The San Francisco Giants look like a sharp play Tuesday night as they host the Cleveland Guardians at Oracle Park. San Francisco has been solid at home all season (22–11) and will have the left-handed veteran Robbie Ray on the mound. Ray has been exceptional in 2025, coming into this start with a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 13 starts. At home, he's been even more dominant, sporting a 2.18 ERA and holding opponents to a .194 average while striking out over 30% of batters faced.
His counterpart, Slade Cecconi, has had an inconsistent season for the Guardians. He enters with a 4.32 ERA and has struggled on the road, posting a 5.12 ERA in away games. Cecconi has allowed at least four runs in three of his last five starts and faces a Giants lineup that’s been heating up — San Francisco is hitting .281 as a team over their last 10 games and averaging 5.4 runs per game during that stretch.
The Guardians are trending in the opposite direction. Cleveland has dropped 8 of its last 10 games and is hitting just .218 as a team during that span. Their road record sits at 16–20, and they’ve particularly struggled against lefties, posting just a .228 average in those matchups. The Giants, by comparison, are 22–11 at home and have gone 7–3 over their last 10 games.
San Francisco also holds the edge in bullpen performance. The Giants' bullpen ranks 6th in MLB with a 3.11 ERA, while Cleveland ranks 19th with a 3.97 ERA. San Francisco is also 8–2 in Ray’s last 10 starts at home, and his pitch mix — particularly his slider — has been generating a 30% whiff rate this season.
With the line currently sitting at –153, this looks like a strong value play on a team with the better pitcher, the hotter offense, and a significant home-field advantage. San Francisco has been reliable all year at Oracle Park, and given the Guardians' recent cold streak, this is a favorable matchup across the board for the Giants.
Monday’s slate features two spots we like on the moneyline — one in Seattle, one in D.C. With trustworthy arms on the hill, home field edges, and clear trends on our side, here’s why both the Mariners and Nationals are worth riding today.
In Seattle, Logan Gilbert returns to the mound for the Mariners after a minor IL stint, and he’s been nothing short of dominant when healthy. Gilbert comes into this start with a 2.37 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 44 strikeouts in just 30.1 innings. His advanced metrics are elite: a 16.3% swinging-strike rate and an xFIP of 2.91 suggest his performance is completely sustainable. He’s held opposing hitters to a .174 average and hasn’t allowed a single home run yet this year. Against right-handed lineups like Boston’s, his splitter and slider combo have been lethal.
Across from him is Lucas Giolito, who’s been extremely shaky in 2025. The Red Sox right-hander is sporting a 5.45 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, and has surrendered 8 home runs in just 36 innings. His hard-hit rate allowed is over 43%, and opponents are slugging .506 against him. In Giolito’s last four starts, Boston is 0–4, and he hasn’t pitched beyond the 5th inning in any of them. His fastball velocity is down 1.8 MPH from his 2021 peak, and command has been erratic.
The Mariners, meanwhile, are rolling. They’ve gone 12–3 in their last 15 home games and have covered the run line in 8 of those wins. Seattle’s offense has woken up thanks to Julio Rodríguez batting .367 over the past two weeks with a .982 OPS in June. Cal Raleigh leads the team with 14 home runs and continues to draw walks at a career-high 13.2% clip. The Mariners rank top-five in team ERA (3.47) and WHIP (1.17), while Boston ranks bottom-eight in bullpen ERA (4.81) and defensive efficiency.
This is a clear pitching mismatch, and Seattle’s home advantage at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park seals it. Gilbert has allowed 0 runs in 11 straight innings at home, and Boston’s road OPS drops nearly 50 points compared to Fenway. It’s a strong spot to back the better team with the better arm.
Our first play: Mariners ML –165
Now let’s head east. In Washington, the Nationals will host the Rockies in what feels like a sneaky sharp spot. Jake Irvin takes the ball for the Nats, and while he isn’t a household name, he’s been incredibly steady. Irvin carries a 4.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 83.1 innings, but he’s been even better at home — a 3.46 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in Nationals Park. Over his last three starts, Irvin has pitched 18.1 innings with just 3 earned runs, 17 strikeouts, and only 1 home run allowed.
He faces a Colorado lineup that’s been historically bad on the road. The Rockies are 7–28 away from Coors Field this year and have averaged just 2.9 runs per game in those contests. They strike out at the 4th-highest rate in the majors on the road and have a combined OPS of .620 when batting away from home — dead last in baseball. Rookie lefty Carson Palmquist starts for Colorado, and it’s been a rough debut campaign: 7.77 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, and a 13.4% walk rate. Palmquist hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in any of his five starts, and opponents are batting .321 off him.
Offensively, the Nationals are finding rhythm. CJ Abrams has a .318 average and 4 steals over his last 10 games, and Lane Thomas has driven in 9 runs in the same stretch. Washington has also quietly improved its bullpen — their relievers have a 3.71 ERA over the last 30 days, compared to 5.91 for Colorado’s. Defensively, the Rockies rank dead last in fielding percentage and have committed 54 errors, including 12 in their last 10 games.
