MLB Starting-Pitcher Projection Model

2026-08-23 · 29 starters · scroll for K, ER, Hits, Walks

Model Verification / Diagnostics

Slate date2026-08-23
Model run2026-08-23T08:00:24
Model versionpitcher-v1.1
Projection data sourceMLB StatsAPI (statsapi.mlb.com)
Starters loaded29
Projections logged116
Market sourcefanduel_board
Market statusOK
K lines captured (real)21
Model leans (with line)21
Qualified picks (edge-gated)18
Mock / fabricated data usedNO
Grading summary (last graded slate)Last graded slate 2026-08-22 — earned_runs: n=29, MAE=1.29 · hits_allowed: n=29, MAE=1.61 · strikeouts: n=29, MAE=1.86 · walks: n=29, MAE=1.03  |  vs-line record: 13-8

Strikeouts per Start

PitcherK / Start
(season)		K / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		K vs
opp		K%
vs opp		 Opp K /
game (yr)		Opp exp K
(this start)		MODEL
expected K
Sean Newcombvs New York MetsRate Field
 6.40 7.00 201 56 27.9% 8.48 6.59 6.94IP 7.0 · park 1.02 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.0
Cal Quantrillvs Los Angeles AngelsGlobe Life Field
 4.87 5.18 182 39 21.4% 9.43 7.34 6.82IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 5.0
Shane Bazvs Tampa Bay RaysOriole Park at Camden Yards
 5.28 5.74 46 15 32.6% 7.08 4.58 6.65IP 5.8 · park 1.01 · vs 1.20 · L3 7.0
Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis CardinalsCitizens Bank Park
 7.19 6.21 100 25 25.0% 7.79 5.38 6.52IP 6.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.03 · L3 6.3
Blake Snellvs Pittsburgh PiratesUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 6.67 6.22 101 32 31.7% 9.44 5.25 6.50IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.05 · L3 6.7
Tyler Mahlevs Milwaukee BrewersJourney Bank Ballpark
 5.14 5.48 195 66 33.8% 8.38 5.02 6.47IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 6.3
Shane Drohanvs Atlanta BravesJourney Bank Ballpark
 6.91 6.91 0 - - 8.09 6.29 6.41IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Nolan McLeanvs Chicago White SoxRate Field
 6.48 6.55 0 - - 9.12 5.79 6.04IP 5.7 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Carlos Rodónvs Toronto Blue JaysYankee Stadium
 5.60 5.53 208 61 29.3% 7.30 4.08 5.61IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.12 · L3 5.0
José Sorianovs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 5.44 5.30 28 7 25.0% 9.24 5.72 5.56IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.11 · L3 3.0
Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 4.63 4.42 36 8 22.2% 8.38 4.75 5.38IP 5.1 · park 1.00 · vs 1.07 · L3 6.7
Cristian Javiervs AthleticsDaikin Park
