NFL Week 14 Analysis

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Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) @ Detroit Lions (7-5)

Matchup analysis coming soon. Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) visits Detroit Lions (7-5).

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Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-4)

This is the game of the week in the AFC. Pittsburgh leads the division at 9-3, but Baltimore at 8-4 controls their own destiny with a win. Lamar Jackson is playing at an MVP level with 3,100+ passing yards and 28 total touchdowns. The Ravens' rushing attack leads the NFL at 191.2 yards per game, powered by the Derrick Henry acquisition that's transformed their offense into an unstoppable ground machine.

The Steelers' Defense vs. Lamar/Henry: Pittsburgh's defense ranks 3rd in scoring (17.8 PPG allowed) and has been elite at creating turnovers with 24 takeaways. T.J. Watt leads the team with 11.5 sacks, and the Steelers have held opponents under 100 rushing yards in 7 of 12 games. But Lamar and Henry present a unique challenge - Baltimore is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this season.

Russell Wilson's Resurgence: Wilson has stabilized Pittsburgh's offense with a 20:5 TD:INT ratio since taking over. George Pickens has emerged as an elite WR1 with 900+ receiving yards, and Najee Harris is averaging 4.3 YPC. The Steelers control the clock at 31:42 average time of possession (5th in NFL).

Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. Baltimore is 4-2 at home but has struggled to cover as a home favorite all season. This divisional matchup has stayed within one possession in 8 of the last 10 meetings.

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Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) @ Buffalo Bills (10-2)

Joe Burrow vs. Josh Allen is appointment television regardless of records. Cincinnati's 4-8 mark is deceiving - they've lost 5 games by one possession and Burrow is playing at an elite level with 3,450 passing yards and 27 touchdowns. Buffalo at 10-2 leads the NFL in scoring at 31.2 PPG and looks like the team to beat in the AFC.

Allen's MVP Campaign: Josh Allen has 28 total touchdowns (23 passing, 5 rushing) with only 5 interceptions. He's completing 68% of his passes and Buffalo's offense is converting 48% of third downs (2nd in NFL). The Bills have scored 30+ points in 8 of 12 games this season.

Burrow's Dangerous Despite Record: Don't let Cincinnati's record fool you - Burrow has a 103.4 passer rating with Ja'Marr Chase totaling 1,300+ receiving yards and 12 TDs. The Bengals' offensive line issues have been the problem, allowing 38 sacks. Burrow has been pressured on 35% of dropbacks.

Buffalo is 7-1 at home but only 5-7 ATS as favorites. The Bills have covered only twice in their last 6 games as home favorites of 7+ points. Burrow has the talent to keep this closer than the spread suggests in what should be an entertaining quarterback duel.

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Indianapolis Colts (6-7) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (3-9)

Indianapolis needs this game desperately to keep their playoff hopes alive at 6-7. Jacksonville's 3-9 record is one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL after their playoff run two years ago. The Jaguars defense ranks 28th in scoring, allowing 26.3 PPG, which plays right into the Colts' hands.

Anthony Richardson's Dual-Threat: When healthy, Richardson is one of the most dynamic QBs in football. He's averaging 4.7 yards per carry with 5 rushing TDs and has shown improvement as a passer with a 92.1 passer rating in his last 4 starts. Jonathan Taylor is averaging 4.8 YPC and has 8 total TDs.

Jacksonville's Dysfunction: Trevor Lawrence has regressed significantly with 12 interceptions and a 78.4 passer rating. The defense has allowed 30+ points in 6 games this season. Head coach Doug Pederson is on the hot seat, and this team has quit on the season.

Indianapolis is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite this year. Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS at home. The Colts should control this game with their rushing attack and Richardson's playmaking ability.

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Tennessee Titans (3-9) @ Cleveland Browns (3-9)

The 37.5 total is the lowest on the Week 14 slate, and for good reason. Both teams are offensively challenged and playing out the string at 3-9. Tennessee's offense ranks dead last in scoring at 15.8 PPG, while Cleveland's dysfunction at quarterback has made them nearly unwatchable.

Draft Positioning Game: This is a battle for the top of the 2026 NFL Draft. Will Levis has thrown 12 interceptions for Tennessee and the offense has scored 20+ points only 3 times all season. Cleveland is starting their 4th different QB this year and Nick Chubb hasn't returned to form after his knee injury.

