MLB Starting-Pitcher Projection Model

2026-07-21 · 30 starters · scroll for K, ER, Hits, Walks

Model Verification / Diagnostics

Slate date2026-07-21
Model run2026-07-21T08:00:29
Model versionpitcher-v1.1
Projection data sourceMLB StatsAPI (statsapi.mlb.com)
Starters loaded30
Projections logged120
Market sourcefanduel_board
Market statusOK
K lines captured (real)13
Model leans (with line)13
Qualified picks (edge-gated)10
Mock / fabricated data usedNO
Grading summary (last graded slate)Last graded slate 2026-07-20 — earned_runs: n=30, MAE=1.73 · hits_allowed: n=30, MAE=1.66 · strikeouts: n=30, MAE=1.43 · walks: n=30, MAE=0.98  |  vs-line record: 8-7

Strikeouts per Start

PitcherK / Start
(season)		K / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		K vs
opp		K%
vs opp		 Opp K /
game (yr)		Opp exp K
(this start)		MODEL
expected K
Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles DodgersCitizens Bank Park
 7.20 6.56 175 51 29.1% 7.90 5.44 8.33IP 6.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.12 · L3 11.3
Justin Wrobleskivs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 4.87 5.76 29 9 31.0% 8.84 6.57 7.29IP 6.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 7.7
Jack Perkinsvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 8.74 7.92 13 4 30.8% 7.32 5.69 7.28IP 7.0 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 7.0
Chase Burnsvs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 6.56 7.23 0 - - 8.58 5.44 6.50IP 5.7 · park 1.07 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Parker Messickvs Minnesota TwinsProgressive Field
 5.79 5.75 44 16 36.4% 8.18 5.36 6.24IP 5.9 · park 1.02 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.0
Kevin Gausmanvs Tampa Bay RaysRogers Centre
 5.80 5.75 583 153 26.2% 7.15 4.46 6.18IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.07 · L3 7.7
Will Warrenvs Pittsburgh PiratesYankee Stadium
 5.05 5.41 22 8 36.4% 9.47 5.44 6.01IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 4.0
Framber Valdezvs Chicago CubsWrigley Field
 4.58 5.44 41 14 34.1% 8.47 5.33 5.72IP 5.7 · park 0.99 · vs 1.20 · L3 4.0
David Petersonvs Detroit TigersWrigley Field
 5.95 6.79 0 - - 8.75 6.81 5.55IP 7.0 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Kendry Rojasvs Cleveland GuardiansProgressive Field
 0.00 0.00 22 8 36.4% 8.43 5.15 5.50IP 5.5 · park 1.02 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.5
Kohl Drakevs AthleticsChase Field
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.74 5.34 5.29IP 5.5 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 -
Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 5.58 5.89 168 44 26.2% 8.19 5.14 5.22IP 5.6 · park 0.97 · vs 1.04 · L3 4.0
Zac Thorntonvs Milwaukee BrewersAmerican Family Field
 5.00 0.00 0 - - 8.27 5.31 5.21IP 5.8 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Kumar Rockervs Chicago White SoxGlobe Life Field
 5.00 5.08 19 6 31.6% 9.00 5.62 5.20IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Tyler Mahlevs Kansas City RoyalsKauffman Stadium
 4.87 5.28 52 14 26.9% 8.05 4.65 5.18IP 5.2 · park 0.98 · vs 1.13 · L3 4.0
Brandon Sproatvs New York MetsAmerican Family Field
 5.44 5.19 0 - - 8.31 4.73 5.13IP 5.1 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Luinder Avilavs San Francisco GiantsKauffman Stadium
 5.56 5.88 0 - - 7.88 5.51 5.11IP 6.3 · park 0.98 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Ranger Suarezvs Baltimore OriolesFenway Park
 5.71 5.05 100 20 20.0% 9.24 5.51 5.08IP 5.4 · park 0.97 · vs 0.89 · L3 7.3
Walbert Ureñavs St. Louis CardinalsAngel Stadium
 5.20 5.20 0 - - 7.73 4.66 4.98IP 5.4 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Tyler Phillipsvs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 5.23 5.03 0 - - 8.15 6.34 4.88IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Bubba Chandlervs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 4.72 4.84 0 - - 8.99 5.23 4.75IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.0
Reynaldo Lópezvs San Diego PadresTruist Park
 6.00 6.37 75 8 10.7% 8.24 6.27 4.70IP 6.9 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 4.7
Luis Castillovs Cincinnati RedsT-Mobile Park
 5.40 6.14 20 3 15.0% 9.37 6.09 4.65IP 5.8 · park 1.07 · vs 0.80 · L3 4.0
Tatsuya Imaivs Miami MarlinsDaikin Park
 4.85 4.85 0 - - 8.16 3.63 4.51IP 4.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Noah Schultzvs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 4.27 4.27 0 - - 8.42 4.51 4.42IP 4.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Matthew Liberatorevs Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium
 4.63 4.15 35 5 14.3% 9.49 5.20 4.04IP 4.9 · park 1.01 · vs 0.80 · L3 6.0
Walker Buehlervs Atlanta BravesTruist Park
 4.26 4.68 135 30 22.2% 8.04 4.18 3.86IP 4.7 · park 1.00 · vs 0.92 · L3 3.7
Drew Rasmussenvs Toronto Blue JaysRogers Centre
 5.44 5.18 226 41 18.1% 7.24 4.44 3.69IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 3.0
Miles Mikolasvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 3.71 4.91 174 25 14.4% 8.63 6.71 3.52IP 7.0 · park 0.90 · vs 0.85 · L3 2.7
Michael Lorenzenvs Washington NationalsCoors Field
 3.65 3.99 133 26 19.5% 8.32 4.48 3.37IP 4.8 · park 0.90 · vs 1.02 · L3 2.3

