Detroit @ 
MinnesotaThe Lions Are Desperate. The Vikings Are Dangerous.
This is not the Detroit Lions season anyone expected. Coming off a franchise-best 15-2 campaign in 2024, Dan Campbell's squad was supposed to be running away with the NFC North again. Instead, they're 8-7, clinging to playoff life by a thread, and need to win out while getting help from the Packers losing both remaining games. The margin for error is zero.
Meanwhile, Minnesota is officially eliminated from playoff contention at 7-8, but they've won three straight games and just beat Seattle. Here's the kicker though: J.J. McCarthy is out with a hairline fracture in his throwing hand, meaning undrafted rookie Max Brosmer will make his second career start. In his first start against Seattle, Brosmer threw four interceptions and posted a QBR of 5.0. That's not a typo. Five point zero. It ranks 472nd out of 480 quarterback starts this entire NFL season.
The Lions are 14-2 ATS after a loss since midway through 2022. That's an absurd bounce-back record, and Detroit is coming off back-to-back defeats. If there's ever a spot where Dan Campbell's team responds with maximum effort, this is it. Their entire season, their playoff hopes, everything hinges on Christmas Day in Minneapolis.
The Vikings are hosting their "Winter Whiteout" game with a rookie making his second NFL start against one of the most desperate teams in football. Minnesota has nothing to play for except pride and playing spoiler to their divisional rival. Sometimes that's dangerous. Sometimes it's not enough.
Minnesota: J.J. McCarthy OUT (hairline fracture, throwing hand). Max Brosmer starts. McCarthy has played just 9 of a possible 34 games since being drafted 10th overall due to torn meniscus, high ankle sprain, concussion, and now the hand. In 9 games this year: 1,450 yards, 11 TD, 12 INT. Brosmer's only start: 4 INTs, 26-0 shutout loss.
Detroit: Amon-Ra St. Brown (knee) is questionable but expected to play. Sam LaPorta has been banged up. The offensive line has dealt with injuries all season, contributing to Detroit's late-season slide.
What Happened to the Lions?
Detroit Lions (8-7)Minnesota Vikings (7-8)The story of Detroit's 2025 season is injuries and attrition. After reaching the NFC Championship last year, the Lions expected to take the next step. Instead, assistant coaches left for other opportunities, the offensive line got banged up, and the defense never made the expected leap. They're allowing 24.9 points per game, ranked 23rd in the league, and that's been the difference between contender and pretender.
The offense is still humming. Detroit scores 30.1 points per game, second-best in the NFL. When Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and the run game are clicking, this is one of the most explosive attacks in football. But you can't outscore everyone when your defense is giving up points in bunches.
Minnesota's quarterback situation is a disaster. J.J. McCarthy was supposed to be the future, but he's played just 9 games due to four different injuries and posted the worst passer rating among starting quarterbacks. Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie, looked completely overmatched against Seattle with four interceptions. Justin Jefferson is still a top-three receiver in football, but even he can't carry an offense with that kind of quarterback play.
Betting Analysis: The Numbers Favor Detroit
Let's talk about that 14-2 ATS record after losses since 2022. That's not a coincidence. Dan Campbell's teams don't stay down. They respond. Detroit just lost to Buffalo and then to Chicago at home. The Lions have every reason to come out with maximum intensity on Christmas Day with their playoff lives on the line.
The Vikings are 3-0 ATS in their last three games, which is notable. But they also benefited from playing the Giants, Falcons, and Seahawks during that stretch. Detroit is a different animal, especially a desperate Detroit team. The Lions are 9-1 ATS against Minnesota over their last 10 meetings. Nine and one. That's dominance.
Detroit has the fewest giveaways in the NFL with just eight turnovers. Minnesota has the most with 29. In a game where the Lions need to protect the ball and force mistakes, that turnover differential is massive. Max Brosmer threw four picks in one game. Asking him to protect the ball against a desperate Lions defense is asking a lot.
The 43.5 total is interesting. Detroit's offense scores 30+ per game, but Minnesota's has struggled mightily with their quarterback carousel. Models are projecting around 46 combined points, which suggests the over has value. But if Brosmer implodes and the Lions defense forces turnovers, this could turn into a blowout where Detroit dominates time of possession.
Keys To Victory
For Detroit to win: Get after Max Brosmer early and often. The rookie looked rattled against Seattle, and Detroit's pass rush needs to make him uncomfortable from the first snap. On offense, establish the run, control the clock, and let Jared Goff pick apart a Vikings secondary that will have to respect the deep ball. Don't give Minnesota any hope. Put your foot on their throat and don't let up.
For Minnesota to win: Max Brosmer has to play the game of his life. Minimize mistakes, get the ball to Justin Jefferson on quick routes, and let the defense keep it close. The Vikings need to turn this into a low-scoring grinder where one play can swing momentum. If Minnesota can force turnovers and keep Detroit's offense off the field, they have a chance. But asking a rookie with a 5.0 QBR to beat a desperate Lions team on Christmas Day is a tall order.
Final Thoughts
This is a game of desperation versus elimination. Detroit HAS to win. Minnesota is playing for nothing but pride. Normally, that dynamic can cut both ways. But when you factor in the quarterback situation, the historical ATS trends, and Detroit's bounce-back ability, the Lions are the clear play here.
Max Brosmer is making his second NFL start. His first one was a disaster. J.J. McCarthy is hurt again. The Vikings have turned the ball over 29 times this season. Detroit takes care of the ball better than anyone and is 9-1 ATS against Minnesota over the last 10 meetings. Sometimes the numbers tell you everything you need to know.
The Lions aren't going to let their season die in Minneapolis on Christmas Day. Not with Dan Campbell coaching. Not with everything on the line. Detroit covers this number, and it might not be close.
