Houston Texans @ 
Los Angeles ChargersWild Card Revenge Game at SoFi
This is more than just a Week 17 game with playoff seeding implications. This is a rematch of last January's Wild Card Playoff game, and both teams remember exactly what happened. The Houston Texans humiliated the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12 at NRG Stadium, forcing Justin Herbert into a four-interception nightmare while sacking him four times. For context, Herbert threw more picks in that single playoff loss than he did in the entire 2024 regular season combined (three). That game wasn't just a loss for LA - it was a statement about where DeMeco Ryans' defense stands among the NFL's elite.
Here's why this rematch fascinates me: both teams have been absolutely cooking since mid-November. The Texans enter on a seven-game winning streak - the longest active streak in the NFL - while the Chargers have won four straight under Jim Harbaugh. Houston has already clinched the AFC South for the second consecutive year, but they're not playing for a participation trophy. A win here keeps their path to a potential first-round bye alive. The Chargers clinched their playoff spot last week, meaning both teams can focus entirely on playoff positioning rather than survival.
The 39.5 total tells you everything you need to know about how Vegas views this matchup. This is projected as a slugfest between two elite defenses, and that assessment is dead-on. Houston's unit under DeMeco Ryans has been the best in football this season, while Jesse Minter's Chargers defense ranks among the top five in most categories. Unders are 32-17 in Texans games since Ryans became head coach in 2023 - tied with Kansas City for the highest under rate in the league during that span. When Houston shows up, offense becomes optional.
Texans: CB Derek Stingley Jr. (DNP Wednesday) and CB Kamari Lassiter (DNP Wednesday) - both starters held out. OT Trent Brown and OT Aireontae Ersery also non-participants. WR Tank Dell out for season (torn ACL/MCL/LCL, dislocated kneecap). Nico Collins expected to play despite Week 16 catch rate drop.
Chargers: OT Rashawn Slater (torn patellar tendon) - OUT for season. OT Joe Alt (high ankle sprain) - OUT indefinitely. OT Trey Pipkins also sidelined. Starting tackles: Bobby Hart (RT), Austin Deculus (LT). Herbert sacked 49 times this season - career high.
The Best Defense in Football
Houston Texans (10-5)Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)Let me break down what makes Houston's defense so terrifying. They don't just lead the NFL in points allowed (16.6 per game) and yards allowed (272.3 per game) - they do it while facing competent offenses week after week. DeMeco Ryans runs an aggressive, disruptive scheme that forces quarterbacks into uncomfortable situations. When Herbert faced this unit in January, he was a mess. Four interceptions. Four sacks. A performance so bad it overshadowed everything the Chargers accomplished during the regular season.
But here's where it gets interesting for the Chargers' perspective. That Wild Card disaster happened with Herbert operating behind a functional offensive line featuring Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Now? Slater is done for the year after tearing his patellar tendon in training camp. Alt went down with a high ankle sprain and is out indefinitely. The current starting tackles are Bobby Hart and Austin Deculus - names that should make any Chargers fan nervous. Herbert is being pressured on 42.4% of his dropbacks this season, the highest rate in the NFL. He's already been sacked 49 times, a career high, and that number will only grow against Houston's pass rush.
C.J. Stroud presents an interesting matchup against LA's zone-heavy defense. Here's the split that should concern Houston: Stroud is brilliant against man coverage - completing 63.6% with 13 touchdowns and zero interceptions. But against zone? He's thrown just three touchdowns and all six of his interceptions. The Chargers run zone on 82.9% of their defensive snaps, the second-highest rate in football. They've collected 17 interceptions as a team, tied for third most in the league. If there's a defense designed to exploit Stroud's weaknesses, it's this one.
Betting Market Analysis
The Chargers opened as 2.5-point favorites and the line has tightened to LAC -2, reflecting sharp money on Houston. The Texans come in with an 8-7 ATS record overall but just 3-4 ATS on the road. The Chargers are 8-6-1 ATS with an impressive 4-2-1 ATS mark at SoFi Stadium. Home-field advantage matters here - the Chargers play well in front of their crowd.
That 39.5 total is the lowest of any NFL game this week, and for good reason. Both defenses force low-scoring affairs. Houston has gone under in the majority of their games under Ryans, and the Chargers aren't running a high-volume passing attack under Harbaugh. Jim Harbaugh's offense prioritizes ball control, clock management, and physical football - not shootouts. Herbert isn't being asked to carry the team through the air; he's being asked to manage games and avoid turnovers.
The implied win probability has Houston at 49.5%, essentially a coin flip with a slight lean toward LA based on home-field. Historically, the Texans are 3-6 all-time against the Chargers in the regular season, though that Wild Card domination shifted the recent narrative. This feels like a game decided by a field goal or less, which makes the 2-point spread feel accurate.
Keys To Victory
For the Texans to win: Protect C.J. Stroud and find ways to attack man coverage, even if LA stays in zone. The Texans need to force the Chargers to abandon their zone tendencies by gashing them on the ground or hitting intermediate routes before the zone can close. Defensively, exploit that decimated offensive line. Herbert behind backup tackles against Houston's pass rush is a recipe for disaster. Recreate the Wild Card pressure and force turnovers. If Stroud can avoid interceptions against zone coverage - something he's struggled with all year - Houston wins this game.
For the Chargers to win: Stay in zone coverage and dare Stroud to beat them. The numbers say he can't, and that's where LA's defensive identity lies. On offense, Herbert needs to get the ball out quick - he can't afford to hold it against this front. The running game with J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards must establish itself early. Harbaugh's system works when the Chargers control the clock and keep drives alive. If Herbert is dropping back 40+ times against this Houston pass rush, the Chargers lose. Lean on the rushing attack, hit quick passes, and don't let this game turn into a shootout - even though neither team wants that.
Final Thoughts
This game has everything you want in a late-season NFL showcase. You've got the revenge narrative from last year's Wild Card. You've got two teams peaking at the right time - Houston with seven straight wins, LA with four. You've got two elite defenses that make every yard feel like a struggle. And you've got legitimate playoff seeding implications for both squads. Neither team is playing for survival; they're playing for positioning.
The Chargers' offensive line situation is genuinely concerning. Herbert is the most sacked quarterback in football this year, and now he's facing the defense that made him look lost in January. But the Chargers at home under Harbaugh have been excellent, and that zone defense is perfectly suited to attack Stroud's documented weakness. If LA can protect Herbert just enough and force Houston into third-and-longs, they have a real shot at revenge.
For Houston, this is about proving that Wild Card win wasn't a fluke. The Texans have the best defense in football, and DeMeco Ryans knows exactly how to attack Herbert. If the cornerback situation sorts itself out by Saturday (Stingley and Lassiter are huge losses if they can't play), Houston's secondary can disrupt LA's passing game the same way it did eleven months ago. The key is Stroud staying disciplined against zone coverage - something he hasn't done all season.
Low total, tight spread, elite defenses, playoff implications, revenge narrative. This is exactly the kind of game that could finish 17-14. Both teams want to grind, control the clock, and force the other quarterback into mistakes. Expect a physical, ugly, beautiful game of December football.
