Today's NCAAB Games

The Dean Dome is absolutely cooking right now, and that 92% home win rate isn't some fluky number - it's UNC playing completely different basketball in Chapel Hill. Florida State walks into a buzzsaw here, coming off what's likely been a mediocre road stretch against a Tar Heels team that's barely lost at home.

Here's the thing about home cooking: it matters most when there's already a talent gap, and UNC at 12-1 versus FSU at 7-6 tells that story clearly. The Seminoles' 54% road record is decent but unremarkable, while North Carolina is nearly unstoppable on their home floor. That 38-point difference between home and away win rates for UNC screams legitimate home court advantage, not just schedule luck.

The crowd factor, referee tendencies, and pure comfort level all compound when you're already the better team. FSU needs everything to go right to stay within this number, and road teams rarely get those breaks in hostile environments.

**Lean: UNC -14.5** - the home cooking is real and this spread undervalues it.

That 30.5 number screams "books begging you to take the points." Nebraska's perfect at home, but perfect records in December mean jack when legs get heavy and minds wander.

Here's the trap: New Hampshire's got nothing to lose and Nebraska's already thinking about conference play. The Wildcats are road warriors by necessity - that 33% away record doesn't tell the effort story. Teams like this show up against ranked opponents because it's their Super Bowl.

But Nebraska's different this year. They're not just winning - they're suffocating teams at Pinnacle Bank. That home environment is legit, and Fred Hoiberg's got these guys buying into defensive identity. When you're 12-0, you don't coast against cupcakes - you make statements.

New Hampshire will scrap for 25 minutes, maybe even keep it interesting. Then talent takes over. Nebraska's depth wears them down, and the dam breaks late.

The line's actually light. Nebraska covers the 30.5 going away.

**LEAN: Nebraska -30.5**

Look, I'm seeing a lot of respect for Cal at 12-1, but Louisville getting 8.5 points here feels generous. The Cardinals have been road warriors this season at 83% away from home, and that's not by accident - they've got veteran guards who don't get rattled in hostile environments.

Cal's 92% home record looks impressive until you realize they've been feasting on cupcakes at Haas Pavilion. Their strength of schedule is suspect, and now they're getting their first real test against a Louisville team that's battle-tested from ACC play.

The Cardinals have been clicking offensively in recent weeks, and their defensive pressure creates chaos - exactly what you want when you're catching points on the road. Cal's had some comfortable wins lately, but comfort breeds complacency.

Here's the reality: Louisville has faced better competition all season long. When the lights get bright and the game tightens up in the second half, experience matters.

**Take: Louisville +8.5**

Look, that 28.5-point spread tells you everything - this isn't about style clash, it's about talent gap.

Gonzaga runs a beautiful offensive system that can score in bunches or grind you down methodically. They'll push pace when San Diego turns it over, then execute in the halfcourt when the Toreros try to slow it down. The Bulldogs adapt; lesser teams just react.

San Diego's 46% home win rate screams inconsistency. They'll try to muck this up, play physical, maybe catch Gonzaga sleepwalking early. Problem is, even a coasting Gonzaga team has more firepower than anything the Toreros have faced in conference play.

The total at 160.5 feels low for a Gonzaga team that can light you up from three levels. Sure, San Diego wants to grind, but when you're getting blown out by halftime, possessions naturally increase as you start fouling and pressing.

Gonzaga covers going away, and the over hits because garbage time becomes a shootaround.

**Take the over 160.5** - this gets ugly fast, then both benches start launching.