 4.29 5.68 249 74 29.7% 8.49 4.90 4.99IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.13 · L3 3.0
Shota Imanagavs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 5.60 5.36 22 4 18.2% 8.62 5.49 4.97IP 5.7 · park 1.07 · vs 0.80 · L3 7.0
Lake Bacharvs Los Angeles DodgersUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 7.33 7.42 22 4 18.2% 7.88 6.13 4.89IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 3.0
Jackson Kentvs Miami MarlinsloanDepot park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.15 4.98 4.88IP 5.5 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.5
Daniel Lynch IVvs Detroit TigersKauffman Stadium
 5.31 5.64 205 37 18.0% 8.54 6.64 4.87IP 7.0 · park 0.98 · vs 0.97 · L3 2.0
Andrew Abbottvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 4.15 4.76 63 15 23.8% 7.26 4.32 4.85IP 5.4 · park 0.99 · vs 1.13 · L3 4.3
Foster Griffinvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 5.24 5.15 0 - - 8.65 5.55 4.74IP 5.8 · park 0.90 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Bryce Millervs Chicago CubsT-Mobile Park
 5.80 5.48 22 4 18.2% 8.63 5.73 4.66IP 6.0 · park 1.07 · vs 0.80 · L3 4.3
Jake Bennettvs San Francisco GiantsFenway Park
 4.36 4.36 0 - - 7.98 5.11 4.57IP 5.8 · park 0.97 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Yusei Kikuchivs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 4.71 4.54 217 52 24.0% 8.53 4.20 4.55IP 4.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.01 · L3 4.7
Bailey Obervs San Diego PadresPetco Park
 3.74 5.09 46 11 23.9% 8.12 4.91 4.48IP 5.4 · park 1.05 · vs 1.05 · L3 2.7
Walker Buehlervs Minnesota TwinsPetco Park
 4.16 4.76 0 - - 8.04 4.30 4.47IP 4.8 · park 1.05 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.0
Janson Junkvs Washington NationalsloanDepot park
 3.67 3.76 62 13 21.0% 8.35 4.78 4.42IP 5.1 · park 1.02 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.7
Brady Bassovs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 0.00 4.44 6 1 16.7% 8.17 4.99 3.94IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Mitch Brattvs Cincinnati RedsChase Field
 3.12 3.12 0 - - 9.51 4.84 3.84IP 4.6 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.3
Tomoyuki Suganovs Cleveland GuardiansCoors Field
 3.14 3.42 43 7 16.3% 8.12 4.86 3.74IP 5.4 · park 0.90 · vs 1.09 · L3 3.7
Nick Martinezvs Baltimore OriolesOriole Park at Camden Yards
 3.46 4.11 80 10 12.5% 9.21 6.04 3.69IP 5.9 · park 1.01 · vs 0.80 · L3 4.7
Matt Wilkinsonvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.11 4.96 2.88IP 5.5 · park 0.97 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.0

