Expert Analysis & Predictions
The USC Trojans travel to Autzen Stadium in Eugene for one of college football's most storied West Coast rivalries in a game that carries massive College Football Playoff implications. The undefeated Oregon Ducks, ranked #1 in the nation at 11-0, host a USC team sitting at 6-5 and desperately fighting for bowl eligibility in what has been a disappointing season in Lincoln Riley's third year.
This matchup features a fascinating collision of styles and circumstances. Oregon, led by first-year head coach Dan Lanning's elite defensive scheme and quarterback Dillon Gabriel's Heisman-caliber season, has dominated every opponent and sits as the only undefeated team in the Big Ten. USC, once a preseason top-10 team with College Football Playoff aspirations of their own, has stumbled through injuries, defensive breakdowns, and inconsistent quarterback play to find themselves in a must-win situation just to reach six wins.
The spread of Oregon -13.5 reflects the massive talent and momentum gap between these programs right now. The Ducks are playing championship-level football while the Trojans are fighting for survival. Yet this rivalry has produced fireworks throughout history, and Autzen Stadium under the lights on a Saturday night in November creates one of the most hostile environments in college football.
The Oregon Ducks have been nothing short of spectacular in 2025, combining explosive offense with suffocating defense to dominate the Big Ten in their first season in the conference. At 11-0 overall and 8-0 in Big Ten play, Oregon has already clinched the Big Ten championship game berth and sits firmly in the College Football Playoff conversation as a likely #1 seed.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel, the Oklahoma transfer and former UCF star, has orchestrated this offense to perfection. Gabriel is completing 73.4% of his passes for 3,558 yards, 28 touchdowns, and just 6 interceptions on the season. His efficiency rating of 181.7 leads the nation, and his ability to make every throw in Dan Lanning's system has made Oregon virtually unstoppable through the air.
Gabriel's Heisman Trophy campaign has been bolstered by consecutive dominant performances. Against Maryland two weeks ago, he threw for 373 yards and 4 touchdowns in a 39-18 blowout. Last week against Wisconsin in a hostile Camp Randall environment, Gabriel dissected the Badgers' defense for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns in a 42-10 rout. He's shown the poise, accuracy, and decision-making of a veteran quarterback playing with supreme confidence.
The Ducks' receiving corps features one of the nation's most dangerous weapons in Evan Stewart, who has 67 receptions for 1,142 yards and 11 touchdowns. The Texas A&M transfer has been Gabriel's go-to target on deep shots and crucial third downs. Tight end Terrance Ferguson adds another dimension with 48 catches for 689 yards and 7 scores, giving Oregon a matchup nightmare over the middle of the field.
Oregon's ground game, while not their primary identity, remains efficient and dangerous. Running back Jordan James has rushed for 1,023 yards and 14 touchdowns this season, providing the balance that keeps defenses from sitting in coverage. When Oregon establishes the run early, it opens up Gabriel's play-action attack and creates explosive plays downfield.
Defensively, the Ducks have been equally impressive. Coordinator Tosh Lupoi's scheme has Oregon ranked 7th nationally in total defense (298.6 yards per game) and 12th in scoring defense (17.8 points per game). They've held seven of their eleven opponents to 20 points or fewer, showcasing their ability to execute in critical moments.
The defensive front, led by edge rusher Jordan Burch and defensive tackle Derrick Harmon, has generated consistent pressure all season. Burch has 9.5 sacks and 14.5 tackles for loss, constantly disrupting opposing quarterbacks. The secondary, featuring NFL prospect cornerback Jabbar Muhammad, has been lockdown in coverage, allowing Oregon to bring extra pressure without fear of getting beaten deep.
The USC Trojans' 2025 season has been a stark reminder of how quickly expectations can crumble in college football. Picked by many to compete for the Big Ten title in their second season in the conference, USC instead finds themselves at 6-5, having lost four of their last six games and desperately needing a win against Oregon or UCLA next week to become bowl eligible.
