FCS National Championship - January 6

The Setup

This is the matchup nobody predicted but everyone should've seen coming. Illinois State just became the first team in FCS HISTORY to win four consecutive road playoff games, including the most improbable upset of them all - walking into the Fargodome and knocking off North Dakota State, a program that's won nine of the last 13 national titles. That alone tells you these Redbirds are playing with house money and zero fear.

Montana State, meanwhile, is carrying the weight of two consecutive title game heartbreaks. They lost to NDSU in 2021 and got their hearts ripped out again last year. Head coach Brent Vigen has built a machine in Bozeman - 13 straight wins, a semifinal demolition of rival Montana (48-23), and a roster that won't be denied again.

The Key Matchup

Here's where this gets interesting: Montana State lives and dies by the ground game. They're averaging 234.5 rushing yards per game - fourth-best in the FCS - with a two-headed monster in Julius Davis (1,100 yards, 8 TDs) and Adam Jones (1,047 yards, 15 TDs). QB Justin Lamson, the Stanford transfer, adds another 704 rushing yards and 14 scores while completing 72% of his passes.

But Illinois State owns the No. 10 rush defense grade in all of FCS football. Linebacker Tye Niekamp is a certified monster - 155 tackles, 14.5 TFLs, and he's been the best defensive player in the country this postseason. If anyone can slow down the Bobcat ground attack, it's this unit.

Why Montana State Covers

Look, I respect what Illinois State has done - genuinely historic run. But there's a difference between peaking at the right time and being the better team. Montana State has scored 31+ points in 11 of their last 13 games. Their offensive line is the best in the FCS, and Lamson is the most complete quarterback in the bracket.

The Redbirds have been living on the edge all playoff long - surviving in hostile environments, pulling off upsets. Eventually that magic runs out. Montana State has the talent, the experience (third title game in five years), and the chip on their shoulder to finish this time.

The Play

Montana State -10 is steep for a championship game, but the Bobcats have covered by 11+ in 11 games this season. Illinois State's Cinderella story ends here against a team that's been building toward this moment for three years. Take Montana State to cover and look at the OVER 57.5 - both offenses can score, and this game should open up in the second half.