New York Knicks @ 
Golden State WarriorsBrunson vs Curry: A Point Guard Masterclass
This is the kind of game that makes you fall in love with basketball all over again. Two of the most electrifying point guards in the NBA going head-to-head on Thursday night. Jalen Brunson is averaging 28.9 points per game and has topped 20 points in 18 consecutive games. Stephen Curry is putting up 28.1 points per game and just moved into 21st place on the NBA's all-time scoring list. These two are playing at an elite level, and tonight they're in the same building.
The Knicks come in with a sparkling 26-14 record, sitting comfortably in 2nd place in the Eastern Conference. Under new head coach Mike Brown, New York has evolved into a blue-collar team that grinds out wins without a traditional superstar but with a collection of emerging talent that plays connected basketball. Brunson is the engine, but this team wins because everyone buys in.
Golden State is 22-19 and 3rd in the Pacific Division - not where they expected to be, but still dangerous. The Warriors traded for Jimmy Butler in February 2025, fundamentally changing their identity. Curry is still Curry, but this is now a team built differently than those championship squads. At home in Chase Center, they're a different animal. The Warriors are 11-9 at home and have been playing better ball recently, including a dominant 137-103 beatdown of the Kings.
All-Time: Warriors lead 187-165 in 352 regular season meetings
Last 3 Seasons: Warriors 3-1 vs Knicks
2024-25 Season: Warriors won both matchups (97-94 and 114-102 in March)
Since 2005: Warriors 29-12 vs Knicks (110.5 PPG avg)
The Star Power Showdown
New York Knicks (26-14)Golden State Warriors (22-19)Let me tell you about Jalen Brunson's December, because it was absolutely ridiculous. The man averaged 30.6 points, 7.1 assists, and 3.2 rebounds while shooting 47.5% from the field and 40.5% from beyond the arc. That earned him Eastern Conference Player of the Month honors, and it wasn't even close. He's had five games of 40+ points this season, including a 47-point explosion against the Heat where he went 15-26 from the field and 6-13 from three.
But Curry is Curry. At 37 years old, he's still doing things that defy explanation. That recent 27-point, 10-assist game against Sacramento was his second double-double of the season, and it showed he can still take over whenever he wants. The man just passed Kevin Garnett on the all-time scoring list. He's a four-time champion, two-time MVP, and he's playing like someone who still has something to prove.
The Jimmy Butler addition has been fascinating. When Miami traded him to Golden State last February, it fundamentally changed what the Warriors are. This isn't the motion offense, ball-movement team that won championships. This is a more physical, grind-it-out squad that plays through Butler and Curry in different ways. It's worked at times and struggled at others - hence the 22-19 record.
Scoring Streak: 20+ points in 18 consecutive games
December Stats: 30.6 PPG, 7.1 APG, 3.2 RPG (EC Player of the Month)
40+ Point Games: 5 this season (20th career 40-piece)
Efficiency: Career-best 85.2% from the free throw line
The 7.5-Point Spread Breakdown
The market has Golden State as 7.5-point favorites, which is significant. That's a lot of points to lay against a team as well-coached as the Knicks. But here's what the line is telling us: the Warriors at home against a Knicks team that is 6-13 ATS on the road is a reliable spot. New York wins games, sure - they're 26-14 overall - but they don't cover on the road. That's a critical distinction.
Golden State is 7-5-1 ATS when favored by 7.5 points or more this season. That's a 58% cover rate, which is solid. At home specifically, they're 11-9 ATS - not dominant, but profitable. The Warriors know how to take care of business at Chase Center, especially against Eastern Conference teams making the long trip west.
The Knicks' overall ATS record of 19-20-1 is essentially break-even, which tells you that while they're a good team, the market has them figured out. They're not giving you value very often. And that road ATS record of 6-13? That's brutal. Teams that consistently fail to cover on the road usually have a reason - whether it's travel fatigue, lack of depth, or simply not being as good as their record suggests.
