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NBA Favorites and Underdogs Against the Spread
How NBA favorites and underdogs have done against the closing spread since 2016-17, by the size of the spread. Favorites covered 49.7% of the time and won outright 67.8% of the time.
Updated October 1, 2026. Regular season only, games with a pick em spread left out.
NBA favorites and underdogs by spread, 2016-17 to 2025-26
| Favorite by | Games | Favorite record | Favorite win % | Favorite ATS | Favorite cover % | Underdog ATS | Underdog cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3.5 | 3750 | 2063-1687 | 55.0% | 1845-1870-35 | 49.7% | 1870-1845-35 | 50.3% |
| 4 to 6.5 | 3484 | 2283-1201 | 65.5% | 1722-1710-52 | 50.2% | 1710-1722-52 | 49.8% |
| 7 to 9.5 | 2405 | 1812-593 | 75.3% | 1179-1195-31 | 49.7% | 1195-1179-31 | 50.3% |
| 10 to 12.5 | 1422 | 1153-269 | 81.1% | 668-740-14 | 47.4% | 740-668-14 | 52.6% |
| 13 or more | 798 | 727-71 | 91.1% | 414-377-7 | 52.3% | 377-414-7 | 47.7% |
| All favorites | 11859 | 8038-3821 | 67.8% | 5828-5892-139 | 49.7% | 5892-5828-139 | 50.3% |
Home and road favorites
| Favorite by | Games | Favorite record | Favorite win % | Favorite ATS | Favorite cover % | Underdog ATS | Underdog cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites | 7528 | 5191-2337 | 69.0% | 3690-3750-88 | 49.6% | 3750-3690-88 | 50.4% |
| Road favorites | 4331 | 2847-1484 | 65.7% | 2138-2142-51 | 50.0% | 2142-2138-51 | 50.0% |
2025-26 by spread
| Favorite by | Games | Favorite record | Favorite win % | Favorite ATS | Favorite cover % | Underdog ATS | Underdog cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 to 3.5 | 375 | 200-175 | 53.3% | 175-200 | 46.7% | 200-175 | 53.3% |
| 4 to 6.5 | 300 | 199-101 | 66.3% | 155-145 | 51.7% | 145-155 | 48.3% |
| 7 to 9.5 | 232 | 182-50 | 78.4% | 114-118 | 49.1% | 118-114 | 50.9% |
| 10 to 12.5 | 156 | 117-39 | 75.0% | 71-85 | 45.5% | 85-71 | 54.5% |
| 13 or more | 163 | 151-12 | 92.6% | 91-72 | 55.8% | 72-91 | 44.2% |
| All favorites | 1226 | 849-377 | 69.2% | 606-620 | 49.4% | 620-606 | 50.6% |
Favorites by season
| Season | Favorites SU | Win % | Favorites ATS | Cover % | Favorites of 10+ ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 849-377 | 69.2% | 606-620-0 | 49.4% | 162-157-0 | 50.8% |
| 2024-25 | 848-370 | 69.6% | 611-607-0 | 50.2% | 157-126-0 | 55.5% |
| 2023-24 | 844-386 | 68.6% | 607-623-0 | 49.3% | 125-145-0 | 46.3% |
| 2022-23 | 805-419 | 65.8% | 601-609-14 | 49.7% | 80-85-4 | 48.5% |
| 2021-22 | 822-391 | 67.8% | 598-593-22 | 50.2% | 100-110-4 | 47.6% |
| 2020-21 | 709-362 | 66.2% | 540-518-13 | 51.0% | 80-69-0 | 53.7% |
| 2019-20 | 694-346 | 66.7% | 495-518-27 | 48.9% | 74-97-3 | 43.3% |
| 2018-19 | 824-388 | 68.0% | 603-595-14 | 50.3% | 117-108-1 | 52.0% |
| 2017-18 | 836-384 | 68.5% | 583-605-32 | 49.1% | 87-106-7 | 45.1% |
| 2016-17 | 807-398 | 67.0% | 584-604-17 | 49.2% | 100-114-2 | 46.7% |
Methodology
Final scores and closing lines for every regular season game since 2016-17 come from the Bet Legend game database, and every game is checked against ESPN's official final score; play in, playoff and NBA Cup championship games are excluded (the Cup final does not count in the standings). A team covers when its final margin plus its closing spread is above zero, and an exact landing is a push. Moneyline units risk 1 unit at the closing price. ATS units, where shown, use the sportsbook closing spread and price that ESPN publishes (DraftKings or ESPN BET); from 2024-25 on that close is also the spread used for the ATS record. A back to back is a game played the day after the team's previous game. These are market results, not BetLegend picks; our own picks are on the NBA betting record page.
FAQ
How often do NBA favorites cover the spread?
Since 2016-17, favorites covered 49.7% of regular season games (5828-5892-139) against the closing spread.
Do big NBA favorites cover?
Favorites of 10 or more points went 1082-1117-21 ATS (49.2%) and won 84.7% of those games outright.
How often do NBA favorites win outright?
67.8% of the time since 2016-17 (8038-3821); see the table for each spread size.
Where do these spreads come from?
The closing spread in the Bet Legend game database, and from 2024-25 on the sportsbook close that ESPN publishes, because the database's own spreads for those seasons were unreliable.