NCAAF Analysis

Big 12 Championship Game in Arlington, and Texas is looking to make a statement before the playoff field is finalized. The Longhorns have been absolutely rolling this season, with Quinn Ewers playing the best football of his career. He's thrown for 3,400 yards with a 32:5 TD to INT ratio, and the offensive line has given him all day to work. This is the most complete Texas team we've seen in over a decade.

Oklahoma State kept pace in the Big 12 all year behind one of the best rushing attacks in the conference. Ollie Gordon II is a legitimate Heisman candidate, averaging 6.2 yards per carry with 1,650 rushing yards on the season. The Cowboys can control the clock and shorten this game if they get their ground game going early. Their defense has been opportunistic too, with 22 takeaways on the year.

Here's my issue with laying 10.5 points in a conference championship - Oklahoma State has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Mike Gundy knows how to prepare for big games, and the Cowboys are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Texas should win this game, but double-digit spreads in championship games are dangerous. I'm taking the points with Oklahoma State and hoping Gordon can keep this within one score.

Mountain West Championship with major implications for the Group of Five playoff spot. Boise State is back to being the class of the conference, and Ashton Jeanty has been absolutely unstoppable. The running back has rushed for 1,890 yards and 23 touchdowns, and he's got that home run threat that makes defenses play honest. The Broncos are averaging 38 points per game at home on the blue turf this season.

San Diego State brings one of the toughest defenses in the conference to Boise. The Aztecs are allowing just 19.2 points per game and they've got the physicality to match up with anyone. Their secondary has been lockdown, with only 12 passing touchdowns allowed all season. Brady Hoke has this team playing with an edge, and they're not intimidated by playing on the blue turf.

This is going to be a physical, low-scoring affair if San Diego State has anything to say about it. The Aztecs want to slow this game down, control the clock, and keep Jeanty off the field. I actually like the under here more than anything. Both teams play solid defense, and December games in Boise tend to be grind-it-out affairs. Give me under 49.5 in what should be a classic Mountain West slugfest.

ACC Championship Game between two programs that have been resurgent this season. Louisville under Jeff Brohm has been electric. Tyler Shough has thrown for 3,100 yards and the Cardinals offense is averaging 41 points per game. They've got playmakers at every position and Brohm's scheme creates mismatches all over the field. This is the most dangerous Louisville team since the Lamar Jackson days.

Georgia Tech's turnaround under Bret Bielema has been one of the best stories in college football this year. Haynes King has been a revelation at quarterback, throwing for 2,800 yards while adding 700 on the ground. The Yellow Jackets are athletic at every level and they've got that "nobody believed in us" chip on their shoulder. They knocked off Miami and Clemson in the same season - this team is battle-tested.

Look, I'm going with the over in this one. Both of these offenses score in bunches and neither defense has been consistently lockdown against quality competition. Louisville has gone over in 7 of their last 9 games, and Georgia Tech puts up points even in losses. This total might be too low considering the firepower on both sides. Give me over 61.5 and buckle up for a shootout.

Army-Navy. It doesn't matter what the records are, it doesn't matter what the stakes are - this game is always special. Army has been one of the most dominant teams in the country this year, going 11-1 with their only loss coming to Notre Dame on the road. The triple option is churning out 320 rushing yards per game, and their defense has been suffocating, allowing just 14.8 points per game.

Navy has had an up-and-down season, but they've been playing their best football in November. The Midshipmen have won four straight heading into this game, and they've found an identity with their ground game. Blake Horvath has been dual-threat nightmare, and Navy's defense has been stingy in the second half of games. They've allowed just 10 points per game in the fourth quarter this season.

I'm going with the under here, and it's not even close. These two teams are going to run the ball 90% of the time, the clock is going to keep running, and neither team throws enough to create explosive plays. Army-Navy games have gone under in 7 of the last 10 meetings, and I don't see that trend changing. Under 38.5 in a game that might finish 17-10.