Earned Runs per Start

PitcherER / Start
(season)		ER / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		ER vs
opp		ER%
vs opp		 Opp ER /
game (yr)		Opp exp ER
(this start)		MODEL
expected ER
Miles Mikolasvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 4.30 3.37 174 - - 4.77 3.71 4.55IP 7.0 · park 1.12 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.7
Jack Perkinsvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 5.34 4.51 13 - - 4.35 3.38 4.52IP 7.0 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.3
David Petersonvs Detroit TigersWrigley Field
 5.02 3.42 0 - - 4.26 3.31 4.17IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.3
Walker Buehlervs Atlanta BravesTruist Park
 2.79 1.92 135 - - 4.97 2.59 3.41IP 4.7 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 6.7
Luinder Avilavs San Francisco GiantsKauffman Stadium
 3.56 3.03 0 - - 4.11 2.88 3.13IP 6.3 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Michael Lorenzenvs Washington NationalsCoors Field
 3.35 2.30 133 - - 5.47 2.95 3.06IP 4.8 · park 1.12 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Bubba Chandlervs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 2.78 2.67 0 - - 4.75 2.77 3.02IP 5.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Kumar Rockervs Chicago White SoxGlobe Life Field
 2.75 3.05 19 - - 4.84 3.02 3.02IP 5.6 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Tyler Phillipsvs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 2.71 2.99 0 - - 4.54 3.53 2.95IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Framber Valdezvs Chicago CubsWrigley Field
 2.58 2.16 41 - - 5.08 3.20 2.88IP 5.7 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Will Warrenvs Pittsburgh PiratesYankee Stadium
 2.32 2.74 22 - - 5.33 3.06 2.82IP 5.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Kohl Drakevs AthleticsChase Field
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 4.48 2.74 2.79IP 5.5 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 -
Reynaldo Lópezvs San Diego PadresTruist Park
 2.67 2.98 75 - - 4.07 3.10 2.74IP 6.9 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Tyler Mahlevs Kansas City RoyalsKauffman Stadium
 3.07 2.42 52 - - 4.26 2.46 2.73IP 5.2 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Noah Schultzvs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 3.00 3.00 0 - - 4.15 2.22 2.73IP 4.8 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Kevin Gausmanvs Tampa Bay RaysRogers Centre
 2.70 2.40 583 - - 4.46 2.79 2.70IP 5.6 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Luis Castillovs Cincinnati RedsT-Mobile Park
 3.20 2.36 20 - - 4.18 2.72 2.59IP 5.8 · park 0.94 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Justin Wrobleskivs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 2.00 2.80 29 - - 4.38 3.25 2.57IP 6.7 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Brandon Sproatvs New York MetsAmerican Family Field
 2.94 2.90 0 - - 4.08 2.32 2.52IP 5.1 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 2.26 2.20 168 - - 4.23 2.66 2.48IP 5.6 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Drew Rasmussenvs Toronto Blue JaysRogers Centre
 2.00 1.81 226 - - 3.98 2.44 2.46IP 5.5 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Tatsuya Imaivs Miami MarlinsDaikin Park
 2.69 2.69 0 - - 4.48 1.99 2.43IP 4.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Ranger Suarezvs Baltimore OriolesFenway Park
 1.88 2.00 100 - - 4.59 2.74 2.34IP 5.4 · park 1.04 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles DodgersCitizens Bank Park
 1.47 2.22 175 - - 5.19 3.57 2.32IP 6.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Matthew Liberatorevs Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium
 2.74 2.58 35 - - 4.33 2.37 2.30IP 4.9 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.3
Zac Thorntonvs Milwaukee BrewersAmerican Family Field
 1.67 0.00 0 - - 5.10 3.27 2.26IP 5.8 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Parker Messickvs Minnesota TwinsProgressive Field
 1.79 1.79 44 - - 4.78 3.13 2.21IP 5.9 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.0
Walbert Ureñavs St. Louis CardinalsAngel Stadium
 1.73 1.73 0 - - 4.51 2.71 2.19IP 5.4 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Chase Burnsvs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 1.61 1.99 0 - - 4.06 2.57 2.16IP 5.7 · park 0.94 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3
Kendry Rojasvs Cleveland GuardiansProgressive Field
 0.00 0.00 22 - - 4.01 2.45 1.65IP 5.5 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 0.5