Road ATS Record: 6-13 (31.6% cover rate)
Overall ATS: 19-20-1 (48.7% cover rate)
The Pattern: Knicks win games but don't cover spreads away from MSG
Why It Matters: Even with Brunson playing elite, they struggle to beat the number on the road
Why the Total is Set at 227.5
The 227.5 total reflects two high-scoring point guards going at it. Brunson averages 28.9, Curry averages 28.1 - that's 57 combined points from just the lead guards. Add in supporting casts on both sides, and you can see how this game could easily push past the total.
But let's look deeper. The Knicks play a more methodical style under Mike Brown. They don't push pace like some teams; they grind possessions and execute in the half court. Golden State, even with Curry, isn't the high-octane offense they were in the Kerr dynasty years. This isn't the 2015-16 Warriors putting up 115+ every night.
My read on the total: this game stays close enough that both teams are playing careful basketball down the stretch. If it's a blowout either way, you might see garbage time points push it over. But in a competitive game between two well-coached teams, I'd lean toward the under. Both teams are capable of locking in defensively when it matters.
Advanced Stats Deep Dive
The Knicks rank well in offensive rating this season - their 118.2 points per 100 possessions is top-10 in the league. Brunson drives that number almost single-handedly. When he's cooking, the Knicks' offense hums. When he's off, they can stall. The supporting cast is solid but not spectacular, which is why Brunson's individual brilliance matters so much.
Golden State's defensive rating has been inconsistent. Some nights they lock in and look like a playoff team. Other nights, opponents carve them up. The Jimmy Butler addition was supposed to help defensively, but the fit has been uneven. Butler is still an elite defender individually, but the team defense hasn't clicked consistently.
One number jumps out: the Warriors' home net rating is significantly better than their road net rating. At Chase Center, with the crowd behind them and no travel fatigue, Golden State plays like a 50-win team. On the road, they're mediocre. Tonight is at home, which favors the Warriors significantly in any statistical projection.
Knicks Offensive Rating: 118.2 (Top 10 in NBA)
Warriors Home Net Rating: +5.3 (significantly better than road)
Brunson Usage Rate: 31.2% (among league's highest)
Curry's eFG%: 58.3% (elite efficiency)
Keys To Victory
For the Knicks to pull the road upset: Jalen Brunson needs to have one of those games. When he goes for 35+, the Knicks can beat anyone anywhere. Josh Hart returning is huge - his energy and rebounding were sorely missed during his eight-game absence. New York needs to control the glass and limit second-chance points. Stay disciplined on defense and don't let Curry get hot from three early - once he sees one go in, he becomes nearly impossible to stop. And finally, embrace the underdog role. The Knicks have the better record; they shouldn't be 7.5-point dogs. Use that as motivation.
For the Warriors to cover at home: Stephen Curry sets the tone early. When Curry scores in the first quarter, Golden State usually wins. Get Jimmy Butler involved as a playmaker, not just a scorer - he can break down the Knicks' defense and create for others. The home crowd at Chase Center needs to be a factor; this is a nationally televised game against a New York team - make it loud. Don't let Brunson get to his spots in the mid-range; force him into contested pull-ups rather than his comfortable floaters. And close strong - the Warriors have struggled with fourth-quarter execution at times this season. Tonight, finish the job.
Final Thoughts
This is exactly the kind of game that makes the NBA regular season worth watching. Two elite point guards, two proud franchises, and a Thursday night stage on TNT. Brunson vs Curry is a generational matchup - the new wave against the legend who changed how basketball is played.
The 7.5-point spread is interesting. On one hand, the Knicks are the better team by record (26-14 vs 22-19) and have the hotter star (Brunson's December was ridiculous). On the other hand, the Knicks are 6-13 ATS on the road, and the Warriors are 3-1 against them over the last three seasons. History and trends favor Golden State at home.
The total of 227.5 could go either way. You've got the firepower on both sides to push over, but both teams are capable of slowing it down and grinding when needed. Mike Brown's Knicks play a controlled style, and the Warriors aren't the high-scoring machine they once were.
Whether you're watching for Brunson's brilliance, Curry's timeless excellence, or just great basketball, this game delivers. Enjoy the show at Chase Center tonight.
