Today's NCAAB Games

The sharps are hammering UConn here, and I see exactly why. That 93% home win rate isn't just a pretty number – it's backed by elite defensive metrics that Marquette's struggling offense can't crack.

Here's what the public's missing: they see 19.5 points and think "too many." But Marquette's shooting 31% from three over their last five games while UConn's forcing turnovers at a ridiculous 24% clip at home. The math gets ugly fast.

The smart money loves these mismatched pace scenarios. UConn wants to slow-grind possessions while Marquette desperately needs tempo to stay competitive. When the better team controls pace AND has the defensive edge, covers happen.

Marquette's 5-9 record isn't just bad luck – they're getting outrebounded by 8 per game and can't finish possessions. Against UConn's suffocating home defense, those weaknesses become fatal.

The line's moved from 18 to 19.5 for a reason. Sharp action always tells the story before tipoff.

**Lean: UConn -19.5**

Everyone's drooling over Gonzaga's 15-1 record and that pretty 94% home win rate, but they're missing the real story - this number stinks worse than last night's cigarettes.

Twenty-three and a half? Against a Loyola Marymount team that's won 62% on the road? The Zags have been sleepwalking through recent games, barely covering against inferior competition. Meanwhile, LMU's been grinding out ugly wins away from home, playing exactly the kind of desperate basketball that keeps games closer than they should be.

Sure, Gonzaga's got more talent in their starting five than most teams have on their entire roster. But talent doesn't always translate when you're laying nearly four touchdowns in college basketball. The Lions aren't going to roll over in Spokane - they've got nothing to lose and everything to prove.

The market's inflated this line based on names and records, not current form. Sharps know better.

**Take the points with Loyola Marymount +23.5**