NCAAF Analysis

SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, and this one has playoff implications written all over it. Alabama has been finding their identity under Kalen DeBoer in his first year in Tuscaloosa. The offense has been explosive with Jalen Milroe orchestrating a balanced attack - 2,800 yards passing and 650 rushing with 38 total touchdowns. The Tide's defense has been opportunistic with 24 takeaways, creating chaos in the secondary.

Georgia is looking for back-to-back SEC titles and Kirby Smart has this program operating at an elite level. The Bulldogs defense is absolutely suffocating, allowing just 13.8 points per game with a front seven that gets after the quarterback constantly. Carson Beck has been efficient at quarterback, avoiding mistakes while connecting on chunk plays when the opportunity presents itself.

Here's the thing about these SEC Championship Games - they tend to be physical, low-scoring battles. Both defenses are elite, and neither offense wants to take unnecessary risks with the playoff on the line. I actually like the under 49.5 here. This game is going to be decided in the trenches, and whoever wins the turnover battle likely takes home the trophy. Expect a 24-21 type of game.

Big Ten Championship Game rematch from a classic regular season showdown. Ohio State bounced back from a devastating loss to Michigan and has been on a mission ever since. Will Howard has been outstanding at quarterback, throwing for 3,300 yards with 29 touchdowns. The Buckeyes receiving corps is absolutely loaded, and TreVeyon Henderson is hitting his stride with over 1,400 rushing yards on the season.

Penn State came up short against the Buckeyes earlier this year, but James Franklin's squad has shown resilience throughout the season. Drew Allar has developed into one of the best quarterbacks in the conference, and the Nittany Lions defense has been stingy all year long. They're giving up just 16.2 points per game and they've been particularly tough against the run, something that could neutralize Henderson.

I'm taking Ohio State to cover here, and here's why - the Buckeyes are on a revenge tour after the Michigan loss, and they're going to come out with something to prove. Penn State played them close in the first meeting, but Ohio State has been a different team since then. The Buckeyes are 7-1 ATS as favorites this year, and they've got too much firepower for Penn State's defense to contain.

AAC Championship Game between two programs that can flat-out score. Tulane has been one of the most exciting teams in the Group of Five all season, averaging 41 points per game behind a balanced offensive attack. Darian Mensah has been phenomenal at quarterback, throwing for 3,400 yards with 32 touchdowns. The Green Wave also have one of the best rushing attacks in the conference, keeping defenses honest all game long.

Memphis comes in riding a six-game winning streak and their offense has been clicking. Seth Henigan is a gunslinger who isn't afraid to take shots downfield, throwing for 3,100 yards on the season. The Tigers have playmakers at receiver who can stretch the field, and their ground game has been surprisingly effective in recent weeks. This team is dangerous when they're rolling.

Look, this total is sitting at 64.5 and I think it's still too low. Neither of these defenses has been able to consistently stop quality offenses, and both teams want to push tempo. Tulane games have gone over in 8 of their last 11, and Memphis is averaging 38 points in their winning streak. This is going to be a track meet, and I'm taking the over without hesitation.

Pacific Northwest showdown with Oregon looking to cement their playoff spot. The Ducks have been dominant all season under Dan Lanning, with Dillon Gabriel putting together a Heisman-worthy campaign. He's thrown for 3,500 yards with 34 touchdowns and only 5 interceptions. Oregon's offense is averaging 44 points per game and they've been virtually unstoppable at home this year.

Washington is trying to rebuild after losing so much talent from last year's national championship run. The Huskies have shown flashes of brilliance but haven't been able to put together complete games against elite competition. Their defense has struggled against tempo offenses, giving up 30+ points in four of their last six games. This is a tough spot for a young team.

Oregon is going to cover this number. The Ducks are playing for a first-round bye in the playoff, and they're not going to take their foot off the gas. Washington's defense can't handle Oregon's speed and tempo, and I expect Gabriel to have a field day. The Ducks are 6-1 ATS at home this season, and they're going to make a statement in their final regular season game. Take Oregon -9.5.