NFL December 21, 2025

This is a MUST WIN for Tampa Bay. A loss combined with a Carolina home win over Seattle ELIMINATES the Bucs from playoff contention entirely. That's the kind of desperation you can't fake.

Baker Mayfield's been struggling badly - 7 TDs and 6 INTs over his last 6 games with a pathetic 72.6 passer rating. He went from MVP-level play early in the season to 36th of 37 QBs in EPA/CPOE. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan are all dealing with injury complications. This isn't the offense that was lighting up scoreboards in September.

Miami's rolling with rookie Quinn Ewers after Tua's latest concussion issues. Ewers threw 2 INTs in his starting debut, but De'Von Achane is COOKING - 1,267 rushing yards at 5.8 YPC with 12 total TDs. He leads the league in yards per carry and gives Miami an explosive element.

Tampa's defense ranks 7th against the run at 101.3 YPG, which creates a direct matchup problem for Achane. Turnover differential also favors the Bucs (+8 vs Miami's -5). Desperation wins games in December.

Tampa Bay -2.5 - backs against the wall, and the Bucs have too much to lose.

Joe Burrow is on FIRE right now. He just demolished Miami 45-21 with 4 TDs and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Over his last 3 games: 818 yards, 8 TDs, 4 INTs. That's elite quarterback play from a guy who refuses to let his season die quietly.

Arizona's on a brutal 7-game losing streak. Jacoby Brissett set an NFL record with 47 completions against the 49ers, but TE Trey McBride (937 receiving yards) can only do so much. Budda Baker's out with a concussion, Paris Johnson Jr. has a knee issue, and Marvin Harrison Jr. is dealing with a heel injury that's kept him limited.

This total is the HIGHEST on the Week 17 slate at 53.5. Both defenses are disasters - the Bengals rank 32nd in points allowed, Arizona can't stop anyone either. Burrow's going to cook, Brissett's going to rack up garbage time yards, and this thing is going OVER.

The 7-point spread feels right. Cincinnati's the better team with the better QB, and Arizona's completely mailing it in. Burrow's playing for pride and fantasy stats.

Over 53.5 - both defenses are cooked and Burrow's unstoppable right now.

Seattle's running the table. 12-3 start is their best since the 2013 Super Bowl season. Sam Darnold's taken over since the Geno Smith trade and has been EXCELLENT. They're on a 5-game winning streak and can clinch the #1 NFC seed with a win plus some help.

But Carolina can clinch the NFC South with a win plus a Buccaneers loss. That's motivation you can't manufacture. The Panthers just beat Tampa 23-20 and are playing meaningful December football for the first time in years.

Carolina's defense has been sneaky good - CB Mike Jackson leads the ENTIRE LEAGUE with 17 pass breakups. CB Jaycee Horn has 5 INTs. Tetairoa McMillan's got 924 receiving yards, almost 600 more than anyone else on the roster. This isn't the pushover everyone remembers from October.

Seattle's 3-1 in the last 4 meetings and 5-11 all-time against Carolina, but 7.5 points feels like too many for a game with this much on the line. The Panthers can't afford to lose, and that desperation creates close games.

Carolina +7.5 - division title on the line, and Seattle might be looking ahead.

New Orleans is HOT right now. First three-game winning streak since 2022, including beating both Bucs and Panthers plus a 29-6 demolition of the Jets. Tyler Shough's been solid with 1,792 yards, 7 TDs, and 5 INTs at a 66.4% completion rate. Chris Olave's putting up numbers (92 catches, 1,044 yards, 8 TDs).

Tennessee shocked everyone by beating Kansas City 26-9 last week, but that feels like a one-week aberration for a 3-12 team. Tony Pollard's been grinding (102 yards on 21 carries last game at 4.9 YPC), but the offense has no identity and Will Levis has been inconsistent all season.

The 39.5 total is telling you both teams struggle offensively. New Orleans has the momentum and the slightly better roster. The Saints are 7-9-1 all-time against Tennessee with 2 wins in the last 3 meetings.

Tennessee's getting 2.5 at home purely because of the venue. That feels like an overreaction to home field advantage for a 3-12 team. New Orleans is playing for pride and momentum heading into next year.

Saints -2.5 - hot team with momentum against a lost Titans squad.

Pittsburgh can clinch the AFC North if the Ravens lose to the Packers on Saturday night. If that happens, Aaron Rodgers (yes, 42 years old) might get rested, and the Steelers would be in cruise control. But if the division's still up for grabs, this becomes a must-win.

Here's the problem: Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 in Cleveland since 2018. THREE consecutive losses at this building. Mike Tomlin's career excellence against Cleveland (28-8-1) means nothing when you look at recent road trips. DK Metcalf's SUSPENDED for 2 games after that altercation with a Lions fan - huge loss.

Myles Garrett is ONE SACK away from the NFL single-season record. He's had 5 sacks in his last two home games against Pittsburgh. Even on a 3-12 team, that's a generational talent who SHOWS UP for rivalry games.

The 34.5 total is basement-level and reflects how ugly this rivalry gets in December. Both teams want to run the ball and grind. Cleveland's season is over, but Garrett wants that record.

Browns +4.5 - Pittsburgh's Cleveland curse is real, and Garrett wants history.

Drake Maye is having a HISTORIC rookie season. First 300-yard game last week against the Ravens, first 4th-quarter comeback, and he's 12-3 as a starter. The Patriots are 8-0 on the road - the ONLY team undefeated away from home. A win clinches the AFC East and completes a perfect road season.

