Baltimore Ravens @ 
Pittsburgh SteelersWin Or Go Home: The AFC North Finale
This is the game the NFL scheduling gods dreamed about when they put Ravens-Steelers in the Sunday Night Football slot for Week 18. Winner takes the AFC North and the #4 seed. Loser goes home. No tiebreakers, no scenarios, no "if this team wins and that team loses." Just pure, brutal, winner-take-all football between two of the league's most storied rivals.
The 8-8 Baltimore Ravens travel to Acrisure Stadium to face the 9-7 Pittsburgh Steelers in an elimination game that carries every ounce of playoff intensity. Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker after winning the Week 14 matchup 27-22, which means the Steelers can clinch with either a win OR a tie. Baltimore needs a victory outright. There's no margin for error.
What makes this fascinating is the trajectory of both teams. The Steelers won their first three games and looked like legitimate Super Bowl contenders before a brutal three-game losing streak brought them back to earth. Their Week 17 loss to Cleveland, 13-6, was perhaps their worst performance of the season. Meanwhile, Baltimore is riding high after demolishing Green Bay 41-24 last Saturday, with Derrick Henry looking absolutely unstoppable.
The market opened with Baltimore as a 3-point road favorite, and that's since ticked up to -3.5. Pittsburgh hasn't been a home underdog in a meaningful game in years, but here we are. The books are telling you they trust Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry more than Russell Wilson and this Steelers offense that's been sputtering for weeks.
Derrick Henry Is Running Angry
If you watched the Ravens destroy Green Bay last week, you witnessed something special. Derrick Henry didn't just run the football. He punished the Packers. 216 rushing yards. Four touchdowns. It was vintage King Henry, the kind of performance that reminds you why he's one of the most physically dominant players in NFL history.
That game wasn't an outlier either. Henry has rushed for 100+ yards in three consecutive games and found the end zone six times over the last two weeks alone. At 31 years old, he's not supposed to be doing this. Running backs are supposed to decline. Their legs are supposed to give out. But Henry keeps defying Father Time, churning out yards and dragging defenders into the ground.
The scary part for Pittsburgh? They've been vulnerable against the run all season. The Steelers rank just 18th in rushing yards allowed per game and have given up some explosive runs to physical backs. Henry is the most physical back in football. If Baltimore can establish the ground game early and control the clock, this could get ugly.
Here's the thing about Derrick Henry in big games: he elevates. His playoff numbers are absurd. His divisional games are legendary. And now he has a chance to bulldoze his way into the postseason against Pittsburgh's defense in primetime. This is exactly the kind of moment Henry lives for.
Pittsburgh's Turnover Machine
If there's one thing keeping the Steelers in this game, it's their ability to force turnovers. Pittsburgh has forced 39 fumbles this season, the second-most in the entire NFL. That's not luck. That's scheme, technique, and violent tackling. T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense have made stripping the ball an art form.
The concern? They haven't been able to turn those turnovers into points lately. The Steelers have been outgained by 903 yards this season, the sixth-worst yards differential in the NFL. Since the 1970 merger, only four teams have made the playoffs despite being outgained by 800+ yards during the regular season. Pittsburgh's margin for error is razor-thin.
What's interesting is the historical dominance. The Steelers are 7-2 outright and ATS against the Ravens since 2021. That's not a small sample. That's four years of consistently beating Baltimore when it matters. Mike Tomlin knows how to game plan for this offense, and T.J. Watt has consistently disrupted Lamar Jackson's rhythm in big moments.
The question is whether Pittsburgh's struggling offense can hold up their end of the bargain. Russell Wilson has been a shell of his former self down the stretch. The running game has disappeared. And the offensive line has been giving up pressure at an alarming rate. You can't win a game on defense alone when you're facing an offense this explosive.
The Quarterback Matchup
Baltimore Ravens (8-8)Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)The quarterback contrast couldn't be starker. Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP playing some of the best football of his career. He missed last week's game against Green Bay with a back injury, but the team has confirmed he's playing tonight. When healthy, Lamar is the most dynamic player in football - a dual-threat nightmare who can beat you with his arm or his legs.
