NCAAF Analysis

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#7 Ole Miss @ Mississippi State (Egg Bowl)

The 122nd Egg Bowl brings No. 7 Ole Miss (10-1, 6-1 SEC) to Starkville to face Mississippi State (5-6, 1-6 SEC) in a game with vastly different implications for each team. The Rebels are likely bound for the College Football Playoff with a win and have won four straight. Lane Kiffin has this program playing elite football, though his future is the subject of endless speculation as other programs pursue him.

Mississippi State Needs This

Mississippi State needs this win for bowl eligibility after a disappointing conference run. The Bulldogs haven't won six games since 2022 but have extra motivation facing their bitter rival. Historically, State covers in the Egg Bowl - they're 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The total has gone under in eight straight Egg Bowls, so despite the 62.5 number, this could be lower-scoring than expected.

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#4 Georgia vs #23 Georgia Tech

Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate returns to Mercedes-Benz Stadium with No. 4 Georgia (10-1) facing No. 23 Georgia Tech (9-2). Last year's meeting went to eight overtimes with Georgia escaping 44-42, and the Yellow Jackets have covered three of the last four meetings. Tech is coming off a loss to Pittsburgh but has been competitive all season. Kirby Smart's Bulldogs are heavy favorites but haven't been dominant against the spread when laying big numbers.

Georgia Tech Ready to Compete

Georgia Tech has something to prove after their upset loss, and Brent Key has built a program that won't back down from the Bulldogs. The implied score of Georgia 37, Georgia Tech 23 suggests a comfortable Bulldog victory, but rivalry games rarely follow scripts. Georgia's 1-3 ATS record when favored by 13.5+ this season is concerning. The over has hit in four of the last six meetings between these teams.

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#2 Indiana @ Purdue

Can Indiana complete the unthinkable? The No. 2 Hoosiers (11-0) are one win away from their first undefeated regular season since 1945. Indiana has been dominant all season with 476 points scored (43.3 PPG, 2nd nationally) and just 128 points allowed (11.6 PPG, 2nd nationally).

Fernando Mendoza's Spectacular Season

QB Fernando Mendoza has been spectacular with 2,641 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and just 5 interceptions on 73% completion and an elite 88.8 QBR (4th nationally). He leads the nation in passing touchdowns with 30. Against then-No. 9 Illinois, he threw for 5 TDs and 267 yards on 21-of-23 passing (91.3%). This is Indiana's highest AP ranking (#2) in program history, with road wins at Oregon (first over a top-5 team) and Penn State (first ever at Happy Valley). Curt Cignetti signed an 8-year, $93.25 million extension.

Purdue's Struggle

Purdue (4-7) has lost 17 consecutive Big Ten games - the longest active conference losing streak. These teams last met with Indiana winning 66-0, so the 28.5-point spread isn't crazy. If Indiana and Ohio State both win, they'll meet as undefeated teams in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis - a scenario nobody predicted in August.

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#3 Texas A&M @ #16 Texas (Lone Star Showdown)

The Lone Star Showdown returns to Austin for the first time since 2010 with enormous stakes. No. 3 Texas A&M (11-0) has their historic undefeated season on the line against No. 16 Texas (8-3). The Aggies haven't started 11-0 since 1992, and Mike Elko has this team playing championship-caliber football.

Marcel Reed's Heisman Run

Heisman Trophy contender QB Marcel Reed has 2,752 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns (2nd in SEC), with a 14.6 yards-per-completion average leading the conference. Reed engineered one of the greatest comebacks in program history against South Carolina, throwing for a career-high 439 yards (316 in the second half) to erase a 27-point halftime deficit.

Path to the SEC Championship

Texas A&M's path to the SEC Championship Game goes through Austin. The Aggies have been one of the best over teams at 8-2 this season. Texas last hosted this game in 2010 but won 17-7 when the rivalry resumed last year at Kyle Field. Reed has five games this season with 250+ passing yards, showcasing his ability to beat teams through the air. This is the most significant game in the rivalry's recent history with Texas A&M seeking their first SEC Championship Game appearance.