The quarterback situation has been tumultuous all season. Starter Miller Moss, who showed promise in limited action last year, has struggled with consistency and decision-making. Moss has thrown 17 interceptions against just 18 touchdowns this season, with his turnover issues becoming a defining narrative. Head coach Lincoln Riley benched Moss in last week's loss to Nebraska, turning to redshirt freshman Jayden Maiava in the second half.
Maiava, the UNLV transfer who arrived with considerable hype, showed flashes of the talent that made him a highly sought-after recruit. He completed 16 of 26 passes for 259 yards and 3 touchdowns against Nebraska, injecting life into an offense that had been stagnant under Moss. However, he also threw a costly interception in the fourth quarter that sealed USC's fate. Riley has not yet announced who will start against Oregon, creating uncertainty at the most critical position.
Despite the quarterback struggles, USC's offense has weapons. Wide receiver Zachariah Branch has 52 receptions for 847 yards and 6 touchdowns, showcasing game-breaking speed on the perimeter. Duce Robinson, the two-sport star who also plays professional baseball, has emerged as a red zone threat with 41 catches for 612 yards and 8 scores. Running back Woody Marks provides a physical presence in the backfield with 789 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground.
The Trojans' defense, however, has been the Achilles heel all season. USC ranks 87th nationally in total defense (388.4 yards per game) and 76th in scoring defense (27.1 points per game). They've been gashed on the ground repeatedly, allowing over 150 rushing yards in eight of their eleven games. Against high-powered offenses like Washington (52 points allowed), Minnesota (24 points allowed), and Penn State (33 points allowed), USC's defense has been unable to get stops when needed most.
The defensive line lacks the elite edge rushers needed to consistently pressure quarterbacks. Linebackers have struggled in coverage against athletic tight ends and slot receivers. The secondary, while featuring talented players like cornerback Jaylin Smith, has been vulnerable to explosive plays and has given up too many chunk gains through the air.
Special teams have also been inconsistent. Kicker Michael Lantz has connected on just 14 of 19 field goal attempts (73.7%), missing critical kicks in close games. The punt coverage unit has allowed two returns for touchdowns this season, adding to the mounting frustrations.
This game presents a series of mismatches that heavily favor Oregon. When you have the nation's #1 team with an elite quarterback facing a struggling defense that ranks outside the top 80 nationally, the math becomes simple. Dillon Gabriel should have time to operate, weapons to target, and opportunities to exploit USC's defensive vulnerabilities.
Oregon's defensive front against USC's offensive line is another advantage for the Ducks. Jordan Burch and the Oregon pass rush will be licking their chops at the chance to pressure whichever USC quarterback takes the field. Whether it's Miller Moss, who has been sacked 23 times this season and tends to make poor decisions under duress, or Jayden Maiava, an inexperienced redshirt freshman making just his second career start, Oregon's ability to generate pressure will likely dictate this game's flow.
The Autzen Stadium environment cannot be overstated. Oregon's home field advantage is among the most intimidating in college football, with noise levels that regularly exceed 120 decibels. USC's offense, already struggling with protection and communication, will face additional challenges with pre-snap adjustments and audibles. False starts and procedural penalties have plagued the Trojans all season, and that problem will only intensify in this environment.
USC's path to competitiveness requires a near-perfect game plan and execution. They must establish the run early with Woody Marks to control clock and keep Oregon's offense on the sideline. They need their quarterback, whoever starts, to avoid turnovers and hit explosive plays when Oregon loads the box. Defensively, they must somehow generate pressure on Gabriel without blitzing excessively and leaving their vulnerable secondary exposed in one-on-one situations.
The problem is that USC hasn't shown the ability to execute any of those requirements consistently this season. Their offensive line has struggled to create running lanes against quality fronts. Their quarterbacks have thrown picks at critical moments. Their defense hasn't stopped anyone who can score. Against the nation's best team, in their building, with playoff positioning on the line, expecting USC to suddenly play their best game of the season feels unrealistic.