The Jets are in complete freefall. Three straight blowout losses, Brady Cook struggling at backup QB, and the organization is already in rebuild mode mentally. This is a franchise that's given up on 2025.

New England leads the all-time series 76-56-1 and is 11-4 at MetLife Stadium. They can sweep the division for the first time since 2022. Maye's playing with confidence, the defense is clicking, and there's no reason to expect the Jets to show up.

Seven points might seem like a lot, but the Patriots are covering spreads on the road consistently. Maye's got that "it" factor, and the Jets have nothing to play for.

Patriots -7 - Maye's magic continues against a Jets team that's quit.

Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South with a win plus a Houston loss or tie. They already clinched a playoff berth in Week 16 and are riding a 6-game winning streak - the second-longest in franchise history. This is a DOMINANT team right now.

Trevor Lawrence has been solid (3,489 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs), but the Jaguars' identity is takeaways. They're +12 in turnover differential (3rd best in NFL), forced 28 turnovers (2nd in NFL), and only committed 16 (10th). That's the recipe for playoff success.

Indianapolis has lost 6 of their last 7 games. They're nearly eliminated and would be OUT with a loss or Houston win. Jonathan Taylor's been grinding, but this offense has completely stalled. The Colts have been outscored by 44 points against Jacksonville in their last 5 meetings.

The Jaguars are having their best season since 2007, and they smell blood. Indy's already cooked.

Jaguars -6.5 - division clinching spot against a broken Colts team.

This is the LOTTERY BOWL. Both teams are 2-13 and fighting for the #1 overall pick. The loser gains draft position, the winner... gets slightly worse draft position? Nobody wants to win this game.

New York's lost 9 straight and is 0-8 on the road. Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito have been taking turns disappointing. Andrew Thomas is RULED OUT with a hamstring injury. But they're somehow covering road games (4-of-8 ATS despite 0-8 straight up).

Vegas just lost Brock Bowers to IR - one of the few bright spots on this roster. They've also lost 9 straight. The Raiders are 2-1 in the last 3 against the Giants, with New York's last win coming in 2023 (23-16).

The 1.5-point spread tells you Vegas has no idea who's actually trying to win. Both offenses are putrid. This total should be lower, but 41.5 feels about right for two teams that can't score.

Under 41.5 - two awful offenses stumbling through a game neither wants to win.

This is the GAME OF THE WEEK. Two Super Bowl contenders fighting for playoff seeding in a potential February preview. Both teams are already locked into the playoffs - this is about positioning.

Josh Allen hurt his foot in Week 16 and got X-rayed but played all snaps and practiced fully Friday. He's expected to play. Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox are both questionable with knee issues, which could limit Buffalo's receiving options.

Philadelphia's getting Jalen Carter back from a 3-game absence with shoulder injuries - he was a full participant Friday. But Lane Johnson's OUT with a foot injury after missing 5 games. Saquon Barkley's been reestablished as elite with 4.9 YPC over the last 3 weeks.

Here's the kicker: Buffalo's run defense is ATROCIOUS. 144.3 YPG allowed at 5.4 YPC - second worst in the NFL. That plays directly into Philly's identity. Barkley could feast.

These teams have only met once in 2023 (Eagles won 37-34 OT). This is a coin flip at a neutral site - Buffalo getting 1.5 at home feels about right.

Eagles +1.5 - Buffalo's run defense is exploitable and Barkley's running hot.

Both teams are 11-4 and chasing the #1 NFC seed. If San Francisco beats both Chicago and Seattle, they clinch it. Chicago needs to win out AND have Seattle lose at least once. This is MASSIVE for playoff positioning.

Caleb Williams has been INCREDIBLE lately - 480 yards over his last 2 games, 4 TDs, 0 INTs. He leads the NFL with 6 fourth-quarter comebacks. The rookie is a GAMER who shows up when it matters most. Chicago's won 7 of their last 8 including a 22-16 OT thriller over the Packers in Week 16.

Brock Purdy's on fire too - 8 TDs in his last 2 games. Christian McCaffrey leads all RBs in receptions and is 2nd in scrimmage yards. The 49ers just dropped 48 points on Monday Night Football and are riding a 5-game winning streak.

The 52.5 total is the second-highest on the slate behind Bengals-Cardinals. Both offenses are elite and both teams are desperate. This is going to be a shootout.

Over 52.5 - two top-10 offenses in a playoff-atmosphere shootout.

The Rams just lost to Seattle on Thursday in an OT heartbreaker, ending their momentum. Now they're fighting for playoff positioning on short rest with a cross-country trip to Atlanta. That's a brutal spot.

But Matthew Stafford's been MVP-level. Falcons coach Raheem Morris called him "Weapon X" - and for good reason. Puka Nacua needs just 2 catches to reach 300 career receptions in 43 games, which would be the FASTEST ever. He's had 573 yards in his last 3 games alone.

Atlanta's eliminated but has Bijan Robinson - who leads the ENTIRE NFL with 2,026 scrimmage yards. That's a generational talent playing out the string. The Falcons also have the 2nd-highest sack total in the league (50), but Stafford's only been sacked 19 times (9th-fewest among qualified QBs).

Eight points feels like a lot for a road favorite on short rest. The Rams are clearly better, but Atlanta's pass rush could cause problems and Robinson's going to get his touches. This line is inflated.

Falcons +8 - short rest for LA and Atlanta's got playmakers to keep it close.