The importance of utilizing smart bankroll management can’t be overstated. Whether you’re a new bettor or a seasoned pro, your ability to withstand short-term variance while staying alive for the long game is everything.
Let’s be real: even the sharpest bettors in the world go through rough stretches. You might lose six, seven, even ten bets in a row. That’s not a reflection of your strategy failing — it’s just variance doing what it does. Even legends like Billy Walters have had losing months. What separates the winners from the losers over time isn’t avoiding losses — it’s managing your bankroll so you’re still standing when the tide turns.
We scale our bet sizes based on our perceived edge — using a strict, model-driven approach. Here's how we assign units:
| Edge % | Units |
|---|---|
| Under 2.0% | 0 (Pass) |
| 2.0% – 3.9% | 1 unit |
| 4.0% – 5.9% | 2 units |
| 6.0% or higher | 3 units |
This keeps us disciplined. No chasing. No gut plays. No ego. Just math.
Edge is calculated by comparing our model’s win probability on a game to the market’s implied probability. We pass on small edges and increase our bet size as the edge grows — this isn’t gambling. This is calculated investing.
If you want to win in this game long-term, you have to approach it with patience, precision, and perspective. It’s a grind — but a beatable one. That’s why we use this system. It allows us to stay consistent, avoid emotional swings, and capitalize when our edge is real.
Staying in the game is the only way to win it. Bet smart, stay disciplined, and trust the math.