Washington is 5–2 in their last 7 home games, and the Nationals have held opponents to 3 runs or fewer in five straight. Colorado is just 2–12 in their last 14 road games. This is a setup where fading the Rockies continues to be profitable.
Our second play: Nationals ML –166
To recap: We’re taking two favorites with better starters, more complete bullpens, and meaningful trend support. Neither price is cheap, but both are playable straight or in a small two-leg parlay. Let’s stay hot and keep building.
The Legend Pro model is backing the Tampa Bay Rays on June 16, and it’s not hard to see why. Ryan Pepiot has quietly emerged as one of the more reliable arms in the Rays' rotation, and his recent stretch has been impressive. Over his last five starts, Pepiot has a 2.30 ERA and a WHIP under 1.00. He’s punched out 17 batters in his last two outings alone and continues to generate elite swing-and-miss stuff—posting a 13.3% swinging strike rate on the season.
The Rays have quietly put together a strong resume at Tropicana Field, going 23-20 at home and 39-32 overall. Their offense has been average overall, but they’ve excelled in situational hitting—batting .273 with runners in scoring position over their last 10 games. Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena have started to heat up in June, giving the middle of the order some much-needed pop.
The Orioles will counter with Zach Eflin, who looked sharp in his last start (5 IP, 1 ER vs Detroit), but his overall form has been shaky. Over his last five outings, Eflin holds a 4.80 ERA and is giving up more hard contact than usual, including six home runs over that span. He’s also been far less effective on the road, with a 5.26 ERA in away games compared to 3.10 at home.
A key factor in this matchup is bullpen performance. The Rays' bullpen continues to be a bright spot with a 3.40 ERA—5th-best in the AL—and has allowed just two runs over its last 15 innings. Baltimore, by contrast, ranks in the bottom third with a 4.86 bullpen ERA and has blown three leads in the past week alone. If this game is close late, the edge goes to Tampa.
Defensively, Tampa Bay also grades out stronger, ranking 6th in defensive runs saved (DRS), while Baltimore sits middle of the pack. These small edges across the board—home field, bullpen, starter form, and defensive consistency—add up to a solid spot for the Rays.
Final pick: Rays ML -120
Tonight, the BetLegend model is firing on a sharp edge in the late game between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers. The official pick: Dodgers Team Total Under 5 runs (-148).
While the Dodgers’ offense is one of the most dangerous in baseball, tonight’s setup has red flags. Our model has strong confidence in Giants lefty Kyle Harrison, who continues to trend upward with his swing-and-miss metrics. Over his last three starts, Harrison has posted a 3.60 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and has held opponents to just a .222 batting average. He’s also shown improvement the second and third time through the order, a weakness early in the season that’s since stabilized.
The Dodgers will send out Dustin May, but this bet hinges on the run production side. Our model simulates this game with L.A. scoring an average of 4.4 runs—over 10,000 sims—with 58% of outcomes landing at 4 or fewer runs. This presents solid value on the Under 5 line, even at the juiced price of -148.
San Francisco’s bullpen ranks top 10 in xFIP and has quietly become one of the most underrated relief corps in the National League. With the Giants expected to go lefty-heavy and play matchup ball in the later innings, the Dodgers may not have their usual late-inning surge opportunities.
Weather also leans to the Under, with mild 65-degree conditions and a pitcher-friendly marine layer at Dodger Stadium.
The pick: Dodgers Team Total Under 5 runs (-148)
Today’s second official BetLegend model pick is a runline play: Giants +1.5 (-127) on the road against the Dodgers. This is a high-value position backed by current pitcher form, team trends, and key statistical indicators that suggest this game will likely be tight — with serious potential for a one-run final.
The Giants hand the ball to young lefty Kyle Harrison, who has been holding his own in his first full MLB season. Harrison enters today with a 4.56 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 23.2 innings. But under the hood, there’s more to like. In his last two starts, Harrison has gone 6 and 5.1 innings respectively, giving up only 2 runs combined while striking out 12 and walking just 2. He’s also held hitters to a .225 average over his last 3 outings and is showing improving command with each appearance.
On the other side is Dustin May, a talented but inconsistent right-hander who has struggled with efficiency and command since returning from Tommy John surgery. On the year, May holds a 4.46 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over 66.2 innings. He’s averaging under 5.2 innings per start and has allowed 3 or more earned runs in 4 of his last 6 appearances. May’s expected ERA (xERA) is slightly higher than his actual at 4.71, suggesting he’s overperforming a bit. Opposing hitters are slugging .423 against him this season, with a hard-hit rate near 39%.
Team-wise, the Dodgers are clearly dangerous — but they've struggled to cover runlines as favorites. Over their last 20 games, the Dodgers are just 7–13 ATS (against the spread), meaning they're failing to win by more than one run in most of their victories. Meanwhile, the Giants are 11–5 ATS in their last 16 as underdogs of +1.5, frequently keeping games within one run or winning outright.