Earned Runs per Start

PitcherER / Start
(season)		ER / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		ER vs
opp		ER%
vs opp		 Opp ER /
game (yr)		Opp exp ER
(this start)		MODEL
expected ER
Shane Drohanvs Atlanta BravesJourney Bank Ballpark
 3.00 3.00 0 - - 4.69 3.65 3.33IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Tomoyuki Suganovs Cleveland GuardiansCoors Field
 2.82 2.80 43 - - 4.00 2.40 3.20IP 5.4 · park 1.12 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Jackson Kentvs Miami MarlinsloanDepot park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 4.36 2.67 3.10IP 5.5 · park 0.97 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.0
Bryce Millervs Chicago CubsT-Mobile Park
 2.47 2.63 22 - - 5.12 3.40 3.02IP 6.0 · park 0.94 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Cristian Javiervs AthleticsDaikin Park
 3.71 2.21 249 - - 4.32 2.49 3.01IP 5.2 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Shane Bazvs Tampa Bay RaysOriole Park at Camden Yards
 2.60 2.70 46 - - 4.53 2.93 2.92IP 5.8 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Daniel Lynch IVvs Detroit TigersKauffman Stadium
 2.20 3.37 205 - - 4.50 3.50 2.82IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Lake Bacharvs Los Angeles DodgersUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 2.91 2.99 22 - - 4.99 3.88 2.77IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.7
Jake Bennettvs San Francisco GiantsFenway Park
 2.21 2.21 0 - - 4.02 2.58 2.72IP 5.8 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Foster Griffinvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 2.04 2.16 0 - - 4.77 3.06 2.71IP 5.8 · park 1.12 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Andrew Abbottvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 2.42 2.13 63 - - 4.56 2.72 2.70IP 5.4 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Nick Martinezvs Baltimore OriolesOriole Park at Camden Yards
 2.00 2.63 80 - - 4.48 2.94 2.69IP 5.9 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Bailey Obervs San Diego PadresPetco Park
 2.79 2.51 46 - - 4.28 2.58 2.68IP 5.4 · park 0.96 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Cal Quantrillvs Los Angeles AngelsGlobe Life Field
 2.43 3.30 182 - - 4.11 3.19 2.46IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.7
Nolan McLeanvs Chicago White SoxRate Field
 2.12 1.92 0 - - 4.78 3.03 2.45IP 5.7 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Janson Junkvs Washington NationalsloanDepot park
 2.50 2.67 62 - - 5.19 2.97 2.43IP 5.1 · park 0.97 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Tyler Mahlevs Milwaukee BrewersJourney Bank Ballpark
 2.71 2.47 195 - - 4.98 2.99 2.42IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.0
Shota Imanagavs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 2.40 2.19 22 - - 3.93 2.50 2.31IP 5.7 · park 0.94 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Yusei Kikuchivs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 2.86 2.22 217 - - 3.97 1.95 2.27IP 4.4 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
José Sorianovs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 2.00 2.29 28 - - 4.43 2.74 2.26IP 5.6 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Blake Snellvs Pittsburgh PiratesUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 2.00 1.75 101 - - 4.98 2.77 2.19IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Sean Newcombvs New York MetsRate Field
 1.90 3.10 201 - - 4.19 3.26 2.15IP 7.0 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.0
Walker Buehlervs Minnesota TwinsPetco Park
 2.56 1.97 0 - - 4.61 2.46 2.11IP 4.8 · park 0.96 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.3
Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis CardinalsCitizens Bank Park
 1.73 2.12 100 - - 4.44 3.06 2.10IP 6.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.0
Mitch Brattvs Cincinnati RedsChase Field
 2.12 2.12 0 - - 4.11 2.09 2.06IP 4.6 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 1.83 1.96 36 - - 4.56 2.58 1.97IP 5.1 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.0
Carlos Rodónvs Toronto Blue JaysYankee Stadium
 1.80 2.08 208 - - 3.95 2.21 1.93IP 5.0 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.3
Brady Bassovs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 0.00 2.22 6 - - 4.54 2.77 1.81IP 5.5 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.0
Matt Wilkinsonvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 4.53 2.77 1.73IP 5.5 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.0

