Champions Classic 2025

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#17 Michigan State Spartans vs #12 Kentucky Wildcats

Mark Pope's first season at Kentucky has been everything Big Blue Nation hoped for. The Wildcats enter 3-1 with their only loss coming in a competitive game against quality opposition. Pope assembled this roster through the transfer portal and high-level recruiting, bringing in talent that fits his up-tempo, three-point heavy offensive system. Senior guard Otega Oweh leads the way, averaging 16.2 points and 4.7 rebounds on 49% shooting and 35.5% from three. Oweh went through the NBA Draft process while maintaining eligibility, and his decision to return gives Kentucky an experienced floor general who can create offense in isolation and make plays for others.

Kentucky's offensive identity revolves around pace and three-point volume. Pope wants to push tempo, create transition opportunities, and launch threes in rhythm before defenses get set. The Wildcats have athletes who can get out and run, shooters who can space the floor, and enough size to compete on the glass. When Kentucky gets rolling offensively, they're capable of putting up 85-90 points against anybody. The question is whether they can execute that style against Tom Izzo's disciplined, physical Michigan State defense.

Tom Izzo is in his 31st season at Michigan State, and the Spartans are 3-0 with wins over Colgate and San Jose State. Izzo named four team captains this season—Coen Carr, Carson Cooper, Jeremy Fears Jr., and Jaxon Kohler—which tells you everything about his leadership-driven program culture. Kohler has been exceptional early, posting a double-double of 15 points and 10 rebounds in the exhibition, 16 points and 15 rebounds against Colgate, and 17 points with a career-high 18 rebounds against San Jose State. Kohler is a physical, traditional big man who controls the paint, sets hard screens, and battles for every rebound. Against Kentucky's perimeter-oriented attack, Kohler's interior presence becomes the defensive anchor.

Michigan State's strength is defensive toughness and physicality. Izzo teams always guard, always compete, and always make opponents work for every basket. The Spartans will pressure Kentucky's ballhandlers, contest every three-point attempt, and force the Wildcats into tough shots late in the shot clock. Michigan State plays with Big Ten physicality—hard fouls, aggressive closeouts, and constant body contact that wears down opponents over 40 minutes. Kentucky's perimeter players will have to absorb contact, fight through screens, and execute in traffic all night.

The matchup to watch is Kentucky's perimeter shooting versus Michigan State's perimeter defense. If the Wildcats get hot from three and knock down 12-15 threes on high volume, they'll blow this game open and cover the 4.5-point spread easily. But if Michigan State runs shooters off the line, forces Kentucky into contested mid-range twos, and controls the pace, this becomes a grind-it-out game where every possession matters. Izzo's teams thrive in those environments. Kentucky is built for track meets where possessions fly and threes rain down.

The other critical factor is experience in big games. Tom Izzo has coached in dozens of Champions Classic, Final Four, and Elite Eight games at Madison Square Garden and neutral court venues. Mark Pope is in his first year at Kentucky and his first truly elite neutral court showcase as a head coach. Izzo's teams know how to handle the bright lights, the media attention, and the pressure of playing college basketball's blue bloods. Kentucky has talent advantages, but Michigan State has experience and coaching edges.

The betting market has Kentucky favored by 4.5 points with a total of 152.5, which projects an implied score of Kentucky 78, Michigan State 74. That's a reasonable number given Kentucky's offensive firepower and Michigan State's defensive capabilities. The Wildcats should win this game if they shoot even remotely close to their season averages from three-point range. But 4.5 points is a tight spread that gives Michigan State bettors hope for a backdoor cover if the game comes down to free throws in the final minute.

SportsLine's computer model projects Michigan State 76, Kentucky 79 after running 10,000 simulations, which aligns with the market spread almost perfectly. The model gives Kentucky a 68.6% win probability, meaning Michigan State has a real 31% chance to win this game outright. That's not insignificant. When an underdog has that much win equity, the +4.5 points become even more valuable.