Hits per Start

PitcherH / Start
(season)		H / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		H vs
opp		H%
vs opp		 Opp H /
game (yr)		Opp exp H
(this start)		MODEL
expected H
Miles Mikolasvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 7.79 7.18 174 64 36.8% 8.64 6.72 9.70IP 7.0 · park 1.12 · vs 1.20 · L3 7.0
David Petersonvs Detroit TigersWrigley Field
 8.33 6.86 0 - - 7.83 6.09 6.91IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Framber Valdezvs Chicago CubsWrigley Field
 5.58 4.85 41 12 29.3% 8.38 5.28 6.86IP 5.7 · park 1.01 · vs 1.20 · L3 7.0
Will Warrenvs Pittsburgh PiratesYankee Stadium
 5.32 5.33 22 8 36.4% 9.14 5.26 6.56IP 5.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.20 · L3 5.3
Reynaldo Lópezvs San Diego PadresTruist Park
 5.89 6.25 75 27 36.0% 7.49 5.70 6.52IP 6.9 · park 1.01 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.3
Jack Perkinsvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 7.28 6.32 13 5 38.5% 7.89 6.14 6.47IP 7.0 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.0
Luis Castillovs Cincinnati RedsT-Mobile Park
 6.13 5.07 20 7 35.0% 7.72 5.01 6.33IP 5.8 · park 0.94 · vs 1.20 · L3 6.0
Kevin Gausmanvs Tampa Bay RaysRogers Centre
 5.25 5.39 583 162 27.8% 8.61 5.37 6.29IP 5.6 · park 1.01 · vs 1.20 · L3 4.7
Ranger Suarezvs Baltimore OriolesFenway Park
 4.71 5.09 100 29 29.0% 7.90 4.72 6.27IP 5.4 · park 1.04 · vs 1.20 · L3 6.0
Luinder Avilavs San Francisco GiantsKauffman Stadium
 6.44 5.79 0 - - 8.70 6.09 6.08IP 6.3 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Tyler Phillipsvs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 6.44 6.62 0 - - 8.10 6.30 6.06IP 7.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.3
Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles DodgersCitizens Bank Park
 4.07 5.23 175 41 23.4% 8.76 6.04 5.87IP 6.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.13 · L3 5.0
Parker Messickvs Minnesota TwinsProgressive Field
 4.42 5.05 44 12 27.3% 8.36 5.47 5.80IP 5.9 · park 0.99 · vs 1.20 · L3 4.7
Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 5.00 4.81 168 46 27.4% 8.17 5.13 5.67IP 5.6 · park 1.04 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.7
Justin Wrobleskivs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 5.47 5.95 29 6 20.7% 7.95 5.91 5.67IP 6.7 · park 1.03 · vs 0.95 · L3 6.0
Drew Rasmussenvs Toronto Blue JaysRogers Centre
 4.28 4.42 226 53 23.5% 8.11 4.97 5.56IP 5.5 · park 1.01 · vs 1.17 · L3 5.3
Kumar Rockervs Chicago White SoxGlobe Life Field
 5.56 5.83 19 4 21.1% 8.07 5.04 5.52IP 5.6 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.7
Matthew Liberatorevs Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium
 5.42 5.19 35 11 31.4% 8.04 4.40 5.46IP 4.9 · park 0.99 · vs 1.20 · L3 3.0
Walker Buehlervs Atlanta BravesTruist Park
 4.89 4.09 135 32 23.7% 8.49 4.42 5.45IP 4.7 · park 1.01 · vs 1.13 · L3 5.7
Kohl Drakevs AthleticsChase Field
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 8.43 5.15 5.25IP 5.5 · park 1.02 · vs 1.00 · L3 -
Michael Lorenzenvs Washington NationalsCoors Field
 6.70 4.68 133 25 18.8% 8.65 4.66 5.02IP 4.8 · park 1.12 · vs 0.83 · L3 4.7
Bubba Chandlervs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 4.56 4.46 0 - - 7.84 4.57 4.98IP 5.2 · park 1.03 · vs 1.00 · L3 6.0
Chase Burnsvs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 4.28 4.61 0 - - 7.57 4.80 4.41IP 5.7 · park 0.94 · vs 1.00 · L3 5.3
Brandon Sproatvs New York MetsAmerican Family Field
 4.56 4.54 0 - - 7.83 4.46 4.39IP 5.1 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Zac Thorntonvs Milwaukee BrewersAmerican Family Field
 3.67 0.00 0 - - 8.62 5.53 4.37IP 5.8 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Tyler Mahlevs Kansas City RoyalsKauffman Stadium
 5.47 4.88 52 7 13.5% 8.35 4.82 4.22IP 5.2 · park 1.01 · vs 0.80 · L3 5.7
Noah Schultzvs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 3.91 3.91 0 - - 8.18 4.38 4.18IP 4.8 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 4.3
Kendry Rojasvs Cleveland GuardiansProgressive Field
 0.00 0.00 22 7 31.8% 7.67 4.69 4.06IP 5.5 · park 0.99 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.5
Walbert Ureñavs St. Louis CardinalsAngel Stadium
 4.07 4.07 0 - - 8.09 4.87 3.99IP 5.4 · park 0.99 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Tatsuya Imaivs Miami MarlinsDaikin Park
 3.46 3.46 0 - - 8.38 3.72 3.55IP 4.0 · park 1.01 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.3

