Picks & Analysis

May 21, 2025

Posted at 11:05 PM PT

Pick 1 – MLB: Astros vs. Rays Under 9 (-120)

Pick 2 – NHL: Stars Team Total Under 3.5 (-150)

Pick 3 – MLB: Giants ML (-200)

Pick 4 – MLB: Royals Team Total Under 3.5 (-115)

Why we like these:

Let’s start in Tampa. Hunter Brown is dealing — flat out. His surface-level ERA of 1.43 is already elite, but it’s the underlying numbers that really tell the story: 2.71 xERA, 89th percentile in barrel rate, and he's limiting hard contact better than almost any pitcher in baseball. Pair that with a Houston bullpen that leads the majors with a 2.64 ERA, and you've got a setup where Tampa’s already shaky lineup is going to have trouble putting up more than 3 or 4 runs.

Let’s talk Giants. I know this team better than anyone — and this is a prime spot. Logan Webb at home is as good as it gets. He’s rocking a 0.64 ERA at Oracle Park this year, and when he’s on the mound, the team feeds off it. His command, his sinker, the rhythm he brings — it just works. He’s not just an ace, he’s our identity.

Daniel Lynch starts for KC and honestly, I don’t get the hype. He hasn’t started a single game this year and the last time he faced the Giants he got smacked around, recorded one out, and left the game. The guy’s been pitching in relief — and now he's supposed to stretch out as a starter in San Francisco? Against a team that’s 17–8 at home? Nah.

The Royals lineup is ice cold. Outside of Bobby Witt Jr., there’s just no real threat. They’re scoring barely 3.3 runs a game on the season, and they’ve been held under 4 runs in 42 of their 50 games. Against Webb, that’s not a team I’m afraid of — that’s a team I’m fading hard.

These are both high-confidence spots for me. Giants ML is a play I’d make every time Webb pitches at home against a weak opponent, and the Royals TT under is just math. They’re not scoring 4 off Webb and this bullpen. Let’s ride.

On the flip side, Taj Bradley isn’t perfect — his ERA is inflated — but he’s shown flashes, especially when locating his fastball. Houston’s offense has also been wildly inconsistent. They’re bottom-third in the league in runs per game on the road (just 3.57) and have been especially flat early in day games. This sets up beautifully for a tight, slow-paced matchup.

Our model simulates this game finishing around 4.2 to 3.1, putting the total at roughly 7.3 runs. The posted line of 9 gives us value. At -120, the implied probability is 54.5%. Our model gives the Under a 61.8% chance of hitting. That’s a clear edge of +7.3%, and that’s exactly the kind of bet we look for — mathematically sound, fundamentally supported.

Now let’s talk hockey — and let’s get precise. This is one of those plays that casual bettors might miss. Everyone sees the total at 6 and thinks full game under, but the sharper move is to isolate Dallas’ scoring specifically. The Stars have scored more than 3 goals in just 2 of their last 9 playoff games. They rely heavily on tight puck control and structured defense, not volume offense. Against most teams, that’s fine. But not tonight.

Edmonton is coming off back-to-back shutouts. Stuart Skinner is locked in with a .935 SV% this month and has gotten much better at controlling rebounds and sealing off the post. Our xG model gives Dallas just 2.97 expected goals in this matchup — and that’s a generous projection.

At -150, the Stars team total under 3.5 needs to cash 60% of the time to break even. We make it 67.4% based on sim data, form, and opponent context. That gives us an edge of +7.4% — not massive, but definitely enough to fire.

These are the types of plays that don’t just come from vibe-checking the board. These come from digging deep — from models, matchup data, and recognizing inefficiencies in lines the public might not be seeing. Let’s keep pushing edges and stacking value.