We're taking Kentucky -4.5 because talent wins in November. Mark Pope has assembled a roster that can score with anybody, and Otega Oweh gives Kentucky the veteran guard play needed to execute in crunch time. Michigan State will make this competitive and Izzo will have his team prepared, but Kentucky's offensive firepower should be the difference. The Wildcats win something like 81-74, covering the spread and pushing this game over the total.

We also lean Over 152.5 because Kentucky's pace will dictate possessions. Even if Michigan State wants to slow it down, the Wildcats will push every defensive rebound and look to attack in transition. Both teams have capable scorers, and Madison Square Garden tends to produce offensive environments in marquee matchups where teams feed off the energy. Six players will hit double figures, the pace will be elevated, and we'll see 78-80 possessions instead of 68-70. That pushes this game into the 155-160 range.

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#24 Kansas Jayhawks vs #5 Duke Blue Devils

This is Cooper Flagg's introduction to college basketball royalty. Duke's generational freshman phenom faces Bill Self's Kansas program in a game that will define early season narratives and national player of the year conversations. The Blue Devils enter 4-0 and ranked 5th nationally, laying 11 points as favorites against a Kansas team that's 3-1 with their only loss coming to North Carolina. Duke has averaged over 100 points in their last three games, showcasing an explosive offense led by Cameron Boozer's 22.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. When Duke gets rolling, they're capable of blowing out anybody.

Cooper Flagg is the story, but Cameron Boozer is the engine. The 6'9", 250-pound sophomore forward dominates inside with a combination of size, skill, and basketball IQ that makes him virtually unstoppable in the paint. Boozer dropped 35 points, 12 rebounds, five steals, and three blocks in Duke's most recent game against Indiana State, showing the full arsenal of moves and the physical dominance that makes him a lottery pick. Against Kansas, Boozer will attack the rim relentlessly, draw fouls, and force the Jayhawks to collapse their defense, creating open threes for Duke's shooters on kickouts.

Duke's offensive identity is predicated on getting downhill and attacking the basket. Jon Scheyer wants his guards pressuring the rim, his forwards posting up mismatches, and his bigs finishing above the rim on lobs and putbacks. The Blue Devils shoot a high volume of threes, but those threes come in rhythm off drive-and-kick actions rather than pull-up isolation attempts. When Duke's offense clicks, they generate layups, free throws, and open threes all within the same possession sequence. Kansas will have to guard without fouling, rotate perfectly on help defense, and contest every shot without giving up offensive rebounds.

Kansas counters with Bill Self, one of the greatest coaches in college basketball history. Self has won national championships, reached multiple Final Fours, and built Kansas into a perennial powerhouse. The Jayhawks are 3-1 with wins over Texas A&M Corpus Christi and Princeton, showing they can execute Self's system against quality mid-major competition. Kansas plays disciplined defense, controls tempo in the halfcourt, and rarely beats themselves with turnovers or defensive breakdowns. Self will have a game plan to slow Duke's transition attack and force the Blue Devils into contested halfcourt possessions.

The Jayhawks' strength is defensive versatility and depth. Self can throw multiple defenders at Boozer, switch ball screens to take away Duke's drive-and-kick actions, and adjust defensive schemes mid-game based on what Duke is exploiting. Kansas won't panic if Duke goes on a 12-2 run. They'll call timeout, make adjustments, and grind their way back into the game with disciplined execution and veteran composure. That's what makes Kansas dangerous as an 11-point underdog—they have the coaching and experience to hang around and cover even if they don't win outright.

The spread of Duke -11 is substantial, but it reflects the talent gap and Duke's recent offensive explosion. The Blue Devils have been scoring 100+ points in their last three games, which is an absurd pace and efficiency level that's unsustainable against elite competition. Kansas will slow this game down, limit possessions, and try to keep the final score in the low 70s where an 11-point margin becomes a 5-6 possession swing. That's a lot to ask from Duke, especially if the game tightens up in the final five minutes and Bill Self starts milking the clock.