Russell Wilson, on the other hand, has been fading. The Steelers brought him in to be the veteran leader who could elevate this offense, but it hasn't worked out that way. Wilson has just six total touchdowns in his last four games, and the offense has looked completely stagnant. The deep ball that used to be his signature has been missing, and his decision-making under pressure has been questionable.
Injury Report
Lamar Jackson (QB) - WILL PLAY: Missed Week 17 with a back injury but practiced all week and has been cleared. No limitations expected.
Mark Andrews (TE) - ACTIVE: Has been dealing with nagging injuries but expected to play. Key red zone target for Jackson.
T.J. Watt (OLB) - ACTIVE: Played through minor injuries all season. Will be full go for this elimination game.
Najee Harris (RB) - PROBABLE: Has dealt with ankle issues but expected to play. Workload may be managed.
Key Betting Trends
Ravens: 6-10 ATS this season (-5.05 units). 2-5 ATS in last 7 games. 2-5 ATS in last 7 games against Pittsburgh. BUT 7-3 SU in last 10 games overall.
Steelers: 8-8 ATS this season (-0.65 units). 7-2 SU and ATS vs Ravens since 2021. 4-1 SU in last 5 Week 18 games. Lost Week 17 to Cleveland 13-6.
Head-to-Head: Pittsburgh won Week 14 meeting 27-22 at home. Steelers own the tiebreaker and can clinch with a tie. Baltimore MUST win outright.
Situational Analysis
The situational pressure is entirely on Baltimore. The Steelers can clinch with a tie. The Ravens cannot. That means Pittsburgh can play conservatively, run the ball, control the clock, and force Baltimore to take risks. John Harbaugh's team has to attack, which could play right into T.J. Watt's hands.
But here's the counter: Lamar Jackson is healthy, Derrick Henry is running hot, and this Baltimore offense at full strength is nearly unstoppable. The Ravens averaged 30.2 points per game over their last five wins. Pittsburgh's defense is good, but are they good enough to slow down this freight train?
The total of 41.5 feels low for two teams with playoff-caliber offenses, but both defenses have been elite at times. The under has hit in four of the last six Ravens games, and Pittsburgh's offense has been so anemic that low-scoring affairs have become the norm. This could easily be a 24-17 type game decided by one or two key plays.
Weather could be a factor. Acrisure Stadium in January means cold, potentially windy conditions that favor the running game and defense. That benefits Derrick Henry, but it also benefits a Pittsburgh team that wants to slow the game down and limit possessions.
Keys To Victory
For Baltimore to win: Feed Derrick Henry and establish the ground game early. Pittsburgh's run defense has been exploitable, and Henry in cold weather with playoff implications is a recipe for a 150+ yard game. Lamar Jackson needs to take care of the football - no turnovers against a defense that lives on forcing mistakes. On defense, they need to get pressure on Russell Wilson and force him into uncomfortable situations. Wilson has been mistake-prone under duress all season.
For Pittsburgh to win: T.J. Watt needs to wreck this game. If he can consistently pressure Lamar and force bad decisions, the Steelers have a chance. Offensively, they need to sustain drives and keep Lamar Jackson off the field. Time of possession matters. The Steelers can't afford to go three-and-out and give Baltimore short fields. And they need to take care of the ball themselves - this is not a game where you can overcome turnovers against a Ravens offense this explosive.
Final Thoughts
This is why we watch football. Two bitter rivals. Winner takes the division. Loser goes home. No second chances. No consolation prizes. Just 60 minutes to determine who plays on and who goes golfing.
The Ravens are the better team on paper. Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP. Derrick Henry is a future Hall of Famer running at his absolute best. The offense is clicking on all cylinders. But the Steelers have owned this rivalry recently, going 7-2 against Baltimore since 2021. Mike Tomlin doesn't lose these games at home.
The line at Ravens -3.5 feels right. Baltimore should win this game, but Pittsburgh has the defense and the home-field advantage to keep it close. The total of 41.5 is interesting - both offenses have firepower, but both defenses can make stops. Expect a physical, low-scoring affair that comes down to the final minutes.
This is Sunday Night Football at its finest. Acrisure Stadium will be rocking. The stakes couldn't be higher. And one of these teams is going home. Buckle up.
