to continue his hot streak and CeeDee Lamb to win his one-on-one matchups against Detroit's banged-up secondary. The Cowboys must establish some semblance of a running game to keep the Lions honest and protect Prescott from Aidan Hutchinson's replacement on the edge. Most importantly, Dallas needs to win the turnover battle. Their three-game winning streak has featured opportunistic defensive plays that flipped momentum.
Detroit's path to victory runs through Jared Goff and their ground game. The Lions need to control the tempo, keep Dallas's offense on the sideline, and exploit the Cowboys' 31st-ranked scoring defense. If Amon-Ra St. Brown plays, feeding him early and often makes sense. If he doesn't, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta need to step up in a major way. The Lions also need their offensive line to hold up, because pressure up the middle makes Goff uncomfortable.
Special teams could be a factor as well. Brandon Aubrey has been outstanding for Dallas this season, including that historic 64-yard field goal in overtime against the Giants. In a game projected to be close, a long field goal could be the difference. Detroit's Jake Bates has also been reliable, but Aubrey is operating at an elite level that gives Dallas an edge in the kicking game.
This is a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in opposite directions. Dallas is riding high with playoff hopes renewed, while Detroit is trying to stop the bleeding after two straight losses to division rivals. The injury situation heavily favors the Cowboys, and the market clearly agrees given the line movement and overwhelming money on Dallas.
That said, betting against Dan Campbell's Lions after a loss has been a losing proposition for years. The bounce-back trend is real, and Ford Field will be electric for this primetime showdown. Jared Goff is playing excellent football, and if Amon-Ra St. Brown suits up, Detroit's offense can match Dallas score for score.
The total is the cleanest play on the board. Both offenses are capable of putting up 30+ points, Dallas can't stop anyone, and even a diminished Detroit attack should move the ball. Expect a shootout under the Thursday night lights with both teams pushing tempo to maximize possessions.