#9 Alabama @ 
#8 OklahomaCFP First Round: The Rematch in Norman
Look, when Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 in Tuscaloosa on November 15th, nobody saw it coming. The Sooners were 6-point underdogs, got outgained by nearly 200 yards, and still walked out of Bryant-Denny Stadium with a win. Three turnovers, including an 87-yard pick-six from Eli Bowen, and Alabama's first home loss under Kalen DeBoer. It was chaos, pure and simple. Now these two meet again in Norman for the CFP First Round, and you can bet the Tide are thinking about one thing: revenge.
The #9 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3) travel to face the #8 Oklahoma Sooners (10-2) in what might be the most compelling first-round matchup of the expanded playoff. It's rare to get a rematch this quickly, and even rarer for the team that won the first meeting to be hosting in the playoff. Oklahoma is a 1.5-point favorite at home, but there's a reason this line hasn't moved much despite the Sooners' November upset. Everyone knows Alabama is dangerous, and Kalen DeBoer's squad has something to prove.
Here's what makes this fascinating: the total is 40.5 points, the lowest in CFP history. The market is essentially telling you this will be a defensive slugfest, a grind-it-out battle between two SEC defenses that know each other well. And honestly? They might be right. Oklahoma's defense forced those three turnovers in the first meeting, and Alabama's defense held the Sooners to just 212 yards. Neither team could move the ball consistently. This rematch could follow the same script.
Alabama's revenge tour: The Tide have won three straight since that November loss, including a 27-20 Iron Bowl win over Auburn. They're playing their best football at the right time.
Oklahoma's home edge: The Sooners are playing in Norman, where they've been nearly unbeatable this season. Gaylord Family Stadium will be rocking.
The Quarterbacks: Simpson vs. Mateer
Alabama Crimson Tide (10-3)Oklahoma Sooners (10-2)Ty Simpson has been everything Alabama hoped for this season. The junior took over as the starter in August and never looked back, throwing for 3,268 yards and 26 touchdowns with just 5 interceptions. That's a 5.2-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio, which is elite by any measure. Simpson ranks 15th nationally in passing yards and has a trio of receivers who can win one-on-one matchups against anyone. Germie Bernard, Ryan Williams, and Isaiah Horton have combined for a ridiculous amount of production.
John Mateer, on the other hand, has been more of a game manager for Oklahoma. The Washington State transfer set school records in his debut (392 yards, 81% completion against Illinois State), but he's also thrown 10 interceptions on the season. That turnover issue nearly cost the Sooners in several games, and against a defense as talented as Alabama's, mistakes can be fatal. But Mateer's legs add a dimension Simpson can't match. His 416 rushing yards and 7 rushing touchdowns make him a true dual-threat.
Here's the thing about the first meeting: Oklahoma won despite Mateer having a mediocre game. The Sooners managed just 212 yards of total offense, which normally means you lose by 20. But those three Alabama turnovers changed everything. Can Oklahoma's defense replicate that turnover magic? Can Alabama's offense protect the ball this time? These questions will likely decide the game.
Betting Analysis: Lowest Total in CFP History
The spread of Oklahoma -1.5 tells you this is essentially a coin flip. The Sooners have home-field advantage and the confidence of beating Alabama a month ago. But the Tide are 10-1 against the spread when coming off a loss under Kalen DeBoer. Alabama has a chip on their shoulder, and that's dangerous.
That 40.5 total is historic for all the wrong reasons. This is the lowest point total in any College Football Playoff game ever. The market is telling you both defenses are elite, both offenses have limitations, and this will be ugly. The Under is 10-2 in Oklahoma's games this season, and the Sooners have leaned on their defense all year. If you're betting the total, the Under feels like the play.
On the moneyline, Alabama +105 offers value if you believe in the revenge narrative. The Tide are playing their best football of the season, they have the superior passing attack, and they've already seen this Oklahoma defense once. If Simpson protects the ball, Alabama has the talent to win on the road. Oklahoma -125 is justified by home-field advantage, but it's not a lock by any means.
Under trends: Oklahoma is 10-2 Under this season; 40.5 is lowest CFP total ever
First meeting: OU won 23-21 despite being outgained 406-212
Turnovers: Alabama committed 3 turnovers in first meeting; ball security is key
Home underdog: Oklahoma is home favorite for first time all season
Public split: 50/50 on spread; 60% of money on Alabama +1.5
Keys To Victory
For Alabama to win: Protect. The. Football. It's that simple. The Tide outgained Oklahoma by nearly 200 yards in November and still lost because of three turnovers. If Simpson takes care of the ball and Alabama's receivers win their one-on-one battles, the Tide have the talent advantage. Get Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams involved early, establish the run to keep Oklahoma's pass rush honest, and don't give Eli Bowen any chances for another pick-six. Play clean football and the revenge tour continues.
For Oklahoma to win: The formula worked a month ago, so why change it? Let the defense hunt. Kip Lewis and the Sooners front seven need to pressure Ty Simpson into bad decisions, force turnovers, and give Mateer short fields to work with. Oklahoma doesn't need to win a shootout. They need to win a 20-17 rock fight. Feed Deion Burks, use Mateer's legs to extend drives, and trust that the home crowd in Norman will provide an edge in crucial moments. Make Alabama play from behind and watch the pressure mount.
Final Thoughts
This is the playoff game everyone wanted. A rematch, revenge, and two SEC heavyweights going at it on the biggest stage. Oklahoma proved in November they can beat Alabama. Alabama has spent a month stewing on that loss, getting healthy, and waiting for another shot. Something has to give.
The stats favor Alabama. They have the better quarterback, the better receivers, and they've already shown they can dominate Oklahoma's offense. But the Sooners have that win from a month ago burned into their memory. They know they can do it. They know they don't need to be perfect. They just need to create chaos, force turnovers, and let their defense carry them.
Gaylord Family Stadium will be electric. The atmosphere for a CFP game in Norman is going to be unlike anything either team has experienced. Alabama has played in bigger games, but not many. Oklahoma has the home crowd, the momentum, and the belief that comes from already beating this team once.
This one's going to be close. It might be ugly. But that's what makes it great. Set your alarms for 8 PM ET on Friday. The rematch we've been waiting for is finally here.
