This is the game that will likely determine the AFC South champion. The Houston Texans travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the Indianapolis Colts in a Week 13 clash that carries enormous divisional implications. The Colts currently sit atop the AFC South at 8-3, while the two-time defending division champion Texans are 6-5 and fighting to stay in the hunt. With six games remaining and these teams meeting again in the regular season finale, Sunday's outcome could swing the entire balance of power in the division.
The storylines in this matchup are incredible. C.J. Stroud is set to return from a three-game absence due to a concussion suffered on a brutal hit in Week 9 against Denver. During his absence, backup Davis Mills led the Texans to three consecutive victories, pushing Houston back over .500 and keeping their playoff hopes alive. Now Stroud returns to face a Colts team that has been utterly dominant at home, going 6-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium this season. The Texans are looking to become the first team to hand Indianapolis a home loss in 2025.
The Colts are experiencing their best start since the 2009 season when they went 10-0 en route to Super Bowl XLIV. Daniel Jones, yes THAT Daniel Jones, has orchestrated a career resurrection in Indianapolis that nobody saw coming. The former Giants quarterback has been among the most efficient passers in the NFL, ranking fourth in passing yards with 2,840 and posting a career-high 71.0% completion rate. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor has reasserted himself as the league's most dominant running back, leading the NFL with 1,197 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns.
Here's the wrinkle that makes this fascinating: despite the Colts' overall dominance this season, they've lost their last three meetings against the Texans. Houston swept the season series in 2024, winning 29-27 in Indianapolis in Week 1 and 23-20 at home in late October. The Texans have owned this head-to-head matchup recently, winning four of the last five meetings. That recent history will be on Indianapolis's mind as they look to avenge those losses and tighten their grip on the division.
The Houston Texans have quietly built one of the most fearsome defenses in the NFL, and it's been their calling card during this three-game winning streak. Under second-year head coach DeMeco Ryans, a former All-Pro linebacker himself, the Texans have become a nightmare for opposing offenses. Houston ranks first in the NFL in total defense, allowing just 264.3 yards per game, and they're second in scoring defense at 16.5 points allowed per game. This is an elite unit that can win games by itself.
The pass rush has been absolutely devastating. Danielle Hunter leads the team with 11.0 sacks on the season, while second-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. has tallied 10.5 sacks of his own. That one-two punch terrorizes opposing quarterbacks, and they showed it in full force against Buffalo on Thursday Night Football when they sacked Josh Allen eight times—tying a franchise record. Anderson is dealing with a chest injury that bears watching, but the expectation is he'll suit up for this critical division game.
The secondary has been equally impressive. Calen Bullock leads the team with 4 interceptions, while Jalen Pitre and Derek Stingley Jr. each have 3 picks. Pitre has been cleared from concussion protocol and will return to his nickel position, giving Houston their full complement of defensive playmakers. The Texans have recorded 19 takeaways on the season, ranking fourth in the NFL. This defense forces mistakes and makes opponents earn every single yard.
The return of C.J. Stroud is the biggest story for Houston's offense. Stroud suffered a severe concussion in Week 9 when Broncos cornerback Kris Abrams-Draine drove him to the turf, causing his head to bounce off the ground. He's been in concussion protocol for three weeks, but cleared on Friday and will return to the starting lineup. Before his injury, Stroud was playing at an elite level, and his ability to push the ball downfield to Nico Collins will open up an offense that's been more conservative with Mills under center.
Nico Collins has emerged as one of the NFL's premier receivers despite dealing with Houston's quarterback carousel. Collins recently torched Jacksonville for 136 yards in Week 10 and had a 12-catch, 151-yard performance in Week 4. With Tank Dell out for the season and Stefon Diggs now in New England, Collins is Stroud's primary target, and they've developed excellent chemistry. Joe Mixon has dealt with foot and ankle issues this season but remains the team's lead back when healthy, providing a physical ground game to complement the passing attack.
Nobody predicted this. When the Indianapolis Colts signed Daniel Jones to a one-year, $14 million deal in March after he was cut by the Giants, most viewed it as a low-risk flyer on a former first-round pick. Instead, Jones has authored the most impressive redemption story in the NFL. He's thrown for 2,840 yards with 17 touchdowns and just 7 interceptions, posting the fourth-highest yardage total in the league. His 71.0% completion rate is a career high and ranks fifth in the NFL.
