NFL | Sunday, October 4

Lions vs Panthers on Sunday Night Football: Jahmyr Gibbs Gets A Run Defense Allowing 193 Yards A Game, And Bryce Young Gets A Lions Secondary Without Brian Branch

Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers, Week 4 Sunday Night Football, Featured Game of the Day

Three weeks in, Detroit and Carolina look like mirror images with the strengths swapped. The Lions run the ball well and can't stop the pass, giving up 326.3 passing yards a game. The Panthers throw it all over the field and can't stop the run, giving up 193.3 rushing yards a game. That's the whole story of Sunday night in Charlotte, and the betting market has noticed: the total opened 45.5 at DraftKings and it's 51.5 now.

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff, number 16 in the blue Lions home uniform, signaling first down at Ford Field, the quarterback who leads Detroit into Carolina on Sunday Night Football
Jared Goff signals a first down at Ford Field. He takes 8 touchdown passes and no interceptions into Sunday night in Charlotte | Photo: All Pro Reels, CC BY SA 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Detroit Lions Lions vs Panthers Carolina Panthers

Sunday, October 4, 2026 | 5:20 PM PT / 8:20 PM ET | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC | NBC
Week 4 Sunday Night Football | Lions 2, 1 (2, 0 home, 0, 1 road) | Panthers 1, 2 (0, 1 home, 1, 1 road)
Moneyline
DET -192 / CAR +160
Spread
DET -3.5 (-115) / CAR +3.5 (-105)
Total
51.5 (o -102 / u -118)
Implied Probability
DET 65.8% / CAR 38.5%
Lines: DraftKings via ESPN, read 4:32 AM PT October 4. Opened DET -3 / CAR +3, DET -162 / CAR +136, total 45.5.

Matchup Context

Detroit is 2 and 1, and every one of its games has turned into a shootout. The Lions beat New Orleans 31 to 30 at Ford Field in Week 1, lost 41 to 31 in Buffalo in Week 2, and beat the Jets 31 to 24 at home last Sunday. That's 31 points in all three games, and 95 points allowed across the three. Their games have produced 61, 72 and 55 total points.

Carolina is 1 and 2 and has been all over the map. The Panthers opened by losing 59 to 37 at home to Chicago, then went to Atlanta and won 34 to 3, then lost 21 to 18 in Cleveland. So the same team has played a 96 point game and two games in the 30s. Sunday night is only Carolina's second home game, and the first one ended with Chicago scoring 59.

This is Detroit's second road game. The first was the loss in Buffalo, where the defense gave up 41. The Lions still have the cleaner résumé: Jared Goff hasn't thrown an interception, Detroit has scored on every red zone trip, and ESPN's matchup predictor makes the Lions a 61 percent favorite.

Injury Report & Lineup Notes

Detroit Lions
Status
Branch (S) OUT Bartch (G) OUT Reed (CB) Questionable
Injured Reserve
C Cade Mays (wrist), S Thomas Harper (ankle)
Questionable
CB D.J. Reed (ribs), who also leads the Lions with 24 tackles. Branch is out with an Achilles injury and Bartch with a foot injury.
Carolina Panthers
Status
Lewis (G) OUT Coker (WR) Questionable Jackson, Hunter (DT) Questionable
Injured Reserve
WR Xavier Legette (knee)
Questionable
WR Jalen Coker (quadriceps), DT Cam Jackson (knee), DT Lee Hunter (foot). Lewis is out with an elbow injury.

The injury that matters most sits in the Detroit secondary. With Brian Branch out and Thomas Harper on injured reserve, the Lions are down two safeties against a passing offense averaging 313 yards a game, and cornerback D.J. Reed, the team's leading tackler, is questionable with a rib injury. On the other side, Carolina's two questionable defensive tackles, Cam Jackson and Lee Hunter, are the exact bodies a defense allowing 193.3 rushing yards a game can least afford to lose. And Jalen Coker, Carolina's leading receiver with 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, is questionable with a quad injury. His status could be the biggest single swing in this game.

Both offensive lines are patched too. Detroit is missing guard Ben Bartch and center Cade Mays; Carolina is without guard Damien Lewis.

Strength Against Weakness, Both Ways

When Detroit has the ball

Goff is 77 of 109 for 802 yards, 8 touchdowns and no interceptions. That's a 70.6 percent completion rate and a 116.1 passer rating. Amon Ra St. Brown has 23 catches for 228 yards and 5 touchdowns. But the Carolina matchup points somewhere else. The Panthers allow only 186 passing yards a game, and they give up 193.3 on the ground. That's where Jahmyr Gibbs comes in. He has 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 65 carries, about 4.7 a carry, and Detroit runs for 120.7 yards a game as a team at 4.4 a carry. If the Lions lean on Gibbs early, they also protect a defense that needs rest, and they already hold the ball longer, about 31 and a half minutes a game.

