NFL December 21, 2025

Buffalo rolls into Cleveland riding high after clinching their fifth consecutive AFC East title. Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level all season, and the Bills' offense is clicking on all cylinders. This is a team with Super Bowl aspirations, and they're not taking any weeks off heading into January.

Cleveland is playing out the string at 3-11, but don't expect them to roll over. The Browns' defense can still make life difficult, and they've played better at home than on the road. Still, the talent gap here is massive. Allen should have his way with this secondary, and the Bills' defense has been stingy lately.

Betting Analysis

The 10.5-point spread is hefty, but Buffalo has been covering big numbers. The Bills are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games, and Cleveland's offense simply can't score enough to keep this competitive. I lean Buffalo to cover, but the under might be the safer play if you think the Browns can slow the pace.

Jim Harbaugh has completely transformed the Chargers in year one. Los Angeles is playing disciplined, physical football that travels well on the road. Justin Herbert finally has a system that maximizes his elite arm talent, and the defense has become one of the league's stingiest units. This team is built for January football.

Dallas has been a massive disappointment this season. The offensive line has regressed, Dak Prescott has dealt with injuries, and the defense that was supposed to be elite has been merely average. Jerry Jones is facing hard questions about this franchise, and the boo-birds will be out at AT&T Stadium if this game gets ugly early.

Betting Analysis

The Chargers are road favorites for good reason. LA's defense should feast on Dallas's struggling offensive line, and Herbert has been lights out in recent weeks. The Cowboys have covered just twice in their last eight home games. I like the Chargers to win and cover here.

What has happened to the Chiefs? The back-to-back Super Bowl champions from 2023-24 are sitting at 6-8, and their dynasty appears to be crumbling after losing in the AFC Championship to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. Patrick Mahomes has dealt with injuries, the offensive line has been a mess, and the supporting cast has underperformed. Kansas City desperately needs wins to salvage this season.

Tennessee is equally desperate but for different reasons - they're playing for pride and draft positioning. The Titans have been competitive at home despite their record, and Nissan Stadium can get loud when the crowd is engaged. Will Levis has shown flashes, and the young defense has some playmakers.

Betting Analysis

This line feels like a trap. Kansas City is only 2.5-point favorites against a 3-11 team? The market is telling you something about the Chiefs' current state. I actually like Tennessee to keep this close, and the under looks appealing with two struggling offenses. Take the points.

Joe Burrow is back to playing elite football, and when he's on, the Bengals can beat anyone. Ja'Marr Chase remains one of the most explosive receivers in the NFL, and Cincinnati's passing attack is still among the league's best. The problem has been health and consistency, but when this offense clicks, it's special.

Miami's season has been a rollercoaster. Tua Tagovailoa has been inconsistent, the running game hasn't been the same, and the defense has given up too many big plays. The Dolphins still have speed and playmakers, but they haven't put together consistent performances. Hard Rock Stadium in December usually favors the home team.

Betting Analysis

This should be a shootout. Both teams can score, and neither defense has been reliable. The total of 48.5 might even be low for these two offenses. I lean Cincinnati as a slight underdog - Burrow in a must-win situation is dangerous. Take the Bengals and the over.

The Justin Fields experiment in New York has been a disaster. The Jets are 3-11, the offense is lifeless, and the franchise is in shambles. Fields hasn't been the savior they hoped for after coming over from Chicago, and there's zero chemistry on this unit. This is a team playing out the string with major questions about the future.

New Orleans has won two straight and is playing better football lately. Derek Carr has been solid when healthy, and the Superdome provides a significant home advantage. The Saints aren't a playoff team, but they're showing fight and competing hard down the stretch.

Betting Analysis

Two struggling teams, but New Orleans is trending up while New York is spiraling down. The Superdome crowd will be into it, and the Saints' defense should be able to contain the Jets' anemic offense. Take New Orleans to cover and the under - neither team can move the ball consistently.

Minnesota has been one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this season. Sam Darnold is playing at a Pro Bowl level under Kevin O'Connell, and the Vikings are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Justin Jefferson is one of the best receivers in football, and this offense can score on anyone. They've won 12 of 14 and show no signs of slowing down.

The Giants are a mess at 2-12. The quarterback situation is unsettled, the offense is anemic, and there's little reason for optimism. New York is playing for draft positioning and trying to evaluate young players. MetLife Stadium will be half-empty with Vikings fans making the trip.

Betting Analysis

Minnesota should handle this easily. The Vikings have been covering big numbers all season, and the Giants can't score enough to stay within a touchdown. Jefferson should feast against New York's secondary. Take Minnesota to cover and consider the over if the Vikings' offense gets rolling early.

Tampa Bay controls its own destiny in the NFC South. Baker Mayfield has had a strong season, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are still dangerous, and the Buccaneers' offense can put up points. They need wins down the stretch to secure the division, and they can't afford to slip up against Carolina.

The Panthers have shown improvement under Dave Canales. Bryce Young looks more comfortable, the running game has been effective, and the defense has competed hard. Carolina isn't the pushover everyone expected, and division games in December are always tricky. Bank of America Stadium will be engaged.

Betting Analysis

This is a classic trap game for Tampa Bay. The Panthers have been competitive at home, and Bryce Young is gaining confidence. The 3-point spread is tight for a reason - the market respects Carolina's improvement. I lean Panthers to cover, maybe even pull the outright upset. NFC South games are unpredictable.