Walks per Start

PitcherBB / Start
(season)		BB / Start
(career)		 AB vs
opp (career)		BB vs
opp		BB%
vs opp		 Opp BB /
game (yr)		Opp exp BB
(this start)		MODEL
expected BB
Walbert Ureñavs St. Louis CardinalsAngel Stadium
 3.07 3.07 0 - - 3.24 1.95 2.85IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.7
Luinder Avilavs San Francisco GiantsKauffman Stadium
 3.78 3.56 0 - - 2.49 1.74 2.85IP 6.3 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
David Petersonvs Detroit TigersWrigley Field
 3.15 2.97 0 - - 3.54 2.75 2.84IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Michael Lorenzenvs Washington NationalsCoors Field
 1.90 1.89 133 19 14.3% 3.46 1.86 2.77IP 4.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 4.0
Kyle Bradishvs Boston Red SoxFenway Park
 2.63 2.00 168 17 10.1% 3.01 1.89 2.74IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.18 · L3 2.7
Bubba Chandlervs New York YankeesYankee Stadium
 3.06 2.46 0 - - 3.75 2.18 2.69IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Jack Perkinsvs Arizona DiamondbacksChase Field
 2.79 2.98 13 3 23.1% 3.18 2.47 2.63IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Tyler Phillipsvs Houston AstrosDaikin Park
 3.27 2.44 0 - - 3.32 2.58 2.62IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Kendry Rojasvs Cleveland GuardiansProgressive Field
 0.00 0.00 22 6 27.3% 3.58 2.19 2.54IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.0
Tyler Mahlevs Kansas City RoyalsKauffman Stadium
 2.13 1.89 52 6 11.5% 3.18 1.84 2.38IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 2.0
Tatsuya Imaivs Miami MarlinsDaikin Park
 2.54 2.54 0 - - 3.38 1.50 2.32IP 4.0 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Noah Schultzvs Texas RangersGlobe Life Field
 2.64 2.64 0 - - 3.26 1.75 2.31IP 4.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Luis Castillovs Cincinnati RedsT-Mobile Park
 1.87 1.88 20 4 20.0% 3.64 2.36 2.21IP 5.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 1.0
Brandon Sproatvs New York MetsAmerican Family Field
 2.44 2.30 0 - - 3.15 1.79 2.20IP 5.1 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.3
Chase Burnsvs Seattle MarinersT-Mobile Park
 2.06 2.07 0 - - 3.34 2.11 2.20IP 5.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 2.7
Framber Valdezvs Chicago CubsWrigley Field
 1.89 2.03 41 4 9.8% 4.36 2.75 2.19IP 5.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.14 · L3 0.7
Kohl Drakevs AthleticsChase Field
 0.00 0.00 0 - - 3.51 2.15 2.15IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 -
Kevin Gausmanvs Tampa Bay RaysRogers Centre
 1.60 1.57 583 38 6.5% 3.45 2.16 2.05IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 0.97 · L3 3.3
Zac Thorntonvs Milwaukee BrewersAmerican Family Field
 1.67 0.00 0 - - 4.19 2.69 2.03IP 5.8 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.7
Kumar Rockervs Chicago White SoxGlobe Life Field
 2.12 2.13 19 1 5.3% 3.37 2.11 1.96IP 5.6 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 1.3
Zack Wheelervs Los Angeles DodgersCitizens Bank Park
 1.47 1.74 175 13 7.4% 4.00 2.76 1.94IP 6.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.08 · L3 1.0
Walker Buehlervs Atlanta BravesTruist Park
 1.84 1.44 135 10 7.4% 3.00 1.56 1.93IP 4.7 · park 1.00 · vs 1.00 · L3 3.0
Will Warrenvs Pittsburgh PiratesYankee Stadium
 1.74 1.97 22 2 9.1% 3.72 2.14 1.91IP 5.2 · park 1.00 · vs 1.05 · L3 1.3
Reynaldo Lópezvs San Diego PadresTruist Park
 2.78 2.47 75 3 4.0% 3.37 2.57 1.90IP 6.9 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 1.3
Miles Mikolasvs Colorado RockiesCoors Field
 1.48 1.38 174 8 4.6% 3.16 2.46 1.68IP 7.0 · park 1.00 · vs 0.97 · L3 1.3
Parker Messickvs Minnesota TwinsProgressive Field
 1.89 1.63 44 2 4.5% 3.30 2.16 1.62IP 5.9 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 2.3
Matthew Liberatorevs Los Angeles AngelsAngel Stadium
 1.89 1.69 35 2 5.7% 3.21 1.76 1.53IP 4.9 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 2.3
Drew Rasmussenvs Toronto Blue JaysRogers Centre
 0.94 1.34 226 18 8.0% 2.75 1.69 1.40IP 5.5 · park 1.00 · vs 1.20 · L3 0.7
Justin Wrobleskivs Philadelphia PhilliesCitizens Bank Park
 1.33 1.74 29 0 0.0% 2.95 2.19 1.32IP 6.7 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 1.3
Ranger Suarezvs Baltimore OriolesFenway Park
 1.53 1.67 100 4 4.0% 3.86 2.31 1.29IP 5.4 · park 1.00 · vs 0.80 · L3 0.7
Model (each stat) = weighted blend of season per-start (35%), career per-start (15%), opponent-expected (30%) and last-3-start form (20%), then multiplied by a vs-team factor (only with 20+ career AB, clamped 0.8-1.2) and a ballpark factor. Opp exp = opponent's per-game rate scaled to the pitcher's average innings (avg IP / 9). % vs opp = career total / career AB against today's opponent. ER/Hits use a run-scoring park factor; walks are park-neutral.