See exactly what happens to your bankroll over 5, 10, or 20 years. Watch compounding turn small edges into life-changing returns.
How Compounding Works in Betting
When you bet a percentage of your bankroll instead of a flat amount, your bet sizes grow as you win. A 55% bettor at -110 has about a 2.3% edge per bet. That might seem small, but over 500 bets per year for 10 years, compounding turns $1,000 into potentially $50,000+ (expected value). This simulator runs 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations to show you realistic outcomes including variance.
52.4% = breakeven at -110
1-3% recommended
Run the simulation to see projected outcomes.
Most bettors think about betting in terms of individual wins and losses. They see 55% as "barely better than a coin flip." What they're missing is the compounding effect over thousands of bets.
Here's the math that changes everything: If you bet 2% of your bankroll per bet with a 55% win rate at -110 odds, your expected growth per bet is about 0.046%. That seems tiny. But over 500 bets per year, that compounds to roughly 26% annual return. Over 10 years? Your $1,000 becomes $10,000+ on average.
Edge per bet: ~2.3%
Expected growth per bet: ~0.046% of bankroll
Bets per year (10/week): 520
Expected annual growth: ~27%
$1,000 after 5 years: ~$3,300 (median)
$1,000 after 10 years: ~$11,000 (median)
Note: These are median outcomes. Due to variance, your actual results could be significantly higher or lower.
The simulator assumes you bet a percentage of your current bankroll, not a fixed dollar amount. This is critical for two reasons:
The chart shows not just expected outcomes, but the range of possible outcomes. Even with a real edge, some unlucky bettors will be down after a year. Some lucky ones will be up 5x. This variance is built into the math, and you need to be mentally prepared for it.
The simulation runs 1,000 separate paths, each using random outcomes based on your win probability. The "Expected" line shows the median outcome (50th percentile). The "Best 10%" shows where the luckiest 10% ended up. The "Worst 10%" shows the unluckiest.
Try This: Run the simulation with different bet sizes (1%, 2%, 5%). Notice how higher bet sizes increase the spread between best and worst outcomes. This is the risk-reward tradeoff in action.
Before you get too excited about the projected returns, here are some reality checks:
Most bettors overestimate their win rate. You need 1,000+ tracked bets to have a reliable estimate. If you think you're at 55% but you're actually at 52%, your projections are way off. Always use conservative estimates.
As you bet larger amounts, you may move lines against yourself, get limited by sportsbooks, or find it harder to get down on good lines. The simulation assumes constant edge, which may not hold at scale.
The simulation assumes perfect discipline. It assumes you never chase losses, never overbet on "locks," and always stick to your percentage-based system. In reality, emotional decisions destroy more bankrolls than bad handicapping.
Depending on your jurisdiction, you may owe taxes on gambling winnings. This isn't factored into the simulation. Consult a tax professional.
Important: This simulator shows what's mathematically possible with a consistent edge. It does not guarantee results. Past performance and simulated outcomes are not guarantees of future results. Only bet what you can afford to lose.
The Kelly Criterion suggests betting a percentage equal to your edge divided by the odds. For 55% at -110, full Kelly is about 4.6%. But most pros use half or quarter Kelly to reduce variance. A 1-2% bet size offers a good balance of growth and stability.
More bets = faster compounding (assuming you maintain your edge). If you can find 20 good bets per week instead of 10, your expected returns roughly double. But quality matters more than quantity. Never force bad bets just to increase volume.
Notice how the curves accelerate over time. Years 1-2 show modest growth. Years 8-10 show explosive growth. This is compounding in action. The bettors who win big are the ones who stay disciplined for years, not months.