When Carolina has the ball

Bryce Young is 72 of 121 for 939 yards, 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and Carolina throws for 313 yards a game at 7.7 yards an attempt. Young's 59.5 percent completion rate says it hasn't been efficient so much as explosive. Now he gets a Lions defense allowing 326.3 passing yards and 443.7 total yards a game, missing Branch and maybe Reed. The counter is Aidan Hutchinson, who has 3.5 of Detroit's 12 sacks. Carolina has allowed 7 sacks, and its third down rate is only 36.8 percent. If Hutchinson wins early, the Panthers' passing game turns into the stop and start version that lost in Cleveland. Chuba Hubbard, with 184 yards on 41 carries, gives Carolina a way to stay ahead of the chains.

Advanced Stats & Style Profile

Detroit Lions (2026)

Record2, 1
Points for / against per game31.0 / 31.7
Yards per game / allowed388.0 / 443.7
Yards per play5.8
Pass yards allowed per game326.3
Rush yards allowed per game117.3
Third down conversion41.2%
Red zone scoring100%
Turnover margin+3 (4 takeaways, 1 giveaway)
Sacks / sacks allowed12 / 7

Carolina Panthers (2026)

Record1, 2
Points for / against per game29.7 / 27.7
Yards per game / allowed410.0 / 379.3
Yards per play6.3
Pass yards allowed per game186.0
Rush yards allowed per game193.3
Third down conversion36.8%
Red zone scoring92.3%
Turnover margin+3 (7 takeaways, 4 giveaways)
Sacks / sacks allowed7 / 7

Carolina actually gains more per snap, 6.3 yards a play to Detroit's 5.8, and outgains the Lions per game, 410 to 388. The gap is in finishing drives and in ball security. Detroit has given the ball away once in three games. Carolina has given it away four times, but it has also taken it away seven times, and the Panthers held Atlanta to 3 points in Week 2. Both defenses are giving up chunks: Detroit through the air, Carolina on the ground.

EPA and success rate figures were not available from a source that could be verified this morning, so this breakdown uses yards per play, which ESPN's team totals support directly.

Keys To The Game

Lions Keys
Feed Gibbs. A defense giving up 193.3 rushing yards a game is a soft matchup for a back averaging about 4.7 a carry.
Hutchinson in the backfield. His 3.5 sacks are the Lions' best answer to a passing game averaging 7.7 yards an attempt.
Keep the clean sheet. No interceptions from Goff in three games. Carolina has 3 picks and 7 takeaways.
Panthers Keys
Attack the safeties. With Branch out and Harper on injured reserve, the middle of the Detroit secondary is the softest spot on the field.
Coker's status. 222 yards and 2 touchdowns, and with Xavier Legette on injured reserve there isn't another receiver with that production.
Win third down. 36.8 percent won't keep Goff on the sideline, and Detroit converts 41.2 percent of its own.

Market Context

The biggest move is on the total. DraftKings opened it at 45.5 and it's 51.5 now, a six point climb, with the over at -102 and the under at -118. That's the market pricing in what the yardage numbers say: two defenses that have each allowed 27 or more points a game. Detroit's three games have averaged 62.7 total points, and Carolina's have averaged 57.3, though that number leans hard on the 96 point opener.

The side has moved toward Detroit as well. The Lions opened -3 and -162, and they're -3.5 and -192 now, with the -3.5 priced at -115. At -192 the moneyline implies about a 65.8 percent chance, a few points higher than ESPN's 61 percent predictor. ESPN's forecast for kickoff in Charlotte is 66 degrees with a 60 percent chance of rain and light wind.

Final Thoughts

This is a game where each team's best unit meets the other's worst. If Gibbs runs the way the numbers suggest, Detroit can control the clock and keep Young on the sideline. If Young finds the holes in a secondary missing Branch, Carolina can keep pace the way it did in a 37 point night against Chicago. The market has already decided it expects points and a Detroit edge. The questions left before kickoff are Coker's quad and Reed's ribs, and the inactive list about 90 minutes before the 5:20 PM Pacific kickoff will settle both.