The turnaround has been stunning to watch. On throws from inside the pocket this season, Jones leads the NFL with an 87.7 QBR. His 2.7 sack percentage is the best in the league—he's been sacked just 6 times all season, fewer than any other quarterback. Part of that is the offensive line, but a huge part is Jones making quicker decisions and getting the ball out faster in Shane Steichen's system. This is a completely different quarterback than the one who was benched and cut in New York.
Jonathan Taylor is making a compelling case for Offensive Player of the Year, if not MVP consideration. The 26-year-old leads the NFL with 1,197 rushing yards and 15 rushing touchdowns, averaging an explosive 5.8 yards per carry. His 244-yard, three-touchdown performance against Atlanta in Berlin was one of the most dominant games by any running back this season. During that game, Taylor broke Hall of Famer Edgerrin James' franchise record for career rushing touchdowns, now standing at 66.
Taylor has had three consecutive three-touchdown games at one point this season, showcasing both his volume and efficiency. The Chiefs limited him to under 60 yards last week, but that was only the second time in 11 games he's been held under 100 yards. When Taylor gets going, he's virtually impossible to stop, and his combination of vision, power, and breakaway speed makes him the most dangerous back in football right now.
Michael Pittman Jr. has been Jones's security blanket, hauling in 59 catches for 607 yards and a career-high 7 touchdowns. Pittman is healthy after playing through a back fracture last season, and he's become a high-volume red zone target. Jones trusts Pittman in contested situations, and that connection has been vital to Indianapolis's offensive success. The Jones-Pittman-Taylor trio has given the Colts a balanced attack that's averaging 31.0 points per game—first in the NFL.
The concern for Indianapolis is Daniel Jones's health. He's playing through a fractured fibula suffered in the Week 12 loss to Kansas City. Coach Shane Steichen confirmed Friday that Jones will play and doesn't carry an injury designation, but the injury is worth monitoring. If the pain worsens or limits his mobility, it could affect Indianapolis's offensive execution against a Houston defense that feasts on any sign of weakness.
The Colts have been absolutely dominant inside Lucas Oil Stadium this season, going 6-0 at home while outscoring opponents by a wide margin. The Week 1 blowout of Miami (33-8), the Week 5 demolition of Las Vegas (40-6), and the Salute to Service victory over Tennessee have all showcased Indianapolis at its best. The climate-controlled environment eliminates weather variables and allows the Colts to execute their game plan without interference.
Indianapolis is 4-1-1 against the spread at home this season, covering at an elite rate in their own building. The crowd support has been phenomenal, and opposing offenses have struggled with the noise and the Colts' precision execution. If Houston wants to win this game, they'll need to do something no team has managed: break through in a venue where Indianapolis has been nearly perfect.
The Texans, however, have recent history on their side at Lucas Oil Stadium. Houston won 29-27 in Indianapolis during Week 1 of last season, then completed the sweep with a home victory later in the year. Those two wins were part of Houston's run to back-to-back AFC South titles. The Colts remember how those games felt, and there's a genuine revenge factor at play. Indianapolis wants to prove that the 2024 sweep was an aberration, not a trend.
Historically, the Colts have dominated this rivalry with a 33-13-1 all-time record against Houston. For the first seven years of the Texans' existence, Indianapolis went 15-1 against them. General Manager Bill Polian specifically built teams designed to handle Houston. But the recent results tell a different story, and the Texans have found a formula for beating Indianapolis. Clark Lea was famously hired by Tennessee specifically to beat Vanderbilt; the Colts might need a similar mindset shift to figure out their divisional rival.
This is the chess match that will determine the game. Houston's pass rush has been lethal, averaging 3.0 sacks per game, but Daniel Jones has been nearly impossible to bring down. Jones's league-leading 2.7 sack percentage reflects his quick processing, accurate reads, and willingness to take what the defense gives him. The Texans will need to generate pressure without blitzing to have any chance of disrupting Indianapolis's timing.
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. will need to win individual battles against the Colts' offensive tackles. If they can collapse the pocket even slightly, Jones's mobility could be compromised by that fractured fibula. Houston's best path to victory involves making Jones uncomfortable, forcing him into mistakes, and taking away the easy completions that have defined his season. The Texans recorded 8 sacks against Josh Allen; they need half that against Jones to tilt the game in their favor.
On the flip side, Indianapolis will try to neutralize the pass rush by getting the ball out quickly and using play-action to manipulate Houston's aggressive linebackers. The Colts' offensive line has protected Jones exceptionally well all season, and they'll be tested by one of the most talented pass-rushing duos in football. If Houston's front four can't generate pressure with four rushers, the Texans may be forced to blitz, which opens up explosive plays for Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman.
