Army Black Knights vs 
Navy MidshipmenThe 126th Meeting: America's Game
The Army Black Knights (6-5) and Navy Midshipmen (9-2) meet for the 126th time at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore for college football's most storied rivalry. This isn't just a football game. It's a celebration of service, sacrifice, and the young men and women who will soon defend this nation. When these two teams take the field, records become secondary to tradition, pride, and the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy that hangs in the balance.
Navy enters ranked 22nd in the country after a stellar 9-2 campaign. The Midshipmen started 7-0 before stumbling against North Texas and Notre Dame, but they closed strong with wins over South Florida and Memphis. Blake Horvath has emerged as one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in college football, and Navy's triple-option attack leads the nation in rushing. The Midshipmen have already secured a berth in the Liberty Bowl, but this game means more than any bowl game ever could.
Army's season has been disappointing by their recent standards. The Black Knights are 6-5 and heading to the Fenway Bowl, a far cry from the 12-win seasons that have become expected at West Point. But here's what matters: Army has won six of the last nine meetings against Navy. The record means nothing when these two teams meet. What matters is execution, physicality, and which team wants it more on this particular Saturday afternoon.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-30s with clouds. Classic cold-weather service academy football. This is the kind of environment where games get physical, possessions become precious, and the triple-option grinds out four-yard gains that add up to touchdowns. Both teams are built for this. Both teams have been preparing for this moment since August.
Underdog is 10-4 ATS in Army-Navy games since 2011
Army is 3-0 ATS when getting 6.5+ points in this rivalry
Under is 47-14-1 in service academy games since 2005 (78% hit rate)
Navy is 4-7 ATS this season, 2-5 as 6+ point favorites
Underdog has won outright in 5 of the last 9 Army-Navy games
Elite Dual-Threat Quarterbacks Collide
Army Black Knights (6-5)Navy Midshipmen (9-2, #22)Blake Horvath is the engine that makes Navy's offense go. The senior quarterback is the first Navy signal-caller to throw for 1,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons, a feat that hasn't been accomplished in college football since Lamar Jackson did it at Louisville in 2016-17. Horvath has rushed for 1,040 yards with 14 touchdowns while adding 1,390 passing yards and 9 touchdowns through the air. When Horvath starts, Navy wins. His 19-3 career record as a starter speaks for itself.
Cale Hellums has been a revelation for Army. The junior quarterback stepped into the starting role after Dewayne Coleman went down with injuries in the sixth game of the season, and he hasn't looked back. Hellums has rushed for 1,078 yards with 15 touchdowns at 5-foot-10 and 205 pounds. He's a tough, physical runner who embraces contact and wears down defenses over the course of four quarters. In a game that will be decided by ball security and clock management, Hellums gives Army everything they need.
The quarterback matchup is fascinating because both players run the same style of offense but with different strengths. Horvath is the more dynamic playmaker who can hurt you in multiple ways. Hellums is the grinder who will pick up four yards on first down, five on second, and convert the third-and-short consistently. Neither team wants to get into a shootout. Both want to control the clock and limit possessions. That's exactly how this game will be played.
Betting Analysis: Why the Trends Matter
The line opened at Navy -4.5 and has been bet up to -6.5, suggesting public money is flooding in on the Midshipmen. Everyone sees Navy's 9-2 record, their #22 ranking, and Blake Horvath's highlight reel, and they assume the Midshipmen are going to cruise. But the betting trends in this rivalry tell a different story entirely.
The underdog in Army-Navy games is 10-4 against the spread since 2011. That's a 71.4% cover rate. When you're getting points in this rivalry, history suggests you're getting value. Even more compelling: Army is 3-0 ATS when getting 6.5 points or more against Navy. Three for three. When the market prices the Black Knights as a full touchdown underdog, they've covered every single time.
Navy's ATS record this season is concerning. The Midshipmen have gone 4-7 against the spread despite their 9-2 straight-up record. That's a massive disconnect between their actual performance and the expectations the market has placed on them. Navy has been winning games, but they haven't been winning by the margins the oddsmakers expect. And when Navy is asked to lay big numbers as favorites, the results have been even worse: 2-5 ATS as 6+ point favorites this season.
The total of 38.5 reflects expectations for a low-scoring affair, and the historical trends support that. The under is 47-14-1 in service academy matchups dating back to 2005. That's a 77% hit rate over two decades. When two triple-option teams meet, they control the clock, limit possessions, and grind out games in the trenches. However, it's worth noting the last three Army-Navy games have produced two overs (2022 and 2024), so the trend may be shifting.
Keys To Victory
For Army to win: Control the clock and limit Navy's possessions. Blake Horvath can't beat you if he's standing on the sideline watching Cale Hellums convert third-and-shorts. Army needs to establish the run early, move the chains consistently, and keep this game in the 20s. Defensively, they must contain Horvath's scrambling ability and force Navy into third-and-long situations where the passing game becomes predictable. If Army can win the time of possession battle by five-plus minutes, they'll have a chance to pull the upset.
For Navy to win: Get Blake Horvath into space early and establish the explosive plays that have defined their season. Navy's offense is at its best when Horvath is making plays in the open field, not when they're grinding out four-yard gains. The Midshipmen need to score on their first two possessions and force Army to abandon their ball-control approach. Defensively, Navy must stop the run and make Hellums throw the football. Army's passing game is virtually non-existent (78.3 yards per game), so loading the box and challenging the Black Knights to beat you through the air is the play.
Final Thoughts
This is college football's most special rivalry. Records don't matter. Rankings don't matter. What matters is 60 minutes of football between two teams that will soon serve this nation. The players on both sidelines understand the magnitude of this moment. They've been preparing for it since August. For many of them, this is the last football game they'll ever play, which makes every snap precious.
Navy has the better record, the higher ranking, and the more explosive quarterback in Blake Horvath. But Army has won six of the last nine meetings, the underdog has covered at an elite rate in this rivalry, and the Black Knights have everything to play for as they try to salvage a disappointing season with a victory over their biggest rival.
This projects as a tight, physical game decided by a touchdown or less. Both teams will control the clock, limit turnovers, and rely on their rushing attacks to move the chains. The team that wins the turnover battle and converts in the red zone will win this game. It's that simple. And when it's that simple, margin of victory tends to be small.
Enjoy the 126th Army-Navy Game. There's nothing else like it in sports.
