New Year's Day College Basketball

This is the marquee matchup of the New Year's Day college basketball slate. Northern Iowa has been the class of the Missouri Valley Conference all season, sitting at 10-4 with victories over some solid mid-major programs. Ben Jacobson's program consistently overperforms expectations, and this year's squad has legitimate NCAA Tournament aspirations.

Indiana State is in rebuild mode after losing several key players from last year's surprising NCAA Tournament team. At 7-7, they're exactly league average, and their home court advantage at Hulman Center isn't what it used to be. The Sycamores struggle to score (68.2 points per game), and their defense has been inconsistent against quality opponents.

The 9.5-point spread is aggressive for a conference road game, but Northern Iowa's defensive identity should travel. They're allowing just 63.4 points per game and force turnovers at an elite rate. Indiana State will have stretches where they compete, but UNI's experience and depth should grind them down in the second half. Panthers cover in a workmanlike 72-61 victory.

Illinois State is having a nice season under Ryan Pedon. At 9-5, the Redbirds have already surpassed expectations and look like a potential NIT team if they can navigate the Missouri Valley gauntlet. Their offense flows through a balanced attack, and they've shown the ability to beat quality opponents this year.

Evansville is struggling mightily. At 3-11, the Purple Aces are among the worst teams in Division I, and their offense is averaging just 62.1 points per game on 40.2% shooting. They're 0-5 at home this season, which tells you everything about the state of this program. There's simply no resistance to be found in the Ford Center.

The 14.5-point spread is massive, but Evansville has lost by more than that margin multiple times this season. Illinois State should control this game from the opening tip, and the only question is whether they maintain focus throughout. Look for the Redbirds to cruise to a 75-58 type victory - probably just enough to cover if they don't take their foot off the gas.

Belmont's transition to the Missouri Valley Conference has been relatively smooth. Casey Alexander's squad is 8-6 and playing the up-tempo style that's become synonymous with Bruins basketball. They shoot a lot of threes (28.4 per game), and when they're hitting, they can outscore anybody in the conference.

Bradley is scuffling at 6-8, but Carver Arena remains one of the tougher places to play in the Missouri Valley. The Braves have solid size inside and will try to slow this game down to their preferred pace. Their defense has been respectable (allowing 71.2 points per game), which could create problems for Belmont's rhythm-dependent offense.

The 3.5-point spread is tight, reflecting the challenges of road games in this conference. Belmont is the better team on paper, but Bradley's physicality and home court could keep this close. Expect a competitive, back-and-forth affair that goes down to the final minutes. Slight lean to Belmont to win outright, but this feels like a game that stays within a possession either way.

Northern Kentucky has established itself as one of the better programs in the Horizon League, and this year is no exception. At 9-5, the Norse are right where they expect to be heading into conference play. Their defense has been stingy all season, and they have the veteran leadership to handle road environments without flinching.

IU Indianapolis (formerly IUPUI) is still finding its footing in the early stages of its transition. At 4-10, the Jaguars are learning hard lessons about Division I basketball, and their roster simply doesn't have the depth to compete with established programs. They're averaging just 64.8 points per game and struggling to find consistent scoring options.

The 13.5-point spread is steep, but Northern Kentucky should control this from the jump. The Norse's defensive pressure will cause turnovers, and their half-court execution is miles ahead of IUPU's developing system. This feels like a comfortable 20+ point victory for NKU if they don't sleepwalk through a New Year's Day matinee.