Pacers @ Celtics

Monday, December 22, 7:30 PM ET | TD Garden
Line: BOS -10.5 | O/U: 224.5 | BOS: 17-11 | IND: 6-22

This is a rematch with very different circumstances. The Pacers pushed the Celtics to seven games in the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals, but with Tyrese Haliburton out with an Achilles injury, Indiana has fallen apart. At 6-22, they're one of the worst teams in the league, and nothing suggests they can hang with Boston on the road.

The Celtics still have Jaylen Brown playing at an All-NBA level, and their defensive identity remains intact even without Jayson Tatum (Achilles). Boston's depth is carrying them through, and they've been dominant at TD Garden. The 10.5-point spread looks steep, but Indiana can't score without Haliburton orchestrating, and they definitely can't stop Boston's offensive machine. This should be a comfortable Celtics win.

Mavericks @ Pelicans

Monday, December 22, 8:00 PM ET | Smoothie King Center
Line: NO -1.5 | O/U: 237.5 | NO: 7-22 | DAL: 11-18

Two teams going in opposite directions from preseason expectations. Dallas at 11-18 has been a disappointment despite Luka Doncic doing everything humanly possible. The Mavs' supporting cast has struggled, and their defense has been porous. New Orleans at 7-22 has been ravaged by injuries to Zion Williamson, and the whole season has felt like a lost cause.

Here's the thing though - the Pelicans are actually 1.5-point favorites at home. That tells you something about how the market views this Dallas team on the road. Luka will get his numbers, but can the Mavs actually close out games against even mediocre competition? I don't trust either team here, which makes this feel like a stay-away. If forced, The points are worth watching with Dallas simply because Luka is that good.

Jazz @ Nuggets

Monday, December 22, 9:00 PM ET | Ball Arena
Line: DEN -14.5 | O/U: 246.5 | DEN: 20-7 | UTAH: 10-17

Denver at 20-7 is rolling, and Nikola Jokic is doing Nikola Jokic things - triple-doubles, incredible passing, making everyone around him better. The Nuggets have figured things out after a slow start and look like legitimate title contenders again. Utah at 10-17 is in full rebuild mode, playing young players and not really trying to win games.

The altitude advantage at Ball Arena is real, and the Jazz have struggled mightily on the road. Denver's home dominance has been a theme all season. The 14.5-point spread is massive, but the Nuggets have covered big numbers before when they're locked in. Lauri Markkanen is Utah's only real threat, and containing him should be manageable for Denver's defense. I expect a blowout.

Grizzlies @ Thunder

Monday, December 22, 9:30 PM ET | Paycom Center
Line: OKC -16.5 | O/U: 228.5 | OKC: 25-3 | MEM: 13-15

The reigning NBA champions are absolutely ROLLING. Oklahoma City at 25-3 is the best team in basketball right now, and it's not particularly close. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP level, Chet Holmgren is a defensive monster, and their depth is ridiculous. They've won 14 straight and show no signs of slowing down.

Memphis at 13-15 has been up and down, with Ja Morant dealing with his usual injury concerns. When the Grizzlies are healthy and locked in, they can compete with anyone. But competing with this Thunder team at home? That's a tall order. The 16.5-point spread is enormous, but OKC has been covering big numbers all season. They're simply on another level. I wouldn't be surprised if this turns into a 25-point blowout.

Magic @ Warriors

Monday, December 22, 10:00 PM ET | Chase Center
Line: GS -3.5 | O/U: 218.5 | GS: 14-15 | ORL: 16-12

The late game of the night features an interesting matchup between two teams with playoff aspirations. Golden State at 14-15 has been inconsistent, but Stephen Curry is still Stephen Curry, and they're dangerous at Chase Center. Orlando at 16-12 has been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, with Paolo Banchero emerging as a legitimate star.

The Magic's defense is for real - they're long, athletic, and make life difficult for opposing offenses. But the Warriors' experience and home court advantage should be the difference here. Curry tends to show out in nationally televised late games, and this has that feel. The 3.5-point spread seems about right. This should be a competitive game, but I lean Golden State at home simply because of who they have running the point.