MLB Picks & Analysis

Toronto Blue Jays @ Pittsburgh Pirates

Starting Pitchers: Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)

This is an absolutely electric pitching matchup. Kevin Gausman has been one of the best starters in baseball this season with a 2.95 FIP, and he's going against Paul Skenes, the Pirates' rookie sensation who's been virtually unhittable under the lights with a 1.99 ERA in night games. Two aces going head-to-head at PNC Park.

The Blue Jays have been rolling against sub-.500 teams at 40-22, and their offense has heated up with 4.8 runs per game over the last 15 games. Pittsburgh's bats have been cold though, managing just 3.4 runs per game with a weak .660 OPS against right-handed pitching. The Pirates are also a brutal 5-14 against AL East competition.

Toronto's bullpen (3.50 ERA) is significantly better than Pittsburgh's shaky pen (4.85 ERA), which could be the difference if this stays close late. The advanced metrics favor Toronto too - .328 xwOBA compared to Pittsburgh's .291. This has the makings of a low-scoring gem with two elite arms on the mound.

Offensive Trends (L15 Games)

Bullpen Analysis

Key Matchup Factors

Advanced Metrics

St. Louis Cardinals @ Miami Marlins

Starting Pitchers: Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Eury Perez (MIA)

Matthew Liberatore gets the ball for St. Louis in what should be a winnable spot against the rebuilding Marlins. Eury Perez showed flashes of brilliance early in his career, but he's still developing and Miami's offense provides zero support. This is a game where the Cardinals just need to be competent to come away with a win.

The dome at loanDepot park provides perfect conditions for pitching, but it won't matter much when one team simply can't score. Miami's lineup is among the worst in baseball, and the Cardinals have the more experienced arm on the mound. St. Louis should control this one from the early innings.

Houston Astros @ Detroit Tigers

Starting Pitchers: Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs Jack Flaherty (DET)

Jack Flaherty has been on a tear for the Tigers, and he gets a tough matchup against the always-dangerous Houston lineup. The Astros are never an easy out, but Spencer Arrighetti has shown he belongs in the big leagues. This is a quality interleague matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations.

Comerica Park plays fair in August, and with clear skies expected, conditions are perfect for baseball. Houston's deep lineup will test Flaherty, but Detroit's improved pitching staff has been competitive against anyone. Expect a well-pitched game with late-inning drama possible.

Seattle Mariners @ Philadelphia Phillies

Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Ranger Suárez (PHI)

Logan Gilbert brings his electric stuff to Citizens Bank Park, where he'll face a dangerous Phillies lineup in humid conditions that favor hitters. Ranger Suárez has been rock solid all year for Philadelphia, and the Phillies' home-field advantage is among the best in baseball.

The Mariners' pitching can keep them in any game, but their offense has been inconsistent. Philly's balanced attack will test Seattle's bullpen if this stays close. The wind blowing out and humidity suggest runs could be at a premium for anyone except the team with more firepower - that's Philly.

Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox

Starting Pitchers: Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs Dustin May (BOS)

AL East rivals meet at Fenway Park in what should be a competitive night. Trevor Rogers has found new life in Baltimore after struggling in Miami, and he'll need to be sharp against a Red Sox lineup that always plays well at home. Dustin May's return from injury has given Boston a boost in the rotation.

Fenway's quirks always play a role, especially with wind blowing out toward the Monster. Both teams have powerful lineups that can exploit the short porch in left. This has the feel of a high-scoring affair if either starter runs into trouble early. The Orioles have been the better team overall, but division games at Fenway are never easy.

Chicago White Sox @ Atlanta Braves

Starting Pitchers: Yordany Gomez (CHW) vs Spencer Strider (ATL)

Spencer Strider on the mound against the worst offense in baseball? This feels like a mismatch from the first pitch. Strider's devastating slider is going to give the White Sox fits all night, and Yordany Gomez doesn't have the stuff to keep up. Atlanta should control this from the opening frame.

The humid August heat at Truist Park won't help Chicago's cause - they're already struggling to generate any offense, and Strider feeds off energy. The Braves have been solid at home, and against a team as bad as the White Sox, this should be a comfortable night in Atlanta.

Texas Rangers @ Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers: Jack Leiter (TEX) vs Michael Wacha (KC)

Jack Leiter finally getting his chance in the Texas rotation, and he draws a manageable opponent in Kansas City. Michael Wacha has been steady for the Royals' surprising season, but he's not an ace. This could come down to which lineup gets to the opposing bullpen first.

Kauffman Stadium in August with the wind blowing out is a hitter's paradise. The humidity and heat will test both starters' stamina, and late-game fireworks are possible. Texas has the defending champion pedigree, but KC has been scrappy. Should be an entertaining Midwest summer night of baseball.

LA Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies

Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs Kyle Freeland (COL)

Yamamoto at Coors Field is the ultimate test for any pitcher. The Japanese import has been brilliant in his rookie MLB season, but even the best arms get touched at altitude. Kyle Freeland is a Denver native who's figured out how to survive in this environment, but the Dodgers' lineup is relentless.

LA's offense doesn't need help, but they'll take the Coors boost anyway. The Rockies simply don't have the pitching depth to hang with elite teams, and the Dodgers are as elite as it gets. Clear skies and mild temperatures at elevation mean the ball will carry - this has crooked numbers written all over it.

Cincinnati Reds @ LA Angels

Starting Pitchers: Brady Singer (CIN) vs Victor Mederos (LAA)

Brady Singer heads to the West Coast where he'll face an Angels team still trying to figure out life in the post-Ohtani/Trout era. Victor Mederos is a young arm trying to prove he belongs, but the Reds have one of the more explosive lineups in the NL when healthy.

Angel Stadium in August is pleasant, and the evening conditions should be perfect for baseball. Cincinnati's bats have been hot, and they're facing a pitching staff that's been inconsistent at best. The Reds should find success here if Singer keeps things close early.

Cleveland Guardians @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Starting Pitchers: Gavin Williams (CLE) vs Zac Gallen (AZ)

Zac Gallen is one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, and he draws a tough Cleveland team that's been grinding wins all season. Gavin Williams has electric stuff for the Guardians, making this one of the better pitching matchups of the night slate.

Chase Field's controlled environment takes weather out of the equation, but it can't neutralize these two arms. Cleveland's grinding, contact-oriented approach might frustrate Gallen, but Arizona's lineup has enough pop to break through against anyone. This one could go either way and stay tight until the late innings.

San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres

Starting Pitchers: Robbie Ray (SF) vs Nestor Cortes (SD)

NL West rivals meet at Petco Park in what should be a tightly-contested battle. Robbie Ray is trying to recapture his Cy Young form for the Giants, while Nestor Cortes brings his funky delivery and deceptive stuff for San Diego. Both pitchers can dominate when they're on.

Petco Park suppresses offense, and with the marine layer rolling in, runs could be hard to come by. The Padres have the more explosive lineup, but San Francisco's pitching-first approach keeps them competitive. Expect a pitcher's duel in perfect conditions for low-scoring baseball.