Dallas Stars @ 
Anaheim DucksThe Rubber Match Nobody Expected
Here's the thing about this series - it's been absolutely chaotic. Game 1 on November 6th? The Ducks lit up the Stars 7-5 at home. Game 2 on December 19th? Dallas returned the favor with an emphatic 8-3 beatdown. That's 23 combined goals in two games between these teams. So much for defensive hockey. Tonight at Honda Center, we get the rubber match, and based on how wild the first two games have been, buckle up.
Dallas enters this game as a road favorite at -120, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a comfortable spot. The Stars have been in an absolute tailspin - 1-3-4 in their last eight games after going 8-2-1 in their first 11 games of December. That's a stunning reversal for a team that looked like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Meanwhile, Anaheim has been quietly keeping themselves in the playoff conversation, sitting just outside the wild card picture and playing meaningful hockey in January for the first time in years.
The market has Dallas favored, and on paper that makes sense. The Stars have the better record (27-10-9 vs 21-21-3), the better goal differential, and arguably the most talented forward in hockey right now in Mikko Rantanen. But recent form matters, and Dallas hasn't looked like Dallas lately. They're bleeding goals, struggling on the power play, and watching their commanding Central Division lead shrink by the day. This is a dangerous spot for a slumping favorite on the road against a team that already beat them once this season.
Game 1 (Nov 6 @ ANA): Ducks 7, Stars 5. Anaheim exploded for 4 second-period goals. Lukas Dostal stopped 33 of 38.
Game 2 (Dec 19 @ DAL): Stars 8, Ducks 3. Dallas revenge game. Rantanen had 4 points. Oettinger dominant.
Combined: 23 goals in 2 games. Both home teams won. If pattern holds, Ducks have the edge tonight.
The Rantanen Effect: Dallas's $96 Million Man
Dallas Stars (27-10-9)Anaheim Ducks (21-21-3)Look, I've watched a lot of Mikko Rantanen over the years, and what he's doing in Dallas is special. The guy has 61 points in 44 games - that's a 114-point pace over a full season. When Dallas acquired him from Carolina (who had just gotten him from Colorado in that wild trade saga), they paid a king's ransom. Logan Stankoven plus two conditional first-round picks plus two third-round picks. Then they gave Rantanen an 8-year, $96 million extension. That's how much they believe in this core.
And here's the thing - Rantanen absolutely destroyed Anaheim in Game 2. He had 4 points in that 8-3 victory, looking completely unstoppable. The Ducks had no answer for him. Dallas's top line with Rantanen and Jason Robertson is one of the most dangerous duos in hockey when they're clicking. The question is whether they're clicking right now, because the team as a whole has looked out of sorts during this slide.
Tyler Seguin's absence looms large. He's one of the Stars' best players, and without him in the lineup, they're missing a key piece of their offensive puzzle. Add in Jamie Benn's injury struggles - he's already missed 22 games total this season between the punctured lung and the nose fracture - and Dallas's depth is being tested. Benn is expected to play tonight after returning against the Kings on January 12th, but he'll be wearing a visor for the first time in his 15-year career. That's an adjustment for a guy who's been grandfathered in under the old rules.
On the Anaheim side, Leo Carlsson is having the breakout season everyone predicted. The 21-year-old Swede was the #2 overall pick in 2023, and he's living up to that billing with 44 points so far. Combined with Cutter Gauthier's 20 goals, the Ducks have a young core that's starting to look dangerous. If Troy Terry returns from his day-to-day injury tonight, that's a massive boost to an already solid offense.
December Started Hot: 8-2-1 in first 11 games of the month.
Then the Wheels Fell Off: 1-3-4 since, including losses to Montreal, Edmonton, and Carolina.
Key Injuries: Tyler Seguin out. Jamie Benn missed 3 games. Lian Bichsel on IR.
What's Wrong: Defense has been leaky, power play has cooled, and goaltending has been inconsistent.