The numbers tell a story of two programs heading in opposite directions. Oregon is 11-0 ATS this season, covering the spread in every single game. They've won by an average margin of 24.3 points per game, with their closest victory coming by 14 points. They don't just beat teams—they dominate them from start to finish.
USC, meanwhile, is 4-7 ATS on the season and just 1-4 ATS as an underdog. They've failed to cover in five of their last six games, consistently underperforming expectations even when the lines account for their struggles. As a double-digit underdog specifically, USC is 0-2 ATS this year, losing to Penn State by 20 (covered by 1) and to Washington by 26 (failed to cover by 6).
The total of 56.5 reflects Oregon's offensive firepower and USC's defensive deficiencies. Oregon has scored 30+ points in ten of their eleven games this season, with their "low" output being 28 points against Wisconsin in a comfortable win. They've surpassed 40 points six times. Against defenses ranked outside the top 50, they've averaged 44.2 points per game.
USC's defense has allowed 30+ points five times this season, including 52 to Washington, 33 to Penn State, and 28 to both Minnesota and Nebraska. When facing offenses ranked in the top 30 nationally, USC has allowed an average of 36.8 points per game. Oregon's offense, ranked #3 nationally in scoring at 38.7 points per game, falls squarely into that elite category.
Historically, this rivalry has produced high-scoring affairs when both teams have capable offenses. However, USC's current offensive limitations—quarterback uncertainty, inconsistent line play, and an inability to sustain drives—suggest they may struggle to reach 20 points against Oregon's disciplined defense.
The weather forecast for Eugene shows clear skies with temperatures in the low 40s and minimal wind. Conditions should be ideal for passing, which favors Oregon's aerial attack and provides no mitigating factors for USC's defensive struggles.
Oregon -13.5 is a significant number, but it's justified given the talent gap and situational dynamics. The Ducks are 11-0 ATS for a reason—they don't take their foot off the gas, they have elite coaching, and they're playing for playoff seeding. Every impressive win, every dominant performance, strengthens their case for a #1 seed. There's no incentive to coast or show mercy, especially against a rival.
USC, meanwhile, has nothing to play for in this game from a competitive standpoint. They're not making the playoff. They're not winning the Big Ten. They're not even guaranteed a bowl game yet. While pride and rivalry history might provide some motivation, the talent deficit is simply too large. When a team with quarterback questions, defensive issues, and no margin for error faces the nation's #1 team on the road in a hostile environment, double-digit losses are not just possible—they're probable.
The biggest risk to an Oregon cover is the potential for Dan Lanning to empty his bench in the fourth quarter, giving backups meaningful reps once the game is decided. However, Oregon's second and third-string players are still highly recruited athletes playing in a well-designed system. Even with reserves, Oregon should maintain a significant advantage.
The total of 56.5 presents interesting angles. Oregon should have little trouble reaching their season average of 38.7 points per game against this USC defense. That would require USC to score just 18 points for the over to hit. Can the Trojans put up 18-20 points against Oregon's defense? It's possible if they hit some explosive plays or capitalize on short fields from turnovers.
However, the game script likely features Oregon building a significant lead early, forcing USC to abandon their run game and pass into Oregon's strength. Predictable passing situations against Oregon's pass rush and coverage spells disaster for whichever Trojans quarterback is under center. This could turn into a 45-10 or 42-14 type game that stays comfortably under the total.
The moneyline of Oregon -600 implies an 85.7% win probability for the Ducks. That feels accurate, if not slightly conservative. Barring a catastrophic injury to Dillon Gabriel or a series of fluky turnovers that create short fields for USC, Oregon should control this game from the opening kickoff to the final whistle.