The public is hammering Kansas at 61% of bets on the Jayhawks +11, which tells you the market sees value on the underdog getting double-digit points. Sharp bettors respect Bill Self and know that Kansas can hang with anybody in November. The contrarian play is Duke -11, banking on Cameron Boozer dominating and the Blue Devils winning something like 82-68 to cover comfortably. But Kansas has the coaching, discipline, and veteran presence to make this a 6-8 point game that stays under the spread.

The total of 148.5 is moderate, reflecting uncertainty about pace. Duke wants to run and score 85-90 points. Kansas wants to control tempo and keep this in the 72-75 range. Whichever team imposes their style will determine whether this game flies over or stays comfortably under. SportsLine's model is projecting the Over, banking on Duke's recent offensive explosion continuing and both teams hitting double figures in made threes.

We're taking Kansas +11 because Bill Self doesn't lose by double digits in neutral court games against elite competition. Kansas will execute, stay disciplined, and make Duke earn every bucket in the halfcourt. Even if Duke wins 78-70, Kansas covers the spread with room to spare. The Jayhawks have the coaching advantage, the experience in big games, and the defensive versatility to slow down Duke's offensive attack. This game will be competitive throughout, and Kansas keeps it within single digits.

We also lean Under 148.5 because Kansas will dictate pace. The Jayhawks don't want to play Duke's style, and Bill Self is too smart to get into a track meet against an opponent with superior athletes. Kansas will walk the ball up, run 25-30 seconds off the shot clock every possession, and force Duke to defend for extended stretches. That grinds the pace down, limits total possessions, and keeps this game in the 140-145 range. Duke wins 75-67, Kansas covers, and the Under cashes.

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Navy Midshipmen @ #18 North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina enters 4-0 and ranked 18th nationally, hosting Navy at the Dean Smith Center in a game that should be a comfortable blowout victory for the Tar Heels. Navy is 2-2 on the season and facing a massive talent gap against an ACC power playing at home in front of a packed crowd. The 26-point spread reflects the reality that North Carolina should dominate from opening tip to final buzzer.

The Tar Heels have been sharp early in the season, covering the spread in 3 of their 4 games with a 75% ATS rate. North Carolina's offense is explosive, their defense is athletic and long, and playing at the Dean Dome gives them a significant home court advantage. Navy will struggle to score in halfcourt sets against North Carolina's pressure defense and length. The Midshipmen lack the size and athleticism to compete on the glass, which will lead to second-chance opportunities for UNC.

The question isn't whether North Carolina wins—it's whether they cover 26 points. That's a massive spread that requires sustained intensity for 40 minutes. If UNC comes out sharp and plays their A-game for the full 40, they win by 35+ and cover easily. But if the Tar Heels take their foot off the gas in the second half, Navy could cut into a big lead with garbage time scoring. First half spread offers more value than the full game number.

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Winthrop Eagles @ #21 Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas is 3-1 and ranked 21st nationally, hosting Winthrop at Bud Walton Arena in what should be a dominant performance by the Razorbacks. Arkansas has won its three nonconference home games (Southern, Central Arkansas, and Samford) by a combined 73-point margin, showing they're executing at a high level and blowing out inferior competition. Winthrop enters 2-2 and facing a massive talent gap against an SEC program with tournament aspirations.

The betting market projects Arkansas will win with 77.5% confidence based on simulations and recent matchups. The spread model gives Arkansas a 59.6% chance to cover the 22-point spread, which is substantial value on the favorite. Arkansas has the size, depth, and athleticism advantages across every position. Winthrop will try to slow the pace and limit possessions, but Arkansas' pressure defense forces turnovers and creates transition opportunities where the Razorbacks thrive.

