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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions - NFC North Showdown
Thursday 1:00 PM ET | FOX | Ford Field | DET -2.5 | O/U 48.5
Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) at Detroit Lions (7-4) - The Thanksgiving Day triple-header kicks off with a massive NFC North divisional clash at Ford Field. Look, this is the game that matters most on the holiday slate. Both of these teams are fighting for playoff positioning in what has become the NFL's most competitive division, with the Chicago Bears surprisingly sitting atop the NFC North at 8-3. The Packers enter at 7-3-1 in second place, while the Lions sit third at 7-4. Whoever wins this game lands in second place going into Friday.
The Week 1 Revenge Factor
Here's the thing about this matchup that everyone needs to understand. These two teams already met on September 7th at Lambeau Field, and the Packers dominated that game 27-13. Detroit remembers that loss, and playing at home on Thanksgiving gives them the perfect opportunity for revenge. The Lions are 37-45-2 all-time on Thanksgiving, but this is a different Lions team than the ones that used to get embarrassed on the holiday. Dan Campbell's squad has legitimate playoff aspirations and can't afford to drop another divisional game.
Divisional Records Tell the Story
The Packers are 2-0 in division games this season, one of only six teams in the league undefeated in divisional play. That's not a coincidence. Matt LaFleur's teams consistently show up in games that matter, and his ATS record as an underdog speaks volumes. The Packers are an incredible 18-6-1 ATS as underdogs of three or more points under LaFleur. Meanwhile, the Lions' divisional record sits at 1-2, with losses to both the Packers and Vikings. That Week 1 defeat to Green Bay and a loss to Minnesota have Detroit fighting from behind in the division race.
Recent Form and Momentum
Green Bay is coming off a dominant 23-6 victory over the Minnesota Vikings, showcasing the kind of defensive performance that makes them dangerous in December. Jordan Love has the offense clicking, and the Packers look like a team hitting their stride at the right time. Detroit rallied for a 34-27 win over the New York Giants on Sunday, but needed a comeback to get it done. Jared Goff has been solid this season, but this defense has shown vulnerability in big spots.
The Betting Angle
The Packers are just 4-7 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS on the road, which makes this a tricky spot. However, that LaFleur underdog number is impossible to ignore. The Lions are 6-5 ATS overall but a concerning 0-3 ATS when the line sits between +3 and -3. Historically, Detroit is just 8-12 ATS on Thanksgiving over the last 20 years. This game feels like it comes down to the wire, and getting the Packers as short underdogs in a game they already won this season makes sense.
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Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys - America's Game
Thursday 4:30 PM ET | CBS | AT&T Stadium | KC -3.5 | O/U 52.5
Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) - This is the marquee matchup of Thanksgiving Day, and it's fitting that these two franchises meet on the biggest stage. The last time the Cowboys and Chiefs played on Thanksgiving was 1995, when Dallas won 24-12 on their way to a Super Bowl title. Thirty years later, both teams are fighting to stay relevant in their respective conferences. The Chiefs enter at 6-5 and third in the AFC West after losing two of their last three games. Dallas sits at 5-5-1 and second in the NFC East after a gutsy 24-21 win over the Eagles.
The Chiefs' Struggles Away From Arrowhead
Here's what nobody is talking about with Kansas City. This team is 1-4 on the road this season. Let that sink in. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions can't win away from home. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,977 yards with 18 touchdowns and 7 interceptions this season, but his recent play has been concerning. Over his last three games, Mahomes has a troubling 1:3 TD to INT ratio. Against the Colts last week, he went 29-46 for 352 yards with one interception. Kansas City needed overtime just to beat Indianapolis 23-20, and that was supposed to be a get-right game.
Dallas at Home as an Underdog
The Cowboys are a different team at AT&T Stadium. Their home record sits at 3-1-1 this season, and more importantly, they're 4-1 ATS as underdogs. Dallas is riding a four-game ATS win streak as a home underdog. That's not random variance. This team plays up to competition when the pressure is on. The win over Philadelphia last week proved that Dallas still has fight, and Dak Prescott looked sharp when it mattered most.
The Chiefs' Road Woes Continue
Kansas City is 0-3 ATS in their last three games as road favorites. That's a massive red flag heading into a hostile environment on a day when 90,000 fans will be screaming. The Chiefs opened as 4-point favorites but the line has already moved down to -3.5 at most books, and some have it at -3. The sharp money is clearly on Dallas here. Travis Kelce has 54 catches for 674 yards and 4 touchdowns this season, and he remains Mahomes' primary weapon, but the supporting cast has been inconsistent.
Why Dallas Keeps This Close
The implied win probability has the Chiefs at 61.7% versus 38.3% for Dallas, but those numbers don't account for situational factors. Kansas City has been a different team on the road, and Dallas has consistently covered as a home underdog. The total opened at 51.5 and has climbed to 52.5, suggesting bettors expect points. Given the Chiefs' defensive struggles and Dallas playing with house money, this game profiles as a shootout where the Cowboys hang around.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens - AFC North Primetime
Thursday 8:20 PM ET | NBC/Peacock | M&T Bank Stadium | BAL -7 | O/U 51.5
Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) at Baltimore Ravens (6-5) - The Thanksgiving night cap features one of the NFL's best rivalries, with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson hosting perennial MVP candidate Joe Burrow in an AFC North battle. But this isn't the matchup we expected at the start of the season. Baltimore has surged back into contention with five straight wins after starting 1-5, while Cincinnati limps in at 3-8 with their playoff hopes essentially dead. This game is about pride for the Bengals and positioning for the Ravens.
Joe Burrow's Return
The biggest story of this game is Joe Burrow's return from injury. Burrow underwent surgery for a Grade 3 turf toe injury in his left foot back in September, and he had this game circled on his calendar as his target return date. The original prognosis had him out at least three months, but he's back about two and a half weeks earlier than expected. Cincinnati officially activated Burrow from injured reserve on Wednesday, making him the starter for Thanksgiving night. The Bengals went just 1-7 without him, managing only one victory as the offense completely fell apart.
Missing Pieces for Cincinnati
Even with Burrow back, this Bengals team is banged up. Tee Higgins is out with a concussion, and Trey Hendrickson is sidelined with a hip injury. The good news is Ja'Marr Chase returns from his one-game suspension to give Burrow his top weapon. But Cincinnati's defense has been a disaster all season. Opponents are averaging 32.7 points per game against the Bengals, the worst mark in the NFL. They're also surrendering 415.8 yards per game, which again ranks dead last. You can't win games giving up that many points and yards, no matter who's playing quarterback.
Baltimore's Five-Game Surge
The Ravens have completely turned their season around. After that brutal 1-5 start, Baltimore has won five straight games to pull even with Pittsburgh atop the AFC North at 6-5. Derrick Henry has been the catalyst, carrying the grind-it-out attack since Lamar Jackson returned from his own injury. Henry has scored three touchdowns over the last two weeks and remains one of the most dominant runners in football. The Ravens have won four straight games against Cincinnati, including both matchups last season when Burrow threw for 820 yards but still lost both games.
The Line Movement
This line opened at Ravens -10.5 and has dropped all the way to -7 with Burrow's return. That's significant movement, and it makes sense. Burrow changes everything for Cincinnati, even if they're still undermanned. The Bengals are just 1-4 ATS on the road this season, and Baltimore is 4-1 ATS over their last five meetings with Cincinnati. But getting Burrow back at +7 feels like value, especially in a rivalry game where emotions run high. The under 51.5 is also worth considering given Burrow's rust and Baltimore's run-heavy approach.