This matchup represents a stark contrast in trajectories. Oregon enters as the nation's top team with everything to play for—playoff seeding, Heisman positioning for Gabriel, and a chance to make a statement against a rival. USC, meanwhile, is playing out the string of a disappointing season, hoping to salvage bowl eligibility while dealing with quarterback uncertainty and defensive struggles. Autzen Stadium under the lights on a Saturday night in November, with College Football Playoff implications on the line, creates one of the most intimidating environments in college football.
The Buffalo Bills travel to NRG Stadium in Houston for a pivotal Thursday Night Football matchup that features two teams heading in opposite directions. Buffalo, sitting at 7-3 and firmly in playoff position in the competitive AFC East, faces a Houston Texans squad at 5-5 that finds itself battling to stay relevant in the AFC South race.
This game presents a fascinating dynamic. On one side, you have the reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen leading an explosive Bills offense. On the other, you have the league's top ranked defense trying to compensate for the absence of their franchise quarterback CJ Stroud, who remains in concussion protocol for the third consecutive week.
Buffalo enters this game as the more complete team, and for good reason. The Bills offense, orchestrated by Josh Allen, set franchise records last season with 509 points scored and 63 touchdowns. They became the first team in NFL history to score 30-plus rushing touchdowns and 30-plus passing touchdowns in the same season. That balanced attack has carried over into 2025, where Allen has already accumulated 2,456 passing yards and 18 touchdowns through 10 games.
Allen's ability to extend plays with his legs while maintaining elite accuracy downfield makes him one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football. His five consecutive seasons with 40-plus total touchdowns speaks to his consistency at the highest level. When defenses focus on stopping the pass, running back James Cook provides a legitimate ground game threat. Cook has become the identity of this offense when he touches the ball early and often, creating play action opportunities and keeping defensive fronts honest.
The Bills receiving corps features an intriguing mix of weapons. Khalil Shakir has emerged as a reliable target, though his status for Thursday is uncertain due to personal reasons. Rookie Keon Coleman brings size and athleticism to the outside. Josh Palmer, signed in the offseason from the Chargers, provides a vertical threat. However, Buffalo will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid and wide receivers Curtis Samuel and Mecole Hardman Jr., all ruled out for this contest.
Even with those absences, the Bills have shown they can score against any defense. Their offensive line has given Allen time to operate, and their ability to convert on third downs keeps drives alive.
Houston's season has been defined by two contrasting narratives. Their defense has been nothing short of spectacular, ranking first in the NFL in points allowed (14.7 per game) and total yards allowed (258.1 per game). Their pass defense sits atop the league rankings, making them a nightmare matchup for opposing quarterbacks.
Edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has been disruptive all season, though he's dealing with an injury and was limited in practice. When healthy, he's a force that opposing offensive lines must account for on every snap. The Texans' ability to pressure quarterbacks while maintaining tight coverage has been their calling card.
However, all that defensive prowess must now carry even more weight with CJ Stroud sidelined. Stroud, the 2023 second overall pick who had an outstanding rookie campaign, suffered a concussion against Denver on a legal shoulder hit while sliding. He remains in the NFL's concussion protocol and is expected to return next week against Indianapolis.
In his place steps Davis Mills, the former third-round pick from Stanford who started before Stroud arrived. Mills has been impressive as a fill in, going 2-0 as the starter in Stroud's absence. He's completed 60 percent of his passes for 726 yards, thrown three touchdowns against just one interception, and even rushed for a game winning touchdown. His 82.2 passer rating isn't spectacular, but it's more than adequate when your defense holds opponents to under 15 points per game.
Mills knows this offense, having run it before Stroud's arrival, and he's shown poise in managing games. The Texans won't ask him to win with his arm. Instead, they'll lean on their elite defense, establish the run, and take what the Bills defense gives them.
Houston will also be without safety Jalen Pitre, another key piece of their secondary who's in concussion protocol. Wide receiver Nico Collins was limited in practice but is expected to play, giving Mills his top target.