Where Every Number Came From

Verification note (October 4, 2026, read between 4:20 and 4:35 AM PT). Kickoff time, venue, NBC, overall, home and road records, ESPN's matchup predictor, the injury list with statuses, season leaders (Goff, Young, Gibbs, Hubbard, St. Brown, Coker, Hutchinson, Reed) and the kickoff weather forecast come from ESPN's NFL scoreboard and game summary for event 401872978. The DraftKings open and current spread, moneyline and total come from ESPN's odds feed for the same event, read at 4:32 AM PT. Game by game scores for Weeks 1 to 3 come from ESPN's 2026 team schedules for Detroit and Carolina. Points, yards, passing and rushing yards for and against per game, completion rate, passer rating, yards per attempt and carry, third and fourth down rates, red zone scoring, takeaways, giveaways, sacks and possession time come from ESPN's 2026 regular season team statistics. Yards per play is calculated by BetLegend as total yards divided by offensive plays (Detroit 1,164 on 199, Carolina 1,230 on 196). Average total points per game are calculated from the scores above. Implied probabilities are calculated from the posted moneylines. EPA and success rate were not available from a verifiable source this morning and are omitted.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is Lions vs Panthers on October 4, 2026?
Sunday, October 4, 2026 at 5:20 PM Pacific (8:20 PM Eastern) at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, on NBC's Sunday Night Football.
What are the betting odds for Lions vs Panthers?
At DraftKings via ESPN, read 4:32 AM Pacific on October 4: Lions -3.5 at -115 and Panthers +3.5 at -105, Lions -192 and Panthers +160 on the moneyline, and a total of 51.5 with the over -102 and the under -118. The Lions opened -3 and the total opened 45.5.
What are the Lions' and Panthers' records?
Detroit is 2 and 1 (wins over New Orleans and the Jets, a loss at Buffalo). Carolina is 1 and 2 (a win at Atlanta, losses to Chicago and at Cleveland).
Who is injured for Lions vs Panthers?
Detroit safety Brian Branch and guard Ben Bartch are out, and cornerback D.J. Reed is questionable. Carolina guard Damien Lewis is out, and receiver Jalen Coker and defensive tackles Cam Jackson and Lee Hunter are questionable.
Who are the key players to watch?
Jared Goff (802 yards, 8 touchdowns, no interceptions), Jahmyr Gibbs (307 rushing yards, 4 touchdowns), Amon Ra St. Brown (5 touchdown catches) and Aidan Hutchinson (3.5 sacks) for Detroit; Bryce Young (939 yards, 7 touchdowns), Jalen Coker (222 receiving yards) and Chuba Hubbard (184 rushing yards) for Carolina.
Where is the game played?
Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. It's Carolina's second home game; the Panthers lost the first 59 to 37 to Chicago.

Link to this breakdown

MLB | Saturday, October 3

Yankees vs Rays ALDS Game 1: Cole And Rasmussen Run It Back, And Aaron Judge Is On The Injured List

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, American League Division Series Game 1, Featured Game of the Day

Less than two weeks ago these two starters faced these two lineups in the Bronx and both of them won. Drew Rasmussen struck out 11 Yankees over 6.2 innings on September 22, and Gerrit Cole struck out 8 Rays the next night. Now they open a division series at Tropicana Field, with the 98 win Rays a modest home favorite and the Yankees arriving off a two game Wild Card sweep of Boston that they pulled off without Aaron Judge.

Tampa Bay Rays starter Drew Rasmussen, in the white Rays home uniform, driving toward the plate during a June 2026 game, the right hander who starts ALDS Game 1 against the Yankees
Drew Rasmussen delivers during a June 2026 Rays game. He gets the ball in Game 1 against the Yankees | Photo: Raysfanjake1984, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons

New York Yankees Yankees vs Rays Tampa Bay Rays

Saturday, October 3, 2026 | 3:30 PM PT / 6:30 PM ET | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL | TBS, truTV
ALDS Game 1 | Rays 98, 64 (AL East champions) | Yankees 93, 68, swept Boston 2, 0 in the Wild Card Series | Rays won the season series 7, 6
Moneyline
NYY +113 / TB -137
Run Line
NYY +1.5 (-199) / TB -1.5 (+163)
Total
7 (o -107 / u -113)
Implied Probability
TB 57.8% / NYY 46.9%
Lines: DraftKings via ESPN, read 1:58 AM PT October 3. Opened TB -133 / NYY +110, run line TB -1.5 at +167, total 7 at -110 both ways.

Matchup Context

Tampa Bay won the American League East at 98 and 64, four and a half games clear of New York, and it did a lot of that damage at home. The Rays went 55 and 26 at Tropicana Field. The Yankees finished 93 and 68 and were actually better away from home than in the Bronx, 47 and 34 on the road against 46 and 34 at Yankee Stadium.

Here's the part the standings hide. New York finished with a run differential of +138. Tampa Bay finished at +86. The Yankees scored 739 runs and allowed 601; the Rays scored 736 and allowed 650. So the two offenses produced almost the same number of runs over a full season, and the gap was on the run prevention side, in New York's favor.

