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2026 Rose Bowl - CFP Quarterfinal

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Indiana #1 Indiana Hoosiers vs Alabama #5 Alabama Crimson Tide
Wednesday, January 1, 2026 | 4:00 PM ET | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA | ABC
Spread
IND -3.5
Total
O/U 54.5
Moneyline
IND -165 / BAMA +140
Records
IND 13-0 | BAMA 10-2

History in the Making

This is the game everyone's been waiting for. The undefeated #1 Indiana Hoosiers make their Rose Bowl debut in the most improbable Cinderella story in college football history. A program that hadn't won more than six games in a season since 2007 is now 13-0 and playing for a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals. Against them stands Alabama, the sport's gold standard, looking to prove that the Tide aren't done competing for championships under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer.

Indiana's transformation under Curt Cignetti has been nothing short of miraculous. The former James Madison coach took over a program that was 3-9 in 2023 and turned them into Big Ten champions. The Hoosiers knocked off Ohio State in the conference championship game, a sentence that seemed impossible just twelve months ago. This team plays with a chip on their shoulder, and they've backed up the talk with dominant performances week after week.

Alabama enters the Rose Bowl with two losses but as dangerous as ever. The Crimson Tide lost early to Tennessee and stumbled against LSU, but they've won five straight including a convincing victory in the SEC Championship Game. DeBoer has this offense humming, and the defense has tightened up as the season progressed. Make no mistake: this is still Alabama, and they're still capable of beating anyone in the country.


The Quarterback Matchup

#1 Indiana Hoosiers (13-0)
Kurtis Rourke - QB
Ohio transfer, Big Ten leader
68.2% completion, 29 TD, 5 INT
Excellent pocket passer
Clutch in biggest moments
Justice Ellison - RB
Physical downhill runner
8 rushing TDs
Excellent in short yardage
Elijah Sarratt - WR
JMU transfer, deep threat
Rourke's favorite target
11 touchdowns
#5 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-2)
Jalen Milroe - QB
Dual-threat nightmare
25 passing TD, 11 rushing TD
Creates with his legs
Can take over games
Jam Miller - RB
Explosive playmaker
12 touchdowns total
Complements Milroe perfectly
Ryan Williams - WR
True freshman sensation
Breakout star receiver
Game-changing speed

The quarterback battle is fascinating. Kurtis Rourke has been the most efficient passer in the Big Ten, managing games brilliantly while making the throws he needs to make. He's not flashy, but he's incredibly effective. Jalen Milroe is the opposite - electric, unpredictable, and capable of explosive plays that change games. Milroe's 36 total touchdowns make him a nightmare to defend, but his decision-making can be erratic at times.

Indiana's offensive line has been exceptional all season, giving Rourke time to work through his progressions. Alabama's pass rush is formidable, but the Hoosiers have proven they can handle elite front sevens. The question is whether Alabama's secondary can handle Elijah Sarratt, who's been torching Big Ten corners all season.


Defensive Matchup

Indiana's defense has been quietly dominant all season. The Hoosiers rank in the top 20 nationally in both scoring defense and total defense, and they've shown the ability to shut down high-powered offenses. Coordinator Bryant Haines has built a unit that's sound fundamentally and plays with tremendous effort. They'll need every bit of that against Alabama's explosive attack.

Alabama's defense has improved dramatically since the early-season struggles. The Crimson Tide are flying around the ball better, and the pass rush has been dominant down the stretch. If Alabama can get pressure on Rourke without blitzing, they can create havoc in Indiana's passing game. The key will be containing Justice Ellison and forcing Indiana into obvious passing situations.

KEY TRENDS

Indiana: 10-3 ATS this season. Covered in 8 of their last 9 games. Playing with house money as massive underdogs in every major matchup this year.

Alabama: 7-5 ATS this season. 3-2 ATS in their last 5. Nick Saban's departure created uncertainty, but DeBoer has steadied the ship.


Betting Analysis

Indiana opened as a 3.5-point favorite, and the line has held steady. This is remarkable for a program that was a 30-point underdog in some Big Ten games just two years ago. The market respects what Cignetti has built, and the Hoosiers have earned every bit of that respect with their dominant performances.

The total of 54.5 suggests oddsmakers expect points, which makes sense given both offenses' capabilities. Alabama has the more explosive offense on paper, but Indiana has been incredibly efficient at sustaining drives and controlling the clock. The Hoosiers don't beat themselves, turning the ball over just five times all season.

This feels like a classic "can they hang with a blue blood?" game for Indiana. The Hoosiers have answered that question emphatically against Ohio State and other Big Ten powers, but Alabama is a different beast. The Crimson Tide have the experience, the talent, and the championship pedigree that Indiana is trying to establish.


Keys To Victory

For Indiana to win: Protect Rourke and establish the running game. The Hoosiers need to control the tempo and keep Milroe on the sideline. If Indiana can sustain long drives and force Alabama into passing situations, they can neutralize the Tide's explosive playmakers. Winning the turnover battle is critical - Indiana can't afford to give Alabama short fields.

For Alabama to win: Get Jalen Milroe in space and let him create. Alabama's best offense is Milroe making plays with his legs and buying time to find receivers downfield. The Tide need to attack Indiana's secondary with Ryan Williams' speed and make the Hoosiers prove they can cover elite athletes. Early pressure on Rourke could rattle the Indiana offense.


Final Thoughts

This is the Rose Bowl everyone wanted. The Cinderella story against the dynasty. The first-year coach trying to build something against the first-year coach trying to maintain a legacy. Indiana represents everything that's beautiful about college football - the idea that any program can rise to greatness with the right coach and the right culture.

Alabama represents the standard. Even in a season with two losses, the Crimson Tide are still dangerous, still talented, and still capable of dominating any opponent. Kalen DeBoer inherited a monster, and he's proven he can coach at this level. The question is whether his team can match Indiana's intensity in the biggest game of the season.

The Rose Bowl is the perfect setting for this showdown. Pasadena, the mountains, the tradition - it's everything college football should be. Indiana has earned the right to be here, and they've earned the right to be favored. Whether they can finish the job against Alabama will determine if this Cinderella story has a championship ending.

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