This game presents a classic strength versus strength scenario. Buffalo's explosive offense meets Houston's lockdown defense. Something has to give.
The Bills rank among the league's top offenses in scoring, while the Texans allow the fewest points. Buffalo thrives on big plays and chunk yardage, while Houston excels at limiting explosive gains and forcing teams to drive the length of the field with patience and precision.
Josh Allen against a top ranked defense without some of his weapons creates intrigue. Can the Texans generate enough pressure to make Allen uncomfortable? Can their secondary hold up against Buffalo's speed on the perimeter? Will the absence of Dalton Kincaid affect Allen's security blanket over the middle?
On the flip side, can Davis Mills do enough to keep Houston's offense on schedule? Buffalo's defense, while not elite, is competent enough to force a backup quarterback into mistakes. If the Bills can create negative plays and put Houston in obvious passing situations, that tilts the field significantly in their favor.
The total for this game sits at 43.5 to 44.0 points, with good reason. Houston's games have averaged just 38.3 combined points this season, a testament to their defensive dominance and offensive limitations, especially with Mills under center. Buffalo is capable of putting up 30 points against anyone, but doing so against the league's top defense, on a short week, on the road, presents challenges.
Buffalo's injury situation at wide receiver and tight end isn't ideal, but they've navigated similar circumstances this season. The absence of Khalil Shakir, if he sits, would be more significant than the others. He's been Allen's most reliable target in critical situations.
Houston's injuries are more impactful. Losing CJ Stroud for a third straight game means their offensive ceiling remains capped. Davis Mills is a capable backup, but he doesn't possess Stroud's arm talent or processing speed. The absence of Jalen Pitre in the secondary creates vulnerability, especially if the Bills attack the middle of the field where Pitre typically operates.
The Bills opened as 6 point favorites, and that number feels appropriate. On a neutral field with both teams healthy, Buffalo would likely be favored by 7 to 8 points. Playing on the road on a short week brings that down slightly, but Houston's quarterback situation keeps it elevated.
Six points in an NFL game is significant. It suggests the oddsmakers believe Buffalo wins comfortably but not by double digits. That makes sense. The Texans' defense will keep this competitive, potentially into the fourth quarter. But can Houston's offense, led by Mills, score enough to stay within a touchdown?
Davis Mills has played well in relief, but he hasn't faced a defense as motivated or as well coached as Buffalo's on a national stage. The Bills know they can tee off on a backup quarterback and force him into tight window throws he'd prefer to avoid.
The total of 43.5 to 44.0 might be the more intriguing bet. Houston's defensive excellence suggests they'll hold Buffalo to somewhere in the low to mid 20s if they execute their game plan. That would require Houston to score 17 to 20 points to push this over. Can Davis Mills and a Texans offense that has struggled for consistency this season put up that many against a Buffalo defense that will load the box and dare them to throw?
Houston's offensive limitations, combined with their defensive strength, suggest a lower scoring affair. The Texans' ability to limit explosive plays could keep Buffalo's scoring in check, while their own offensive struggles with Mills under center may lead to a conservative game plan focused on field position and time of possession.
As for the spread, Buffalo minus 6 requires the Bills to win by a touchdown or more. The Bills have the offensive firepower with Josh Allen, but Houston's defense will make Buffalo work for every yard. The short week and road environment add variables that could keep this game closer than the talent gap suggests.
The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Chase Center in San Francisco for a critical Friday night NBA Cup matchup against the Golden State Warriors. Portland arrives at 6-9 overall, riding a four-game losing streak and desperately searching for answers on the defensive end. Golden State sits at 9-8, coming off a disappointing road loss but returning to the friendly confines of Chase Center where they've been perfect at home this season.
This game carries significant NBA Cup group play implications while also featuring a revenge narrative. These teams met just one month ago on October 24th, with Portland stunning Golden State 139-119 at the Moda Center. The Warriors absorbed that embarrassing defeat and have been waiting for their chance to even the score in front of their home crowd. With Steph Curry playing at an elite level and the Warriors undefeated at home, this sets up as a get-right spot for Golden State.