The two teams also limped into the final week the same way, 5 and 5 over their last ten regular season games. What happened after that is different. The Rays have not played since their regular season finale on September 27, a loss in Philadelphia. The Yankees beat Boston 9 to 0 and 9 to 2 at Yankee Stadium on September 29 and 30, with Cam Schlittler and Max Fried starting those games, which is why Cole lines up for Game 1 on full rest.

The season series could not have been much tighter. Tampa Bay won it 7 games to 6, but New York outscored the Rays 54 to 45 across those 13 games. The Rays took 5 of 7 at Tropicana Field, including a three game sweep in April by scores of 5 to 3, 5 to 4 and 5 to 4. New York took 4 of 6 in the Bronx, including 9 to 2 and 6 to 4 in the last two meetings on September 23 and 24.

Injury Report & Lineup Notes

New York Yankees
Judge (RF) OUT, 10 Day IL
Aaron Judge, calf, per ESPN's injury report updated October 2. He is not on the Yankees active roster in MLB's roster feed for October 3 and did not play in either Wild Card game.
Weathers, Schmidt (SP) OUT
Ryan Weathers, forearm, and Clarke Schmidt, biceps, both on the 15 day injured list.
Cruz, Castro (RP) OUT
Fernando Cruz and Kervin Castro, both elbow, both on the 60 day injured list.
Back in the mix
Giancarlo Stanton was activated from the 60 day injured list and Trent Grisham from the 10 day list on September 29. Grisham batted third in the Wild Card opener.
Starting
Gerrit Cole (RHP), confirmed as the probable by MLB and ESPN.
Tampa Bay Rays
McClanahan (SP) OUT
Shane McClanahan, forearm. He was activated from the 15 day list on September 28, but ESPN's report updated October 2 lists him out.
Jax (P) Day To Day
Griffin Jax, back.
Lux, Uceta, Heasley OUT
Gavin Lux (shoulder), Edwin Uceta (shoulder) and Jonathan Heasley (elbow), all on the 60 day injured list.
Starting
Drew Rasmussen (RHP), confirmed as the probable by MLB and ESPN.

Judge is the headline, but look at what the Yankees did without him. Two Wild Card games, 18 runs, and a lineup built around Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis García Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt. Judge only logged 285 plate appearances this season, with an .871 OPS and 18 home runs, so New York has spent a lot of 2026 playing without him already. Rice has been the engine: 41 home runs, 97 RBI and an .897 OPS over 667 plate appearances.

For Tampa Bay, McClanahan's status matters more for the shape of the series than for tonight. He beat the Yankees on July 8, and losing him thins the rotation behind Rasmussen. Jax being day to day with a back issue is the one to watch for Game 1 itself, since it could narrow Tampa Bay's pitching options.

Cole vs Rasmussen, Round Three

Drew Rasmussen

Rasmussen had the better season by just about every measure. He went 16 and 5 over 30 starts with a 2.67 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and 174 strikeouts against 32 walks in 172 innings. He allowed only 14 home runs, and opponents hit .199 against him. Using MLB's 2026 league totals, his FIP works out to 2.81, so the ERA isn't a mirage built on luck with balls in play. He was slightly better on the road (2.47) than at home (2.87), but both are excellent.

He's also on a run. Over his last six starts he allowed 6 earned runs in 37.2 innings and won all six. The last of those was the gem in the Bronx, 6.2 innings, 1 hit, 1 run and 11 strikeouts. Against the Yankees this season he made four starts and gave up 7 earned runs in 22 innings. Three of those starts were dominant, and one was a disaster: on July 9 New York knocked him out after 2.1 innings with 6 earned runs on 7 hits in a 12 to 4 win. That's the version of this game the Yankees are hoping for.

Gerrit Cole

Cole didn't make his first start until May 22, and he finished with 22 starts, a 10 and 9 record, a 3.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 127 innings. The strikeout and walk numbers are still elite, 131 strikeouts against 25 walks, but he gave up 22 home runs, and that pushes his FIP up to 3.92. Interestingly, he was better on the road (3.41 ERA) than at home (3.86).

Against the Rays, though, he has been very good. Three starts, 18 innings, 5 earned runs, 16 strikeouts and 1 home run allowed. He threw six scoreless innings against them at Yankee Stadium in his season debut on May 22, took a 3 to 0 loss at Tropicana Field on July 8 when the Yankees didn't score for him, and then beat the Rays on September 23 with 5.2 innings, 2 runs and 8 strikeouts. His recent form is less tidy than Rasmussen's: across his last six starts he went 34.1 innings and allowed 19 earned runs, including 5 in 4.1 innings against the Mets on September 12.

