Thunder @ Mavericks

Wednesday, 7:30 PM ET | American Airlines Center
Line: OKC -6.5 | O/U: 228.5 | OKC: 22-3 | DAL: 12-14

Here's the thing about the defending champion Thunder - they just don't lose. OKC rolls into Dallas at 22-3 with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander putting up MVP numbers every single night. The supporting cast is deep, the defense is elite, and the confidence is sky-high. This team knows they're the best in basketball.

Dallas has been maddeningly inconsistent at 12-14. Luka Doncic is still Luka - a one-man offensive system who can go for 40 any night. But the supporting cast hasn't gelled, and the defense has been atrocious. The Mavs rank bottom-five defensively and that's not going to fly against OKC's balanced attack.

The 6.5-point spread feels fair. Dallas is capable of keeping this close if Luka catches fire, but OKC's depth and defensive versatility should wear them down by the fourth quarter. Thunder win, and probably cover.

Celtics @ Nets

Wednesday, 7:30 PM ET | Barclays Center
Line: BOS -8.5 | O/U: 221.5 | BOS: 14-10 | BKN: 9-17

Boston's title defense hasn't gone as planned with Jayson Tatum's Achilles injury disrupting their chemistry. At 14-10, the Celtics are still playoff-bound but nowhere near the juggernaut status of last season. Jaylen Brown has shouldered the offensive load admirably, while Derrick White continues to be one of the league's most underrated two-way guards.

Brooklyn is in full tank mode at 9-17. They've traded away their veterans and are riding with the young guys to secure lottery positioning. Cam Thomas can score with anyone when he's feeling it, but the Nets lack depth, defense, and direction. This is a developmental year in every sense.

The Celtics should cruise here. Even undermanned, their defensive identity and veteran savvy should overwhelm Brooklyn's young roster. Take Boston and expect a comfortable double-digit win.

Warriors @ Jazz

Wednesday, 9:00 PM ET | Delta Center
Line: GS -4.5 | O/U: 224.5 | GS: 12-13 | UTAH: 8-17

Stephen Curry and the Warriors head to Salt Lake City looking to string together some wins. Golden State at 12-13 is a puzzling team - the offense still hums when Curry is cooking, but the supporting cast has struggled with consistency. The altitude in Utah adds another layer of difficulty.

The Jazz at 8-17 are playing for the future. Lauri Markkanen is their lone All-Star caliber player, and trade rumors swirl constantly. The young guards have shown flashes but lack the experience to close out games against veteran teams. Utah's home court used to be a fortress - now it's just another arena.

This feels like a Warriors win if Curry stays engaged. Utah doesn't have the personnel to guard him, and Golden State's motion offense should find open looks all night. The 4.5-point spread is about right.

Bucks @ Pistons

Wednesday, 7:00 PM ET | Little Caesars Arena
Line: DET -3.5 | O/U: 231.5 | MIL: 10-15 | DET: 18-7

Stop me if you've heard this one - the Pistons are actually good now. Detroit at 18-7 has been the feel-good story of the NBA season. Cade Cunningham has emerged as a legitimate All-Star point guard, the young pieces have developed ahead of schedule, and the culture has completely transformed. They're favorites against the Bucks. Let that sink in.

Milwaukee's 10-15 record has been shocking. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still doing Giannis things, but the team around him has crumbled. Damian Lillard hasn't looked right, and the defense has been uncharacteristically porous. The Bucks need wins badly to stay in the playoff picture.

Home court and momentum favor Detroit. The young Pistons are playing with confidence while Milwaukee looks lost. This is a fade-the-Bucks spot until they prove otherwise.

Nuggets @ Pelicans

Wednesday, 8:00 PM ET | Smoothie King Center
Line: DEN -7.5 | O/U: 226.5 | DEN: 17-8 | NO: 5-20

Nikola Jokic continues his MVP-caliber campaign as Denver sits at 17-8. The Nuggets are starting to find their rhythm, with Jamal Murray rounding back into form and the supporting cast contributing. Jokic's playmaking and scoring are nearly unguardable when he's in rhythm.

New Orleans at 5-20 has been a disaster. Zion Williamson's availability remains a constant question, and the roster around him hasn't stayed healthy either. The Pelicans are one of the league's worst teams and are playing out the string hoping for draft lottery luck.

Denver should roll. The 7.5-point spread might even be light given the talent disparity. Jokic will feast against New Orleans' interior defense, and the Nuggets should win by double digits.