Statistically, the Giants’ bullpen is also underrated. Since June 1st, they’ve posted a 3.72 ERA and held opposing batters to a .211 average, while the Dodgers’ bullpen in that same span has a 4.41 ERA and has been vulnerable in late innings. If this game comes down to the final 3 frames, the edge may quietly lean toward San Francisco.
From a modeling standpoint, BetLegend projects this game as a 52.4% probability to finish within one run. With May’s volatility, Harrison’s rising form, and both teams carrying above-average bullpens, we see this as a prototypical one-run game. And at -127, the value on the +1.5 runline clears our threshold.
Also worth noting: the Giants are 6–2 in their last 8 road games decided by one run. They tend to grind out close games, and Harrison gives them a legit shot to stay in it early — especially against a Dodgers team that has a .234 average vs left-handed pitching this month.
This is a smart, disciplined play. The Giants don’t need to win — just keep it close — and the matchup suggests they’re more than capable of doing exactly that.
Final pick: Giants +1.5 (-127) Backed by the BetLegend Model
Today’s BetLegend model play comes in the form of the Kansas City Royals at -148 on the moneyline as they take on the Oakland Athletics. This isn’t just a gut call — it’s a calculated strike based on starting pitching advantage, Statcast metrics, and bullpen freshness. We project value here, and the model confirms the Royals as a profitable edge in today’s slate.
The Royals will hand the ball to left-hander Noah Cameron, who enters the game with a dominant 2.17 ERA and 0.88 WHIP over 37.1 innings. In six starts this season, Cameron has delivered five quality starts, allowing no more than one earned run in four of those outings. Opponents are hitting just .165 against him, and his K/BB ratio stands at a healthy 25:11. He’s doing it with excellent command, weak contact, and strong early-inning efficiency.
Cameron’s Statcast profile backs up the surface numbers. Through his first month of MLB action, he's allowing just a .230 wOBA and a .298 xwOBA, with hitters averaging under 86 mph on exit velocity against him. His chase rate and whiff percentage both rank in the top 20% of qualified starters this month. This isn’t a smoke-and-mirrors start — the underlying data confirms he’s the real deal.
On the mound for Oakland is lefty Jeffrey Springs, who’s been inconsistent throughout 2025. His current line sits at 5–5, 4.64 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, with 64 strikeouts in 73.2 innings. Unlike Cameron, Springs is allowing more traffic and has been tagged for four or more earned runs in 3 of his last 6 starts. Statcast reflects some concern: Springs owns a .328 xwOBA and an 88.2 mph average exit velocity, with a hard-hit rate of over 36%.
From a lineup perspective, the Royals match up well. Kansas City has quietly been a top-10 offense this month when facing left-handed pitching, producing consistent contact and ranking 12th in MLB in OPS vs LHP. Key bats like Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino have all posted above-average wRC+ numbers in June, giving Cameron solid run support behind him.
Meanwhile, the Athletics have been struggling at the plate. Over their last 10 games, Oakland has averaged just 2.8 runs per contest and ranks near the bottom of the league in batting average, OBP, and slugging. They’re also 2–8 in their last 10 games against left-handed starters, struggling with timing and strike zone discipline.
The bullpen edge also goes to Kansas City. Royals relievers enter the game with a combined 3.75 ERA on the season compared to Oakland’s 4.92. Cameron’s ability to go six strong innings, combined with a rested back-end featuring James McArthur and Chris Stratton, gives KC a late-game cushion.
The BetLegend model gives the Royals a projected win probability of 59.6% in this game, implying value against the listed odds of -148 (which suggest only a 59.6% breakeven). Even with a slight edge, the combination of matchup advantages and consistency makes this a validated model pick.
Final Pick: Royals -148 Backed by the BetLegend Model
The Royals and Athletics face off today, and after digging into the numbers, I’m leaning toward the Royals on the moneyline at –152. Let me break down why this feels like a solid call.
Michael Wacha takes the mound for the Royals, and he’s been pitching some of his best ball lately. His 3.01 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 74 innings show he’s keeping hitters off balance and limiting baserunners. Plus, Wacha’s comfort pitching at home in Kauffman Stadium is a big plus.
On the other side, Luis Severino for the Athletics has had a tough go this year. His ERA is sitting at 4.77 with a 1.33 WHIP, and he’s been giving up more walks and home runs than you’d like. That’s definitely something the Royals offense can exploit.
The Royals’ record of 34–35 isn’t flashy, but compared to Oakland’s 26–44, they’re clearly the better team right now. The Athletics’ offense has struggled to produce consistent runs, while the Royals’ pitching staff, especially Wacha, has done a solid job keeping games close.
Taking all of that into account, the Royals on the moneyline at –152 looks like the smart play here. They’ve got the pitching edge, the better recent form, and home field advantage. I’m confident they’ll come through in this one.
Final Pick: Kansas City Royals Moneyline (–152)