So the starting matchup is a strikeout pitcher with a home run problem against a strikeout pitcher who barely gives up the long ball. The Yankees hit 223 home runs this season, 54 more than the Rays. If Rasmussen keeps the ball in the yard the way he has all year, New York has to manufacture runs against a lineup that is built to do exactly that.

Advanced Stats & Style Profile

New York Yankees (2026)

Record93, 68
Run differential+138
Runs scored / allowed739 / 601
AVG / OBP / SLG.235 / .311 / .409
Team OPS.720
Home runs / strikeouts223 / 1,480
Team ERA / WHIP3.23 / 1.17
Saves / blown saves45 / 28
Cole ERA / FIP / WHIP3.61 / 3.92 / 1.10

Tampa Bay Rays (2026)

Record98, 64
Run differential+86
Runs scored / allowed736 / 650
AVG / OBP / SLG.258 / .326 / .402
Team OPS.728
Home runs / strikeouts169 / 1,145
Team ERA / WHIP3.70 / 1.14
Saves / blown saves58 / 19
Rasmussen ERA / FIP / WHIP2.67 / 2.81 / 0.91

These are two offenses that got to the same place by very different roads. Tampa Bay hit .258 as a team and struck out only 1,145 times, 335 fewer than New York. The Yankees hit .235 but slugged their way to almost the same OPS, .720 to .728, on the back of 223 home runs. One team puts the ball in play and runs (the Rays stole 164 bases), the other waits for a mistake it can hit over the wall.

On the run prevention side, the Yankees' staff had the lower ERA, 3.23 to 3.70, and allowed 36 fewer home runs. The Rays' staff walked fewer hitters (409 to 488) and had the better WHIP. The bullpens tell a split story too. Tampa Bay converted 58 saves and blew only 19. New York saved 45 and blew 28, which is a number worth keeping in mind if Game 1 is close in the eighth inning.

The lineup leaders line up with those profiles. Junior Caminero led the Rays with 42 home runs, 101 RBI and an .884 OPS. Yandy Díaz hit .293, Liam Hicks .284 with a .367 on base percentage, and Chandler Simpson hit .306 with 46 steals. For New York, Rice, García Jr. (30 home runs, .830 OPS) and Bellinger (.767 OPS) carry the lineup with Judge out. Team wRC+ wasn't available from a source we could verify this morning, so it's left out rather than guessed.

Keys To The Game

Yankees Keys
Find the mistake pitch. Rasmussen allowed 14 home runs in 172 innings. The Yankees hit 223. The one start where they got to him, July 9, they scored 12.
Cole keeps it in the park. His 22 home runs allowed are the only real blemish on his line, and his three starts against the Rays included just one.
Win the late innings. A bullpen with 28 blown saves has to hold a lead in a road playoff game.
Rays Keys
Put the ball in play. Tampa Bay struck out 335 fewer times than New York. Against a pitcher who fanned 131 in 127 innings, contact and speed are the path.
Rasmussen goes deep. He averaged under 6 innings a start but went 6 or more in five of his last six. Every out he gets keeps a short bench of relievers fresh.
Lean on the dome. 55 and 26 at Tropicana Field, and 5 and 2 at home against New York this season.

Market Context

DraftKings, as shown in ESPN's odds feed at 1:58 AM Pacific, has Tampa Bay -137 and New York +113. The moneyline opened at Rays -133 and Yankees +110, so the overnight move has been small and toward the home side, less than one point of implied probability. At -137 the Rays are implied at 57.8 percent before the vig comes out.

The run line followed it by a hair. Rays -1.5 opened at +167 and sits at +163, with the Yankees +1.5 at -199. The total opened at 7 with -110 on both sides and is still 7, now with the under at -113 and the over at -107. A total of 7 with two starters carrying 9 plus strikeouts per nine innings is the market saying it expects the starters to control this one, and the slight shade to the under fits Rasmussen's season. These numbers are early morning prices, and playoff lines tend to move as lineups are posted, so check them again before first pitch.

Final Thoughts

On paper, Tampa Bay has the better starter tonight, the better home record and the more reliable bullpen, and the price reflects that. New York has the better run differential, the deeper power and a lineup coming off two lopsided Wild Card wins, even without Judge. The Rays, for their part, have had five days off since their last game.

The cleanest way to read it: if Rasmussen pitches like he did on September 22, the Rays' contact offense only needs a few runs. If he pitches like he did on July 9, the Yankees have already shown they can turn that into a crooked number in a hurry. Cole's job is simpler to describe and harder to do: limit the home run, and keep a pesky lineup from stringing singles together.

This page is analysis only and carries no pick. Every BetLegend play is posted separately before the game and graded when it goes final at trustmyrecord.com.