The Golden State Warriors enter this matchup with a perfect 5-0 home record at Chase Center, turning their building into an absolute fortress. While their overall 9-8 record might not jump off the page, their home dominance tells the real story. When playing in San Francisco, the Warriors are a completely different team—aggressive, confident, and overwhelming opponents with their signature ball movement and three-point barrage.
Leading the charge is Stephen Curry, who continues to defy Father Time at age 36. Curry is averaging 27.9 points, 4.1 assists, and 3.6 rebounds on the season while connecting on 38.9 percent of his three-point attempts on a massive 11.5 attempts per game. But it's his recent performances that truly showcase his current level. On November 14th, Curry dropped 49 points against the San Antonio Spurs in an NBA Cup thriller, hitting 9 three-pointers and willing his team to a 109-108 victory. Just two days earlier, he scored 46 points in a 125-120 comeback win, also against the Spurs.
Those back-to-back 40-point games tied Michael Jordan for the most 40+ point performances by a player over 36 years old in the past 30 years. At this stage of his career, Curry continues to find ways to dominate games, and his recent scoring surge suggests he's locked in. Against a Portland defense that ranks near the bottom of the league, Curry could be in line for another scoring explosion in front of his home fans.
The Warriors offense leads the entire NBA in three-point makes at 16.1 per game, a testament to their elite spacing and shot creation. When Curry gets hot, the entire team benefits as defenses scramble to contain him, opening up driving lanes and kick-out opportunities for teammates.
The Portland Trail Blazers enter Chase Center in the midst of a brutal four-game losing streak, having dropped games to opponents they should have competed with more effectively. Sitting at 6-9 overall and 9th in the Western Conference, Portland's season is teetering on the edge of irrelevance before Thanksgiving. Over their last 10 games, the Blazers are just 3-7, and the defensive issues that have plagued them all season show no signs of improvement.
Portland's defense allows 122.5 points per game, ranking near the bottom of the NBA in virtually every defensive category. They struggle to contain penetration, fail to rotate properly on the perimeter, and give up high-percentage looks with alarming regularity. Against a Warriors team that thrives on ball movement and three-point shooting, these defensive deficiencies could be ruthlessly exposed.
Offensively, the Blazers actually possess talent. They score 120.7 points per game, ranking 7th in the league, led by Anfernee Simons and a supporting cast capable of putting up points. However, their offensive firepower often goes to waste when their defense can't get stops. Most concerning has been their recent form—in their last game, they blew a lead and lost 122-121 at home to the Chicago Bulls, a devastating defeat that summed up their season's frustrations.
On October 24th, the Portland Trail Blazers dismantled the Golden State Warriors 139-119 at the Moda Center, handing Golden State one of their most lopsided defeats of the young season. That 20-point margin wasn't even fully indicative of Portland's dominance—the Blazers led by as many as 28 points and cruised through the second half.
The Warriors haven't forgotten. Championship-caliber teams with veteran leadership like Golden State's use losses like that as motivation, especially when they get a rematch at home. Steph Curry and Draymond Green will have this game circled on the calendar. Golden State's perfect home record suggests they're nearly unbeatable at Chase Center. Adding the revenge narrative to an already favorable matchup creates even more confidence in the Warriors' ability to not just win but dominate.
While Portland leads the all-time series 131-119, the Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Since 2004, Golden State has dominated with a 76-29 record against Portland. The October loss appears to be an aberration rather than indicative of the current matchup dynamics between these franchises.
Tonight's matchup at Chase Center represents a significant test for Portland's resilience against a Warriors team that has historically dominated this rivalry in recent years. With both teams possessing offensive firepower but vastly different defensive capabilities, this game promises to be an intriguing study in contrasts.