NFL January 18, 2026

Houston's Ten-Game Tear

The Texans haven't lost since Week 8. Ten consecutive victories, including a demolition job on Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round that sent a message to the entire AFC. This isn't the same Houston team that stumbled to 3-5 at the midpoint of the season. DeMeco Ryans flipped a switch somewhere around Halloween, and his defense has been borderline elite since, allowing just 17.4 points per game during this winning streak. The question isn't whether Houston belongs in the Divisional Round. The question is whether anyone has figured out how to slow them down.

But there's a massive elephant in the room: Nico Collins is in concussion protocol and unlikely to suit up Sunday. Collins has been Houston's most explosive weapon, averaging 17.8 yards per catch and drawing safety help on nearly every snap. Without him, C.J. Stroud loses his best downfield option. Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs are capable receivers, but neither commands the same respect from opposing secondaries. New England's Bill Belichick Jr., defensive coordinator, will absolutely game-plan to bracket Dell and force Houston to win underneath. The Patriots secondary, which has surrendered just 185.4 passing yards per game, is built for exactly this type of matchup.

The Patriots' ATS Dominance

Here's the number that should grab your attention: New England is 12-5-1 against the spread this season. Even more impressive? They've covered in 12 of their last 15 games, generating +8.70 units for spread bettors over that stretch. The Patriots don't just win games. They win by more than the market expects. Their +128 point differential is second-best in the AFC, and they've been especially lethal at home, going 9-0 straight up at Gillette Stadium with an average margin of victory of 13.7 points.

The under narrative is equally compelling. Houston has played to the under in 13 of 19 games this season, including six of their last eight. New England's defense ranks 6th in scoring allowed at 18.9 points per game. Combined with a total of 40.5, the market is betting on a defensive slugfest. Both teams rank in the top 10 in red zone defense percentage, which typically translates to field goals instead of touchdowns. When two elite defenses meet with a total this low, it's usually for good reason.

The Historical Wrinkle

Houston is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings against New England. That's a significant trend, and it suggests the market has consistently undervalued the Texans in this matchup. However, context matters: those games came against a Patriots team in transition. This 15-3 New England squad represents the best Patriots team since the dynasty years. They're 6-2 ATS as home favorites this season, and their 41.0% third down defense, second-best in the NFL, creates problems for even the best quarterbacks. Stroud completed just 57.8% of his passes against top-10 defenses this season. New England qualifies, and without Collins to stretch the field, the margin for error shrinks considerably.

The Bottom Line

This matchup pits Houston's momentum against New England's dominance at home. The Texans are riding a ten-game win streak with a defense that has transformed into one of the AFC's best. But losing Nico Collins, their most dangerous receiver, against a secondary that has allowed fewer than 190 passing yards per game, represents a significant blow. The Patriots' 12-5-1 ATS record isn't accidental. They're well-coached, they execute at home, and they've covered 12 of their last 15. Houston's 6-2 ATS mark over their last eight games keeps them in the conversation, but the under trend, hitting in 13 of 19 Texans games, might be the sharpest angle on the board. With two elite defenses and a depleted Houston receiving corps, points could be at a premium in Foxborough.

The Stafford Injury Question

Matthew Stafford is playing hurt. His sprained index finger on his throwing hand affected him throughout the Wild Card round, where he completed just 24 of 42 passes with visible discomfort on deep throws. Stafford is tough enough to play through it, he always has been, but the accuracy concerns are real. His completion percentage over his last three games has dropped to 54.7%, down from his season average of 67.2%. Against a Bears defense that has forced 28 turnovers this season, third-most in the NFL, any errant throw becomes a potential disaster.

The line movement tells a story. This game opened with the Rams as 4.5-point road favorites. It's now down to -3.5, with some books even showing -3. That's a full point of movement toward Chicago, and sharp money doesn't move playoff lines by accident. The market is adjusting for Stafford's health, for Chicago's home-field advantage in January, and for the reality that Sean McVay hasn't won a playoff game at Soldier Field in his coaching career. The Bears are catching points for a reason.

Chicago's Wild Card Comeback

The Bears were dead. Down 18 points in the third quarter of their Wild Card matchup, the season looked finished. Then Ben Johnson's offense found another gear. Chicago scored 24 unanswered points, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes, to complete one of the most improbable comebacks in franchise playoff history. That kind of experience, the belief that comes from surviving elimination, can't be quantified. The Bears know they can win when everything is going wrong. That's a dangerous mentality in January.

Johnson's first season as head coach has been a revelation. The former Lions offensive coordinator has Chicago averaging 27.8 points per game, the franchise's highest output since 2018. Justin Fields has developed into a legitimate MVP candidate, posting 4,127 passing yards with 32 touchdowns and just 9 interceptions. The Bears are 12-5-1 ATS this season, matching New England for the best cover rate in the league. Chicago covers more often than they lose outright, and they've been especially profitable at home, going 7-2 ATS at Soldier Field.

The Over/Under Equation

The over has hit in 11 of 17 Rams games this season. Los Angeles plays fast, scores often, and has allowed 24.1 points per game to opponents. Chicago's games have been more balanced, going 9-9 to the over/under, but their Wild Card shootout pushed 51 combined points. With a total of 48.5, the market is expecting points. The Rams' pass defense has surrendered 247.3 yards per game, 23rd in the NFL, which creates opportunities for Fields to attack downfield. If both quarterbacks are healthy enough to push the pace, this game could exceed expectations.

The Bottom Line

This is the most fascinating matchup of the Divisional Round. The Rams have the experience advantage with Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and a proven playoff pedigree. But Stafford's finger injury is real, the line has moved a full point toward Chicago, and the Bears are riding the emotional momentum of a historic comeback. Chicago's 12-5-1 ATS record suggests the market has undervalued them all season. The Rams' 12-6 ATS mark isn't far behind, but laying points on the road with an injured quarterback against a team that just proved they can win from any deficit is a difficult proposition. Ben Johnson has Chicago playing fearless football, and the home crowd at Soldier Field in January will be deafening. Whether the Rams' experience outweighs the situational factors, or whether Chicago's momentum carries them to another upset, makes this game the must-watch of the weekend.