Where Every Number Came From

Verification note (October 3, 2026, read between 1:55 and 2:05 AM PT). First pitch time, venue, TBS and truTV, records, home and road records, probable starters, the season series summary and ESPN's injury list come from ESPN's MLB scoreboard and game summary for event 401907985. The DraftKings open and current moneyline, run line and total come from ESPN's odds feed for the same event, read at 1:58 AM PT. Probable starters were confirmed against MLB's schedule feed (game 849835). Standings, run differential, last ten records and division standing come from MLB's 2026 standings API. Team hitting and pitching totals, pitcher season lines, home and road splits and game logs come from MLB's stats API (regular season only). The 13 game season series results and scores come from MLB's 2026 schedule. Wild Card scores and lineups come from MLB's box scores for games 849851 and 849848. Transactions (Stanton, Grisham, McClanahan activations) come from MLB's transactions feed, and the active roster check is MLB's roster feed for October 3. FIP is calculated by BetLegend as (13 HR + 3 (BB + HBP) minus 2 K) divided by innings, plus a 3.093 constant derived from MLB's 2026 league totals across all 30 teams. Implied probabilities are calculated from the posted moneylines. Team wRC+ and expected stats were not available from a verifiable source this morning and are omitted.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is Yankees vs Rays ALDS Game 1 on October 3, 2026?
Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 3:30 PM Pacific (6:30 PM Eastern) at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida, on TBS and truTV.
What are the betting odds for Yankees vs Rays Game 1?
At DraftKings via ESPN, read 1:58 AM Pacific on October 3: Rays -137 and Yankees +113 on the moneyline, Rays -1.5 at +163 and Yankees +1.5 at -199 on the run line, and a total of 7 with the over -107 and the under -113. The Rays opened -133.
Who are the starting pitchers for Yankees vs Rays Game 1?
Gerrit Cole for New York (10 and 9, 3.61 ERA, 131 strikeouts in 127 innings) and Drew Rasmussen for Tampa Bay (16 and 5, 2.67 ERA, 174 strikeouts in 172 innings).
Is Aaron Judge playing in ALDS Game 1?
ESPN's injury report, updated October 2, lists Judge on the 10 day injured list with a calf injury, and he is not on the Yankees active roster in MLB's roster feed for October 3. He did not play in either Wild Card game against Boston.
Who won the Yankees vs Rays season series in 2026?
Tampa Bay won it 7 games to 6, going 5 and 2 at Tropicana Field. New York outscored the Rays 54 to 45 across the 13 games.
How did the Yankees reach the Division Series?
They swept Boston in the Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium, 9 to 0 on September 29 and 9 to 2 on September 30. The Rays won the AL East at 98 and 64 and had not played since September 27.

Link to this breakdown

NHL | Friday, October 2

Blues vs Stars: Dallas Opens At Home With Last Season's Best Power Play Against A Kill That Leaked

St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars, NHL Opening Night 2026 to 27, Featured Game of the Day

Opening night in Dallas puts a 112 point team against an 86 point team, and the gap between them last season showed up most clearly with somebody in the penalty box. The Stars converted 28.6 percent of their power plays. The Blues killed 76.7 percent of theirs. The market has Dallas a solid home favorite, though it has come down off the opening number, and the goaltending matchup is the reason it might not be as simple as last season's standings.

Dallas Stars players in green line up for a faceoff at center ice inside American Airlines Center, where the Stars host the St. Louis Blues on opening night
The Stars in their home greens taking a faceoff at American Airlines Center, where they open the 2026 to 27 season against St. Louis | Photo: Michael Barera, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

St. Louis Blues Blues vs Stars Dallas Stars

Friday, October 2, 2026 | 6:00 PM PT / 9:00 PM ET | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX | TNT, truTV
Season opener for both | Last season: Dallas 112 points, St. Louis 86 | Dallas won the series 3 to 1
Moneyline
STL +154 / DAL -185
Puck Line
STL +1.5 (-175) / DAL -1.5 (+145)
Total
5.5 (o -135 / u +114)
Implied Probability
DAL 64.9% / STL 39.4%
Lines: DraftKings via ESPN, read 9:16 AM PT October 2. Opened DAL -205 / STL +170, puck line DAL -1.5 at +120, over 5.5 at -120.

Matchup Context

Nobody has played a game yet, so everything we know about this matchup comes from last season and the offseason roster moves. Last season was not close. Dallas finished with 112 points, 50 wins, 20 regulation losses and 12 overtime losses, and a goal differential of +53. St. Louis finished with 86 points on 37 wins, 33 regulation losses and 12 overtime losses, and it was outscored by 27 over 82 games.