Hits per Start

PitcherH / Start
(season)		H / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		H vs
opp		H%
vs opp		 Opp H /
game (yr)		Opp exp H
(this start)		MODEL
expected H
Nick Martinezvs Baltimore OriolesOriole Park at Camden Yards
 5.79 5.86 80 23 28.7% 7.83 5.14 7.32IP 5.9 · park 1.02 · vs 1.20 · L3 7.7
Cristian Javiervs AthleticsDaikin Park
 6.29 3.99 249 53 21.3% 8.26 4.76 6.46IP 5.2 · park 1.01 · vs 1.15 · L3 6.7
Daniel Lynch IVvs Detroit TigersKauffman Stadium
 5.06 7.03 205 56 27.3% 8.14 6.33 6.28IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.18 · L3 2.7
Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 5.21 4.87 36 10 27.8% 8.15 4.61 6.27IP 5.1 · park 1.03 · vs 1.20 · L3 5.7
Shane Drohanvs Atlanta BravesJourney Bank Ballpark
 6.42 6.42 0 - - 8.32 6.47 6.22IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Cal Quantrillvs Los Angeles AngelsGlobe Life Field
 6.04 7.00 182 45 24.7% 7.88 6.13 6.18IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.06 · L3 4.0
Andrew Abbottvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 4.96 4.88 63 16 25.4% 8.22 4.90 6.16IP 5.4 · park 1.02 · vs 1.18 · L3 6.0
Tomoyuki Suganovs Cleveland GuardiansCoors Field
 5.59 5.79 43 11 25.6% 7.78 4.67 6.16IP 5.4 · park 1.12 · vs 1.01 · L3 6.0
Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis CardinalsCitizens Bank Park
 6.12 5.83 100 23 23.0% 8.08 5.59 6.12IP 6.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.01 · L3 6.0
Lake Bacharvs Los Angeles DodgersUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 5.02 5.37 22 8 36.4% 8.72 6.78 6.00IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.0
José Sorianovs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 4.56 4.76 28 8 28.6% 7.55 4.68 5.99IP 5.6 · park 1.03 · vs 1.20 · L3 5.7
Foster Griffinvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 5.00 5.00 0 - - 8.57 5.50 5.84IP 5.8 · park 1.12 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Tyler Mahlevs Milwaukee BrewersJourney Bank Ballpark
 5.14 5.02 195 48 24.6% 8.55 5.13 5.56IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.12 · L3 4.3
Janson Junkvs Washington NationalsloanDepot park
 5.56 5.77 62 17 27.4% 8.50 4.86 5.45IP 5.1 · park 0.97 · vs 1.04 · L3 5.7
Jake Bennettvs San Francisco GiantsFenway Park
 4.93 4.93 0 - - 8.39 5.37 5.35IP 5.8 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Shane Bazvs Tampa Bay RaysOriole Park at Camden Yards
 5.88 5.33 46 9 19.6% 8.77 5.68 5.17IP 5.8 · park 1.02 · vs 0.90 · L3 5.3
Jackson Kentvs Miami MarlinsloanDepot park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.27 5.05 5.08IP 5.5 · park 0.97 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.5
Bailey Obervs San Diego PadresPetco Park
 5.42 5.00 46 10 21.7% 7.85 4.75 5.02IP 5.4 · park 0.96 · vs 0.97 · L3 6.7
Shota Imanagavs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 4.96 4.85 22 5 22.7% 7.60 4.84 5.02IP 5.7 · park 0.94 · vs 1.07 · L3 5.3
Sean Newcombvs New York MetsRate Field
 5.00 6.37 201 45 22.4% 7.95 6.18 4.97IP 7.0 · park 1.02 · vs 1.07 · L3 0.0
Blake Snellvs Pittsburgh PiratesUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 3.67 3.84 101 25 24.8% 8.78 4.88 4.87IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.7
Nolan McLeanvs Chicago White SoxRate Field
 4.44 4.34 0 - - 7.99 5.07 4.82IP 5.7 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Yusei Kikuchivs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 5.00 4.44 217 55 25.3% 7.99 3.93 4.76IP 4.4 · park 1.01 · vs 1.09 · L3 3.7
Carlos Rodónvs Toronto Blue JaysYankee Stadium
 3.40 4.23 208 54 26.0% 8.30 4.64 4.72IP 5.0 · park 1.03 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.0
Brady Bassovs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 0.00 6.08 6 3 50.0% 8.14 4.97 4.36IP 5.5 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Bryce Millervs Chicago CubsT-Mobile Park
 5.00 5.14 22 3 13.6% 8.52 5.66 4.18IP 6.0 · park 0.94 · vs 0.80 · L3 6.7
Walker Buehlervs Minnesota TwinsPetco Park
 4.72 4.19 0 - - 8.26 4.42 4.17IP 4.8 · park 0.96 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Mitch Brattvs Cincinnati RedsChase Field
 4.00 4.00 0 - - 7.52 3.83 3.82IP 4.6 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Matt Wilkinsonvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.40 5.13 3.62IP 5.5 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.0

