NCAAF Analysis

Look, this is the matchup we've been waiting for all season. Michigan, the 2023-24 national champions who lost the title to Ohio State last season, had some serious roster turnover, but Sherrone Moore has kept this program humming. The Wolverines lost a lot of talent to the draft, but their defense is still nasty. They're holding opponents to just 18.4 points per game and they've got that Big Ten physicality that gives spread teams fits.

USC under Lincoln Riley finally looks like the contender everyone expected when he arrived. Caleb Williams is gone, but Miller Moss has stepped up big time, throwing for 3,200 yards with a 68% completion rate. The Trojans are averaging 38.2 points per game and they've found that balance between the air raid and establishing a ground game. Their offensive line has been the real story - only 14 sacks allowed all season.

Here's the thing though - Michigan travels well and they've got nothing to lose here. The Wolverines are 5-1 ATS as underdogs this year and they're going to make this ugly. USC wants to run tempo, but Michigan will slow this game down to a crawl. I'm not saying Michigan wins outright, but 3.5 points feels like a gift for a defense this talented.

Two of the most storied programs in college football history meeting in a neutral site game? Yes please. Penn State has been absolutely dominant this season, with Drew Allar finally living up to his five-star billing. The kid is completing 71% of his passes and has only thrown 4 picks all year. When your quarterback is that efficient and you've got a defense allowing just 15.8 PPG, you're going to win a lot of football games.

Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman continues to improve. The Irish got embarrassed in the playoff last year, but they've used that as fuel. Their rushing attack is averaging 215 yards per game behind a dominant offensive line, and they've got playmakers at every level of the defense. Safety Xavier Watts has been a ballhawk with 6 interceptions, and the front seven is collapsing pockets at will.

I love Penn State's physicality in this spot. James Franklin has been building toward this for years, and this team feels different. They're not going to out-athlete Notre Dame, but they're going to out-execute them. The Nittany Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, and they've been dominant in the trenches. Give me Penn State laying the short number in what should be a classic Big Ten-style slugfest.

The SEC East rivalry renewed in a massive bowl setting. Tennessee came into this season with championship aspirations after Josh Heupel's offense put up video game numbers. Nico Iamaleava has been electric, throwing for 2,900 yards and 28 touchdowns while adding another 450 on the ground. This offense is averaging 42 points per game and they don't take their foot off the gas.

Georgia, as always, is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Kirby Smart just reloads every single year, and this defense is allowing opponents just 14.2 PPG. Carson Beck has been surgical at quarterback, and the Bulldogs have that championship DNA that you just can't teach. They've been in these moments before and they thrive under pressure.

Here's my concern with Tennessee - they've struggled against elite competition this year. Their three losses came against teams currently in the playoff picture, and they gave up 35+ points in each of those games. Georgia's defense is going to feast on Iamaleava's aggressiveness. The Bulldogs are 8-2 ATS as favorites this season and they know how to close out games. Lay the points with Georgia.

ACC powers colliding in what should be a shootout. Miami has been one of the most exciting teams in the country to watch this year. Cam Ward came in from Washington State and immediately elevated this program. He's thrown for 3,800 yards and 35 touchdowns, and he's got that gunslinger mentality that makes every game must-see TV. The Hurricanes are averaging 44 points per game and they've got speed at every position.

Clemson has quietly had a solid season under Dabo Swinney. The Tigers lost some key pieces but Cade Klubnik has developed into a legitimate ACC quarterback. He's thrown for 2,700 yards with 24 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. The running game has been solid too, with Phil Mafah grinding out tough yards and keeping defenses honest.

I'm looking at this total more than the spread. Both of these defenses have been inconsistent against quality competition. Miami is giving up 28 points per game to ranked opponents, and Clemson has allowed 30+ points in three of their last five. With two high-powered offenses and questionable defenses, this one is going to be a track meet. Give me the over 58.5 all day long.