The Stars were also a very good home team. They went 26, 11 and 4 at American Airlines Center, while the Blues went 17, 19 and 5 on the road. Both clubs finished the season playing well, Dallas 7, 2 and 1 over its last ten and St. Louis 6, 3 and 1, so neither one limped into the summer.

The head to head leaned Dallas too. The Stars took 3 of 4 meetings, all four settled in regulation. St. Louis won the first one 3 to 1 at home on October 18, 2025. Dallas then won 3 to 2 at home in January, 4 to 3 in St. Louis four days later, and 5 to 4 at home on February 4. The last three were all one goal games, which is worth remembering before you assume the standings gap shows up on the scoreboard.

It's a Central Division game on the first night of the season, on national television. Both teams get a clean slate and an immediate measuring stick.

Injury Report & Lineup Notes

St. Louis Blues
Mailloux (D) OUT
Logan Mailloux, injured reserve, hand.
Tucker (D) OUT
Tyler Tucker, injured reserve, knee. Two of the Blues defensemen on ESPN's roster open on injured reserve.
Trudeau OUT
Felix Trudeau, injured reserve, undisclosed.
Expected in goal
Joel Hofer (ESPN probable).
New on the roster
Connor McMichael (46 points for Washington last season), Mason McTavish (41 points for Anaheim), Brandon Carlo and Justin Barron. Jordan Kyrou, fifth on the Blues in points last season with 46, is not on the current ESPN roster.
Dallas Stars
Duchene (C) OUT
Matt Duchene, injured reserve, lower body. He had 45 points in 57 games last season, fifth on the team.
Hughes OUT
Cameron Hughes, injured reserve, upper body.
Scott, Krys, Bertucci OUT
Harrison Scott, Luke Krys and Tristan Bertucci, injured reserve, undisclosed.
Expected in goal
Jake Oettinger (ESPN probable).

Duchene is the name that matters most. Dallas still has its top four scorers from last season, but losing a 45 point center thins out the middle six and the second power play unit. On the St. Louis side the bigger story is roster turnover rather than injuries: McMichael and McTavish combined for 87 points elsewhere last season and both arrive as new faces against a team they haven't faced in a Blues sweater.

Oettinger, Hofer And The Special Teams Gap

The goaltending

Here's the part of the matchup that runs against the standings. Joel Hofer was the better goalie on a per shot basis last season. He started 43 games, went 24 and 13, and stopped .910 of the shots he faced with a 2.61 goals against average and 6 shutouts. Jake Oettinger carried a bigger load, 54 starts and 35 wins against 12 losses, but his save percentage was .899 with a 2.59 goals against average and 4 shutouts.

Oettinger's goals against average was slightly lower because the team in front of him allowed fewer shots. Dallas gave up 26.2 shots a game; St. Louis gave up 27.7. Strip that out and Hofer had the better individual season, which is the main reason a team that finished 26 points behind can win a game like this.

The power play against the kill

This is where Dallas separated itself. The Stars' power play converted 28.6 percent of the time last season, and Robertson, Johnston and Rantanen each had at least 34 power play points. The Blues killed 76.7 percent of their penalties. Flip it around and St. Louis converted 17.6 percent with the extra man, against a Dallas kill that worked 80.3 percent of the time.

At five on five the two teams looked much more alike than the standings suggest. Both averaged 25.3 shots a game. Dallas won 51.6 percent of its faceoffs and St. Louis 49.4. The difference in goals, 3.33 a game for Dallas against 2.80 for St. Louis, leans heavily on what happened on special teams.

Advanced Stats & Style Profile

St. Louis Blues (2025 to 26)

Points / goal differential86 / -27
Goals for / against per game2.80 / 3.10
Shots for / against per game25.3 / 27.7
Power play17.6%
Penalty kill76.7%
Faceoff win rate49.4%
Road record17, 19, 5
Hofer save pct / GAA.910 / 2.61

Dallas Stars (2025 to 26)

Points / goal differential112 / +53
Goals for / against per game3.33 / 2.71
Shots for / against per game25.3 / 26.2
Power play28.6%
Penalty kill80.3%
Faceoff win rate51.6%
Home record26, 11, 4
Oettinger save pct / GAA.899 / 2.59

The profile is a Dallas team that doesn't outshoot people by much but converts more of its chances, especially with the man advantage, and keeps the puck out of its own net slightly better. St. Louis gave up more shots than it took and relied on Hofer to bail out a below average penalty kill. We could not read an expected goals share (xGF%) from a source we could verify this morning, so it is left off rather than guessed.

Scoring depth is another Dallas edge on paper. Robertson and Johnston both scored 45 goals, Robertson finished with 96 points, Johnston 86, Rantanen 77 in 64 games and Heiskanen 63 from the blue line. Robert Thomas led St. Louis with 64 points in 64 games, followed by Holloway and Snuggerud at 51 each.

