Western Kentucky vs 
Southern MissThe Fifth Meeting in a Perfect Series
The 2025 New Orleans Bowl brings together two programs heading in opposite directions. The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4) enter this matchup with all the momentum, having become bowl eligible for the seventh straight season under head coach Tyson Helton. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5) are in turmoil, having lost their last three games and their head coach Charles Huff, who bolted for the Memphis job just days ago. This is a classic bowl game mismatch of stability versus chaos.
Here's what makes this intriguing: WKU is 4-0 all-time against Southern Miss, including a 10-7 victory in Bowling Green the last time these programs met in 2020. The Hilltoppers have owned this series, and there's no reason to think that changes tonight. Western Kentucky is one of just eight programs in the country, and one of only two non-Power Conference teams, to play in a bowl game or College Football Playoff game every season since 2019. They know how to prepare for these moments.
The coaching situation for Southern Miss is a disaster. Charles Huff left for Memphis after just one season, and former offensive coordinator Blake Anderson was promoted to interim head coach just days ago. That's not ideal preparation for a bowl game. Meanwhile, Tyson Helton has had weeks to prepare his squad specifically for this matchup. The experience advantage heavily favors Western Kentucky in every way imaginable.
Both teams finished with similar records and similar statistical profiles, which explains the tight spread. Southern Miss averages 403.7 yards and 29.8 points per game on offense, while Western Kentucky posts nearly identical numbers at 405.4 yards and 29.8 points. Defensively, both squads allow around 402 yards per game. On paper, these teams are mirror images. But bowl games are about preparation, motivation, and execution under pressure. That's where WKU has the edge.
WKU: Nearly every player on the roster is active and ready to go. The Hilltoppers have avoided the opt-out plague that hurts so many Group of Five teams in bowl season. Full roster, full commitment.
Southern Miss: Head coach Charles Huff has left for Memphis. Blake Anderson takes over as interim HC with minimal preparation time. Team morale is a major question mark. Golden Eagles have lost three straight games entering the bowl.
Quarterback Showdown: McIvor vs Braxton
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (8-4)Southern Miss Golden Eagles (7-5)Look, the stats favor Southern Miss quarterback Braylon Braxton. He's thrown for nearly 1,000 more yards than Maverick McIvor and has 23 touchdowns compared to McIvor's 12. On paper, Braxton is the better player. But bowl games aren't played on paper. They're played on the field, in a dome, with emotions running high and preparation time limited. And right now, Southern Miss is a mess.
McIvor might not put up gaudy numbers, but he's exactly what WKU needs: a game manager who protects the football and makes smart decisions. The Hilltoppers don't ask him to win games; they ask him not to lose them. That approach has worked all season, and it should work again tonight against a defense that will be playing for an interim coach they barely know.
The real story is the turnover battle. Southern Miss has forced 26 turnovers this season, ranking 4th in the entire FBS. That's elite. But they've also turned the ball over themselves, and their turnover margin has been inconsistent. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, has a turnover margin of -5 (104th in FBS). If USM can force turnovers and WKU can't protect the football, this game flips. But can a team in coaching chaos generate that defensive intensity? That's the million-dollar question.
Betting Analysis and Key Trends
The line at WKU -1.5 is essentially a pick'em, but don't let that fool you. Western Kentucky is 9-3 against the spread this season, one of the best ATS marks in college football. They cover consistently because they play disciplined football, control the clock, and don't beat themselves. Southern Miss, at 5-6-1 ATS, has been far less reliable against the number.
The total at 58.5 is juicy. Both offenses average nearly 30 points per game, and both defenses allow over 400 yards. This has the makings of a shootout, especially in the dome environment where conditions are perfect for passing. The over has been a consistent play in WKU games, and Southern Miss can score when Braxton is cooking. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game push into the 60s.
The moneyline at WKU -118 offers value for bettors who believe the Hilltoppers win outright. Getting a 4-0 all-time series leader, with full roster availability, playing against a team in coaching turmoil, at essentially even money? That's the kind of spot sharp bettors love. Southern Miss at +100 is tempting for underdog bettors, but the coaching chaos is a massive red flag.
One trend that screams WKU: teams with interim coaches in bowl games have historically struggled. The lack of preparation time, the emotional turmoil of losing a head coach, and the challenge of motivating players who feel abandoned all work against Southern Miss. Blake Anderson might be a fine offensive coordinator, but he's stepping into an impossible situation.
Keys To Victory
For WKU to win: Protect the football. Southern Miss's defense is built on creating turnovers, so Maverick McIvor needs to be at his game-managing best. Establish the run early to control the clock and keep Braylon Braxton off the field. Defensively, make Braxton beat you from the pocket. He's dangerous on the move, so contain him in the pocket and force him into difficult throws. The Hilltoppers have the coaching advantage, the experience advantage, and the stability advantage. Play clean football and let the chaos on the other sideline work in your favor.
For Southern Miss to win: Rally around the interim coaching staff and play with something to prove. Force turnovers early to flip the field and give Braylon Braxton short fields. If the defense can create chaos and give Braxton opportunities, he has the talent to exploit any secondary. This team has beaten App State and Louisiana this season, so the talent is there. The question is whether they can summon the motivation and focus after losing their head coach. If the Golden Eagles can channel their frustration into energy on the field, they have a chance. But that's a big if.
Final Thoughts
This New Orleans Bowl comes down to stability versus chaos. Western Kentucky has been doing this for seven straight years under Tyson Helton. They know how to prepare for bowl games, they know how to handle the moment, and they have their full roster ready to go. Southern Miss just lost their head coach to Memphis, is on a three-game losing skid, and has an interim coach who's been on the job for mere days. That's not a recipe for success.
The Hilltoppers are 4-0 all-time against the Golden Eagles and 9-3 ATS this season. They cover more often than not because they play disciplined, physical football. Southern Miss has the individual talent to compete, especially with Braylon Braxton's playmaking ability, but talent alone doesn't win bowl games. Preparation, motivation, and execution do. And right now, WKU holds all the cards in those departments.
The spread is just 1.5 points, making this essentially a coin flip in the eyes of the market. But when you dig into the situational factors, this feels like a WKU spot through and through. Full roster, full coaching staff, full preparation. Against a team missing its head coach, on a losing streak, with morale in question. Sometimes the market doesn't fully account for the intangibles, and this might be one of those times.