Why This Game Could Be a Shootout (Again)
The total is set at 6.5, which feels almost low given what we've seen in this series. Game 1 produced 12 goals. Game 2 produced 11 goals. That's an average of 11.5 goals per game between these teams. Now, some of that is variance - you don't expect 7-5 and 8-3 scorelines every night. But there's something about this matchup that creates chaos.
Dallas has the NHL's 3rd-best offense at 3.40 goals per game. Their power play is clicking at 30%, second in the league. When the Stars are on, they can bury teams. The problem is they haven't been "on" lately. During their 1-3-4 slide, they've allowed 4+ goals in five of those eight games. That's not a recipe for success against a Ducks team that already showed they can score on Dallas.
Anaheim's offense has been sneaky good. Leo Carlsson and Cutter Gauthier give them a one-two punch of young talent. They're not as statistically dominant as Dallas, but they can hang with anyone on a given night. And crucially, they have home ice advantage in a building where they've been solid at 12-8-1 this season.
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently. Dallas's games have averaged over 6 goals during their slide. Anaheim had that 7-4 loss to Washington last week. If you're looking for a defensive struggle, this probably isn't your game. Everything points to goals - the season series history, the recent form of both teams, and the way these rosters match up.
The Betting Market
Dallas opened as a road favorite around -115 and has moved to -120. That's modest line movement, suggesting the market respects the Stars' talent but isn't fully confident given their recent struggles. The puck line is Dallas -1.5, which is the standard NHL spread. Given how volatile this series has been, that feels risky either way.
The total opened at 6.5 and has held steady. Sharp money hasn't aggressively pushed it either direction, which is interesting given the offensive fireworks we've seen. Maybe the market expects some regression, or maybe it's just waiting to see if the pattern of high-scoring games continues.
The Ducks at +100 are a live underdog. Home ice, already beat Dallas once this year, playing meaningful hockey for the first time in years. If Troy Terry is back in the lineup, that's a boost. Against a slumping Stars team that has looked vulnerable, Anaheim represents solid value. Dallas at -120 is the "talent" play - betting on the better team to eventually right the ship. The question is whether tonight is the night that happens or whether the slide continues.
Keys To Victory
For the Stars to win: Get Mikko Rantanen going early. He dominated Game 2, and if he's locked in, Dallas has too much firepower for Anaheim. Jake Oettinger needs to be sharp - he can't allow 5+ goals like he did in Game 1. Take advantage of the power play, which has been elite all season. And Jamie Benn needs to provide leadership and physicality in his return - the Stars need his presence.
For the Ducks to win: Win the special teams battle. Dallas's power play is deadly, so stay disciplined and out of the box. Get contributions from the young core - Carlsson and Gauthier need to match the star power on the other side. Lukas Dostal has to steal some saves, as he did in Game 1. And if Troy Terry is back, get him involved immediately - his presence changes the offensive dynamic.
Final Thoughts
This is one of those games where recent form clashes with overall talent. Dallas has the better roster, the better record, and arguably the best forward in hockey right now in Mikko Rantanen. But they've been a mess for the past two weeks, going 1-3-4 and looking nothing like a Stanley Cup contender. Road games in the middle of a slump are dangerous spots.
Anaheim, meanwhile, has been the feel-good story of the NHL season. A team that was supposed to be rebuilding is playing playoff-caliber hockey. Leo Carlsson is emerging as a franchise player. Cutter Gauthier is scoring at will. They already beat Dallas once, and they're at home tonight. The Ducks have every reason to believe they can pull the upset again.
The history of this series tells us to expect goals - lots of them. Games 1 and 2 combined for 23 goals. Both home teams won. If that pattern holds, Anaheim has the edge tonight. Dallas is too talented to stay down forever, but this feels like a dangerous spot for a team that hasn't been able to find its footing.
The 6.5 total feels almost conservative given what we've seen. Whether you like Dallas to right the ship or Anaheim to protect home ice, this game should be entertaining. Monday night hockey with playoff implications for both teams? That's what January is all about in the NHL.