Keys To The Game

Blues Keys
Stay out of the box. A 76.7 percent kill against a 28.6 percent power play is the worst matchup on the board for St. Louis. Five on five, these teams were even on shots.
Let Hofer steal it. His .910 last season was better than Oettinger's .899. A one goal game is the Blues' path, and three of last season's four meetings were one goal games.
Get the new forwards going. McMichael and McTavish add 87 points of last season's production to a lineup that needed scoring behind Thomas.
Stars Keys
Draw penalties. Robertson, Johnston and Rantanen each had at least 34 power play points. More power plays means more of Dallas's biggest advantage.
Cover for Duchene. A 45 point center is out, so the depth lines have to hold their own against a Blues lineup with new faces.
Keep the home edge. 26, 11 and 4 at American Airlines Center last season, and both of last season's meetings in Dallas went to the Stars.

Market Context

DraftKings, as shown in ESPN's odds feed at 9:16 AM Pacific, has Dallas -185 and St. Louis +154. Those numbers opened at Dallas -205 and St. Louis +170, so the price has moved toward the Blues by about two points of implied probability. At -185 the Stars are implied at 64.9 percent before the vig comes out, and the Blues at 39.4 percent.

The puck line moved the same way. Dallas -1.5 opened at +120 and now sits at +145, with St. Louis +1.5 at -175. The total is 5.5, but the over has been bet from -120 to -135 with the under now +114. So the market is leaning toward a little more scoring and a slightly closer game than the opening numbers said, which lines up with Hofer's season and the turnover in the Blues forward group.

Final Thoughts

On last season's evidence Dallas is the better team in nearly every way that matters: points, goal differential, home record, scoring depth and above all special teams. The one place St. Louis had the edge was in goal, and a goaltender is the one player who can flatten a talent gap for a single night.

So the question is simple. If the Blues stay disciplined and keep the Stars' power play on the bench, this looks a lot like the last three meetings, one goal either way. If Dallas gets four or five power plays, last season's numbers say that's where the game gets decided.

This page is analysis only and carries no pick. Every BetLegend play is posted separately before the game and graded when it goes final at trustmyrecord.com.

Where Every Number Came From

Verification note (October 2, 2026, read between 9:00 and 9:20 AM PT). Puck drop, venue, TNT and truTV, the 0, 0, 0 records, probable goalies, injured reserve lists and the DraftKings open and current moneyline, puck line and total come from ESPN's NHL scoreboard and game summary for event 401891782, read at 9:16 AM PT. Current rosters come from ESPN's team roster pages. Last season's points, goals for and against, shots, power play, penalty kill and faceoff numbers come from the NHL stats API team summary for 2025 to 26; skater points and power play points from the NHL skater summary; goalie starts, record, save percentage, GAA and shutouts from the NHL goalie summary; home, road and last ten splits from the NHL standings API at the end of the regular season; head to head scores from the NHL club schedule API. No expected goals figure is shown because none was read from a verifiable source.

Frequently Asked Questions

What time is Blues vs Stars on October 2, 2026?
Friday, October 2, 2026 at 6:00 PM Pacific (9:00 PM Eastern) at American Airlines Center in Dallas, on TNT and truTV. It is the season opener for both teams.
What are the betting odds for Blues vs Stars?
At DraftKings via ESPN, read 9:16 AM Pacific on October 2: Dallas -185 and St. Louis +154 on the moneyline, Dallas -1.5 at +145 and St. Louis +1.5 at -175 on the puck line, and a total of 5.5 with the over -135 and the under +114. Dallas opened -205.
How did the Stars and Blues finish last season?
Dallas went 50 wins, 20 regulation losses and 12 overtime losses for 112 points and a +53 goal differential. St. Louis went 37, 33 and 12 for 86 points and a goal differential of -27. Dallas won the season series 3 games to 1.
Where is the game played?
American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas. The Stars went 26, 11 and 4 there last season; the Blues went 17, 19 and 5 on the road.
Who are the key players to watch?
For Dallas: Jason Robertson (45 goals, 96 points last season), Wyatt Johnston (45 goals, 86 points), Mikko Rantanen (77 points in 64 games) and Miro Heiskanen (63 points). For St. Louis: Robert Thomas (64 points in 64 games), Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud (51 points each), plus newcomers Connor McMichael and Mason McTavish.
Who starts in goal for Blues vs Stars?
ESPN lists Jake Oettinger as the expected Dallas starter (.899 save percentage, 2.59 GAA in 54 starts last season) and Joel Hofer for St. Louis (.910, 2.61 GAA, 6 shutouts in 43 starts).

Link to this breakdown

Earlier breakdowns