Walks per Start

PitcherBB / Start
(season)		BB / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		BB vs
opp		BB%
vs opp		 Opp BB /
game (yr)		Opp exp BB
(this start)		MODEL
expected BB
Lake Bacharvs Los Angeles DodgersUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 2.71 2.85 22 8 36.4% 3.70 2.88 3.01IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.3
Jackson Kentvs Miami MarlinsloanDepot park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 3.38 2.07 2.84IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.0
Carlos Rodónvs Toronto Blue JaysYankee Stadium
 2.80 1.91 208 24 11.5% 2.75 1.54 2.71IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.7
Sean Newcombvs New York MetsRate Field
 2.70 3.47 201 24 11.9% 3.21 2.49 2.53IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.05 · L3 1.0
Blake Snellvs Pittsburgh PiratesUNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium
 2.00 2.25 101 21 20.8% 3.54 1.97 2.43IP 5.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.0
Mitch Brattvs Cincinnati RedsChase Field
 2.75 2.75 0 - - 3.58 1.83 2.39IP 4.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Cal Quantrillvs Los Angeles AngelsGlobe Life Field
 1.98 2.23 182 16 8.8% 3.12 2.43 2.38IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.18 · L3 1.3
Shane Drohanvs Atlanta BravesJourney Bank Ballpark
 2.30 2.30 0 - - 2.91 2.26 2.36IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Nolan McLeanvs Chicago White SoxRate Field
 2.16 2.10 0 - - 3.49 2.21 2.33IP 5.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Tyler Mahlevs Milwaukee BrewersJourney Bank Ballpark
 1.90 1.93 195 27 13.8% 4.15 2.49 2.28IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.0
Shane Bazvs Tampa Bay RaysOriole Park at Camden Yards
 1.96 2.05 46 5 10.9% 3.22 2.09 2.26IP 5.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.3
Cristian Javiervs AthleticsDaikin Park
 2.43 2.13 249 34 13.7% 3.34 1.93 2.26IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 0.7
Bryce Millervs Chicago CubsT-Mobile Park
 1.20 1.50 22 3 13.6% 4.22 2.80 2.18IP 6.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.7
Andrew Abbottvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 2.54 1.99 63 5 7.9% 3.38 2.01 2.04IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 0.90 · L3 2.3
Janson Junkvs Washington NationalsloanDepot park
 1.44 1.06 62 4 6.5% 3.45 1.97 1.83IP 5.1 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.3
Cristopher Sánchezvs St. Louis CardinalsCitizens Bank Park
 1.46 1.48 100 6 6.0% 3.25 2.25 1.80IP 6.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.04 · L3 1.7
José Sorianovs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 2.48 2.50 28 2 7.1% 3.64 2.25 1.80IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 1.7
Daniel Lynch IVvs Detroit TigersKauffman Stadium
 2.07 2.60 205 11 5.4% 3.57 2.77 1.77IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 1.3
Walker Buehlervs Minnesota TwinsPetco Park
 1.96 1.50 0 - - 3.25 1.74 1.77IP 4.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Tomoyuki Suganovs Cleveland GuardiansCoors Field
 1.23 1.23 43 4 9.3% 3.63 2.18 1.76IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.0
Shota Imanagavs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 1.28 1.07 22 2 9.1% 3.34 2.13 1.74IP 5.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.0
Foster Griffinvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 1.40 1.52 0 - - 3.15 2.02 1.66IP 5.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Nick Martinezvs Baltimore OriolesOriole Park at Camden Yards
 0.92 1.70 80 6 7.5% 3.78 2.48 1.60IP 5.9 · park 1.00 · vs 1.10 · L3 0.7
Jake Bennettvs San Francisco GiantsFenway Park
 1.21 1.21 0 - - 2.66 1.70 1.52IP 5.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Yusei Kikuchivs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 2.00 1.61 217 16 7.4% 3.18 1.57 1.47IP 4.4 · park 1.00 · vs 0.87 · L3 1.3
Brady Bassovs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 0.00 1.64 6 3 50.0% 3.31 2.02 1.47IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.5
Matt Wilkinsonvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 3.21 1.96 1.18IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.0
Bailey Obervs San Diego PadresPetco Park
 1.37 1.20 46 0 0.0% 3.43 2.07 1.13IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 0.7
Kyle Leahyvs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 1.46 1.53 36 0 0.0% 3.21 1.82 1.03IP 5.1 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 0.0
Model (each stat) = weighted blend of season per-start (35%), career per-start (15%), opponent-expected (30%) and last-3-start form (20%), then multiplied by a vs-team factor (only with 20+ career AB, clamped 0.8-1.2) and a ballpark factor. Opp exp = opponent's per-game rate scaled to the pitcher's average innings (avg IP / 9). % vs opp = career total / career AB against today's opponent. ER/Hits use a run-scoring park factor; walks are park-neutral.