Jonathan Taylor against anybody is a challenge, but the Texans' run defense has been stingy this season. Houston allows just 264.3 total yards per game, and while they're built to stop the pass, they've held up well against the run. The key will be limiting Taylor's explosive plays—his 5.8 yards per carry average is driven by chunk runs that shift field position and demoralize defenses.
Taylor has been held under 100 yards just twice this season, both times by top defenses scheming specifically to stop him. If the Texans can stack the box and force Jones to beat them through the air, they might be able to neutralize Indianapolis's most dangerous weapon. However, that strategy carries risk: Jones has been excellent at punishing teams that overcommit to stopping the run, and Michael Pittman lives for those one-on-one matchups.
The Texans will need linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (71 tackles) to be at his best in run fits, and they'll need their defensive line to hold the point of attack. Taylor's power between the tackles can wear down defenses, and by the fourth quarter, he often breaks free for game-changing runs. Houston's conditioning and gap discipline will be tested against one of the best running backs in NFL history in his current form.
The Colts opened as 3.5-point favorites and have seen some movement toward 4 points at various books. Indianapolis is 7-3-1 against the spread this season, one of the best cover rates in the NFL. They've been especially dominant at home, going 4-1-1 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium. The market respects what this team has accomplished and views them as the rightful favorites in this divisional showdown.
Houston is 5-6 against the spread this season, a mediocre record that doesn't fully reflect their defensive dominance. The Texans have covered in two of their last three games with Mills at quarterback, and their defense has kept games close even when the offense struggled. Getting 3.5 points with the NFL's best defense against a team they've beaten three straight times represents value.
The total of 44.5 reflects expectations of a lower-scoring affair. The under has hit in 7 of the Texans' 11 games this season, driven by their suffocating defense. Houston has held opponents to 16.5 points per game, and even Indianapolis's high-powered offense could be slowed by the league's top unit. The Colts average 31 points per game, but they've faced nothing like Houston's defensive front.
The recent head-to-head history is crucial context. Houston has won four of the last five meetings against Indianapolis, including both games last season. The Texans know how to beat this team, and that confidence matters. The Colts are the better team on paper this season, but paper doesn't win games—execution does, and Houston has executed in crunch time against Indianapolis consistently.
Colts Home Dominance Continues: Indianapolis jumps out early, Jonathan Taylor rushes for 150+ yards, and the Colts' offense operates at peak efficiency. Houston's defense makes plays but can't overcome their own offensive limitations. The Colts cover easily and extend their perfect home record to 7-0.
Texans Defense Takes Over: Houston's pass rush harasses Daniel Jones all game, the secondary locks down Michael Pittman, and the Texans force multiple turnovers. C.J. Stroud makes enough plays in his return to secure a road upset. Houston wins outright and swings the AFC South race.
Low-Scoring Defensive Struggle: Both defenses dominate, the total stays under 44.5, and the game comes down to a fourth-quarter field goal. Neither offense can establish consistent rhythm, and the outcome hinges on one big play or turnover. The team that makes fewer mistakes wins.
Stroud Shakes Off the Rust: C.J. Stroud looks like his rookie self, connecting with Nico Collins for multiple explosive plays. The Texans' offense, limited with Mills, opens up with Stroud's arm talent. Houston puts up points and keeps pace with Indianapolis in a competitive back-and-forth affair.
For the Colts, this game is about proving they're legitimate contenders, not just a team with a favorable early schedule. Their best start since 2009 means nothing if they can't beat a divisional rival who has owned them recently. A victory would put Indianapolis at 9-3 with a commanding two-game lead in the AFC South and put them in strong position for a first-round bye.
For the Texans, this is about keeping their playoff hopes alive and defending their two-time AFC South title. Houston can't afford to fall to 6-6 against a division rival, especially with the rematch coming in the regular season finale. A road win at Lucas Oil Stadium would announce that the Texans are still the team to beat in the AFC South, regardless of what the standings currently show.
The playoff implications are massive. A Houston victory would create a logjam at the top of the AFC South and set up a winner-take-all scenario in Week 18. A Colts victory would essentially eliminate any margin for error for Houston going forward. With both teams meeting again in January, Sunday's winner gains a significant psychological and tiebreaker advantage.
This is why we watch football. Two talented AFC South teams, recent head-to-head history that favors the underdog, a dominant defense versus a high-powered offense, and playoff positioning on the line. Lucas Oil Stadium will be electric, and the intensity will match any playoff game. Sunday afternoon in Indianapolis promises to be must-see television for anyone who loves divisional football at its finest.