The total of 168 is elevated, reflecting Arkansas' up-tempo offensive style and Winthrop's willingness to play fast and launch threes. If Arkansas gets out and runs, this game flies over the total easily. The Razorbacks could score 90+ if they maintain intensity and push pace for 40 minutes. Arkansas covers the 22-point spread and the game goes over 168 in a track meet where the Hogs dominate.

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Vermont Catamounts @ Buffalo Bulls

This is a quality mid-major matchup featuring Vermont (4-0) and Buffalo (4-0), two undefeated teams battling on a neutral court. Vermont is the America East favorite and projects as one of the best mid-major programs in the country. Buffalo is a MAC contender that's been executing at a high level early in the season. The 3-point spread reflects how evenly matched these teams are, making this a compelling betting opportunity.

Vermont averaged just 8.8 turnovers per game last season, the best in the America East, showing exceptional ball security and disciplined offensive execution. The Catamounts also posted a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio, demonstrating smart passing and decision-making. Buffalo, meanwhile, averaged 14.3 turnovers per game last season, the highest in the MAC, and allowed 79.9 points per game, also the worst in the conference. Those defensive struggles could be exploited by Vermont's efficient offense.

The total of 141.5 suggests a moderate-scoring game where both teams play disciplined defense and control tempo. Vermont will try to limit possessions and execute in halfcourt sets, while Buffalo wants to push pace and create transition opportunities. This projects as a close game throughout with the winner determined in the final five minutes. Vermont has the edge in ball security and efficiency, making them the value play at +3 if you can get them as an underdog, or lean Buffalo -3 at home if the line hasn't moved.

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Tennessee-Martin Skyhawks @ Florida State Seminoles

Florida State hosts Tennessee-Martin in a game where the Seminoles are massive 20-point favorites at home. FSU is 2-1 on the season and looking to build momentum against an inferior opponent. Tennessee-Martin enters 3-0 with wins over lower-tier competition, but the Skyhawks face a massive talent gap against an ACC program. Florida State has the size, athleticism, and depth advantages at every position.

The Seminoles will look to impose their will defensively, pressuring UT-Martin's guards, contesting every shot, and controlling the glass. Florida State's length and athleticism should create havoc, forcing turnovers that lead to transition baskets. The question is whether FSU covers the 20-point spread. That requires sustained focus and intensity for 40 minutes, which ACC programs don't always bring against lower-tier opponents in November.

Tennessee-Martin has been impressive at 3-0 with a perfect 2-0 record on the road, showing they can compete away from home. The Skyhawks are also 2-0 ATS, suggesting they've been undervalued by betting markets. While FSU should win this game comfortably, Tennessee-Martin could keep it within 15-18 points and force a backdoor cover. The total of 163 suggests a moderate-scoring game. Florida State likely wins 82-65, covering the spread but staying under the total.

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Iowa Hawkeyes vs SE Missouri State Redhawks

Iowa is 3-0 with a perfect 3-0 home record at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, hosting SE Missouri State in a game where the Hawkeyes are favored by 24.5 points. Iowa has been solid at covering spreads with a 2-1 ATS record, showing they can beat expectations against inferior competition. SE Missouri State enters 1-3 overall with an 0-2 road record and an 1-2 ATS mark, suggesting the Redhawks struggle away from home.

The Hawkeyes will control this game from the opening tip. Iowa has the size advantage in the post, the athleticism advantage on the perimeter, and the depth to wear down SEMO over 40 minutes. The Redhawks will try to slow the pace and limit possessions, but Iowa's defensive pressure creates turnovers that lead to easy baskets in transition. Iowa should dominate the glass, control tempo, and dictate style of play.

The 24.5-point spread is steep but justified. Iowa has been executing at a high level at home, and SEMO lacks the talent to compete with a Big Ten program for 40 minutes. The total of 147 is moderate, suggesting a defensive-minded game where Iowa controls pace and SEMO struggles to score. Iowa wins comfortably, likely 82-55, covering the spread and staying under the total in a game that's never competitive.