Weather Factor: December in Cleveland typically means cold, windy conditions that suppress scoring. Both defenses are competent when not on the field for 35+ minutes per game. The Under is 7-2 in Browns home games this season.

This is a stay-away game for most bettors. If forced to pick, the Under is the safest play on the board. Neither team has shown the ability to move the ball consistently or finish drives in the red zone.

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Seattle Seahawks (7-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (6-6)

This is a playoff-implications matchup for both teams. Seattle at 7-5 controls their own destiny in the NFC West, while Atlanta at 6-6 is fighting for the NFC South lead with Tampa Bay. The Falcons have turned to Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, which adds intrigue to this matchup.

Geno Smith's Consistency: Smith has a 94.2 passer rating with 2,900+ passing yards and 17 TDs. DK Metcalf (900+ yards, 8 TDs) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba have formed a dangerous receiving duo. Seattle's offense is averaging 24.1 PPG and has been efficient in the red zone at 62%.

Bijan Robinson's Emergence: Robinson has 1,150+ rushing yards and is averaging 5.2 YPC - one of the best marks in the NFL. He's also a threat in the passing game with 45+ receptions. With Penix at QB, expect Atlanta to lean heavily on Robinson and the ground game.

Mercedes-Benz Advantage: Atlanta is 4-2 at home this season, and the dome eliminates weather as a factor. The Falcons' defense ranks 15th in scoring at 21.8 PPG allowed, a massive improvement from early in the season.

Seattle is 3-3 on the road but has covered in back-to-back away games. This should be a close, competitive game with both teams needing the win for playoff positioning.

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Minnesota Vikings (10-2) @ Washington Commanders (8-5)

Two of the best stories in football collide. Sam Darnold's career resurrection in Minnesota (107.3 passer rating, 26 TDs) has the Vikings at 10-2 and challenging for the NFC's top seed. Jayden Daniels' Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign has Washington at 8-5 and firmly in playoff position.

Justin Jefferson is Unstoppable: Jefferson leads the NFL with 1,400+ receiving yards and 9 TDs. He's averaging 105 yards per game and has exceeded 100 yards in 9 of 12 games. When Jefferson is on, Minnesota's offense is virtually impossible to slow down. The Vikings rank 4th in scoring at 27.8 PPG.

Jayden Daniels' Dual-Threat: The rookie has 2,950 passing yards, 18 TDs, and only 6 INTs. He's also added 650+ rushing yards and 6 rushing TDs, making him one of the most dynamic playmakers in football. Terry McLaurin (1,000+ yards) has been a reliable target, and the young Commanders are playing with house money.

Elite Defenses: Minnesota's defense ranks 5th in scoring at 18.9 PPG allowed with 45 sacks (1st in NFL). Brian Flores' scheme has generated pressure on 38% of dropbacks. Washington's defense has improved dramatically, ranking 12th in scoring after struggling early.

Minnesota is 5-1 on the road this season and has covered 4 straight games as a favorite. Washington is 5-2 at home but faces their toughest test yet. This game will tell us a lot about both teams' Super Bowl credentials.

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Chicago Bears (4-8) @ Green Bay Packers (9-3)

The oldest rivalry in the NFL features a Green Bay team fighting for the NFC North title against a Chicago squad that has fallen apart after a promising start to the Caleb Williams era. The Packers are 9-3 and 6-0 at Lambeau Field, where they haven't lost since early last season.

Jordan Love's Emergence: Love has a 98.2 passer rating with 23 TDs and 10 INTs. His connection with Jayden Reed (900+ yards, 7 TDs) and Romeo Doubs has powered Green Bay's 25.4 PPG offense. Josh Jacobs has added 1,100+ rushing yards after his offseason acquisition.

Caleb Williams' Growing Pains: The No. 1 overall pick has thrown 15 interceptions and taken 52 sacks behind a porous offensive line. Chicago's offense ranks 25th in scoring at 19.2 PPG. The defense has been solid, but they can't overcome the turnover differential (-12).

Lambeau in December: Green Bay is 8-0 ATS in December home games over the past two seasons. The cold weather and hostile environment have been nightmares for young QBs. Williams is 0-4 in road games with 8 INTs.

Green Bay needs this win to keep pressure on Detroit for the division lead. The Packers should control this game from start to finish against a Bears team that has lost 6 of their last 7.