Florida State @ #12 North Carolina

Tuesday, 7:00 PM ET | Dean E. Smith Center | ESPN2
Line: UNC -14.5 | O/U: 161.5 | FSU: 7-6 | UNC: 12-1

The ACC opener for North Carolina is finally here, and the Tar Heels couldn't ask for a better spot. The 12-1 Heels are a dominant 9-0 at the Smith Center, where the atmosphere is electric and opponents wilt under the pressure. Hubert Davis has this team rolling - they're 9-1 in their last 10, averaging 78.8 points while holding opponents to just 62.4. The defense has been the story, ranking 16th nationally in points allowed (63.5).

Florida State is a mess at 7-6 and 0-2 on the road. The Seminoles are shooting just 41.1% from the field and have been outclassed against quality opponents all season. They've won 5-5 in their last 10, but those wins came against overmatched opponents. The step up in competition to Chapel Hill is going to be jarring.

The Dominance Factor

UNC leads the all-time series 57-16, including a ridiculous 24-4 record in Chapel Hill and 21-4 at the Smith Center specifically. The Tar Heels have won the last six meetings overall and the last eight in Chapel Hill. Florida State hasn't won in this building since 2019, and that's not changing tonight.

The 14.5-point spread is steep, but UNC has the defensive chops to back it up. They're forcing 9.7 turnovers per game and holding opponents to 36.2% shooting - that's 4th in Division I. Wilson leads the team with 10.8 rebounds per game, and the Heels will dominate the glass. Take North Carolina to cover - Florida State doesn't have the firepower to keep this close.

#7 Gonzaga @ San Diego

Tuesday, 9:30 PM ET | Jenny Craig Pavilion | ESPN+
Line: GONZ -29.5 | O/U: 162.5 | GONZ: 13-1 | USD: 6-7

No. 7 Gonzaga is looking to extend their 19-game win streak against San Diego to an even 20, and this one shouldn't be close. The Bulldogs opened WCC play with a 96-56 demolition of Pepperdine, and the machine is humming. Tyon Grant-Foster led with 18 points, while Braeden Smith added 15 points, 8 assists, and 5 rebounds. This is vintage Gonzaga basketball - deep, balanced, and relentless.

San Diego is 6-7 and sitting at 214th in KenPom - that's 10th out of 12 WCC teams. Steve Lavin's fourth year has been hampered by injuries, most notably to Kjay Bradley, last year's leading scorer. The Toreros beat UC San Diego but lost ugly games to Long Beach State and UC Riverside. They're simply not equipped to compete with elite programs.

Gonzaga's Dominance

The Bulldogs have a staggering 50-3 record against San Diego since 2000. Mark Few doesn't take his foot off the gas in conference play - Gonzaga needs to run up the score to maintain their positioning for NCAA Tournament seeding. They're averaging 86 points per game and shooting 52% from the field.

The spread opened at 27.5 and quickly moved to 29.5, which tells you everything you need to know about where the sharp money is going. Gonzaga will empty the bench by halftime and still cover. Take the Bulldogs - this is a WCC tune-up game, and Few's teams don't take nights off. Expect a 30+ point win.

New Hampshire @ Nebraska

Tuesday, 8:00 PM ET | Pinnacle Bank Arena | BTN
Line: NEB -30.5 | O/U: 144.5 | UNH: 4-8 | NEB: 12-0

Nebraska is UNDEFEATED. Yes, you read that correctly - the Cornhuskers are 12-0 and ranked in the top 25 for the first time in forever. Fred Hoiberg has completely transformed this program, and Pinnacle Bank Arena is rocking like it's football season. The Huskers are playing with swagger, shooting well, defending at an elite level, and taking care of the basketball.

New Hampshire is 4-8 and thoroughly overmatched. The Wildcats are an America East program that struggles against mid-major competition - facing a Big Ten team on the road is going to be brutal. They're averaging just 68 points per game and rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive efficiency.

Nebraska's Historic Run

This is the best start to a season in Nebraska basketball history. The Cornhuskers have legitimate Big Ten title aspirations, and games like this are about building confidence and staying sharp before conference play. Hoiberg's offense is humming, and the home crowd will be absolutely electric - they smell something special happening.

The 30.5-point spread is massive, but Nebraska has covered big numbers all season. They're not going to coast - this team wants to make a statement to the selection committee. Take the Huskers to cover and expect them to pour it on. Nebraska by 35+.

Louisville @ California

Tuesday, 10:00 PM ET | Haas Pavilion | ACC Network
Line: LOU -8.5 | O/U: 159.5 | LOU: 10-2 | CAL: 12-1

Here's a sneaky fascinating ACC matchup on the West Coast. Louisville is 10-2 and playing well under Pat Kelsey in his first year - the former Charleston coach has brought energy and organization to a program that desperately needed both. The Cardinals are athletic, they defend with intensity, and they don't beat themselves. This is a legitimate NCAA Tournament team.

California is having a renaissance in their first ACC season. The Golden Bears are 12-1 and have been one of the conference's pleasant surprises. Mark Madsen has this team buying in on defense, and the home crowd at Haas Pavilion has been rocking. But their schedule has been soft - Louisville represents a significant step up in competition.

The ACC Crossover

This is an intriguing spot for both teams. Louisville is laying 8.5 points on the road against a team with a better record. That tells you the market respects the Cardinals' talent advantage. Cal's 12-1 record looks great, but they haven't faced a team with Louisville's athleticism and defensive intensity.

I like Louisville here, but the spread is tricky. The Cardinals should win by 6-10 points, which means this could go either way against the number. Lean Louisville, but the Under might be the sharper play - both teams defend well and play at a controlled tempo. Look for a 75-68 type of final.