Today's NCAAB Games

Why are we overthinking a number that screams contradiction?

Look, Nebraska's riding a perfect 14-0 wave, but here's the thing - undefeated teams in hostile road environments either blow up spectacularly or grind out ugly wins. There's rarely middle ground. Ohio State at home with their backs against the wall? They're not folding quietly in Columbus.

The 155.5 total feels bloated for what this game actually is. Nebraska's been winning, sure, but they haven't been lighting up scoreboards doing it. Ohio State's inconsistent offense suddenly has to show up against a team that hasn't lost yet? That's asking a lot.

This screams defensive slugfest. Two teams overthinking every possession, crowd factor disrupting rhythm, and Nebraska playing not to lose their perfect record rather than to dominate.

The spread's a coin flip, but that total? It's begging you to take the over when everything points to a grind-it-out affair.

**Take the under 155.5.** Sometimes the obvious play is obvious for a reason.

Everyone's looking at two 12-2 teams and thinking this is some evenly-matched heavyweight bout. Wrong. USC just got pantsed by Penn State in their last meaningful game, losing by 19 at home while shooting 35% from the field. That's the kind of embarrassment that follows you on the road.

Michigan State? They're feeding off home energy at Breslin Center where they've been dominant. The Spartans have revenge motivation too - they remember getting worked by better Pac-12 teams in recent tournaments. This USC squad isn't built for hostile road environments, and their guard play crumbles under pressure.

The line assumes these records are equal, but context matters. USC's wins came against cupcakes and fool's gold opponents. Michigan State has been battle-tested in conference play and knows how to close games at home. Trojans will fold when the crowd gets loud and the shots stop falling.

The revenge narrative runs through East Lansing tonight.

**Take: Michigan State -11.5**