NFL Week 12 Complete Breakdown: Sunday Through Monday Night - Thirteen Games, Playoff Implications Everywhere
Posted: November 23, 2025, 6:00 AM ET
Week 12 delivers thirteen compelling matchups across Sunday and Monday, with massive playoff implications rippling through both conferences. We've got dominant teams looking to extend winning streaks, struggling franchises fighting for relevance, and several division showdowns that will shape the postseason picture. From the Patriots' historic rookie campaign to the Titans' historically bad offense, from NFC East fireworks to basement battles, this week has it all. Let's break down every single game with verified stats, trends, and the key angles you need to know.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Chicago Bears 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: Pittsburgh 6-4 (2nd AFC North) | Chicago 7-3 (1st NFC North) | Line: CHI -2.5 | Head-to-Head: Bears lead all-time 19-8, Steelers are 1-12 playing in Chicago
This matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions from what many expected pre-season. The Bears have emerged as one of 2025's biggest surprises, sitting atop the NFC North at 7-3 behind the development of quarterback Caleb Williams in his second season. Williams has thrown for 2,329 yards with 13 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions, showing the kind of ball security and decision-making that has Chicago fans dreaming about January football. The Bears rank 8th in scoring at 25.8 points per game, with a balanced attack that features 1,466 rushing yards and 2,378 passing yards.
The Steelers arrive at 6-4 with the 12th-ranked offense (24.6 PPG) and 18th-ranked defense (23.4 PPG allowed). Pittsburgh has accumulated 2,869 total yards with a relatively balanced split between rushing (882) and passing (2,108). The defense has recorded 19 sacks through ten games but has surrendered 23 touchdowns. The bigger concern for Pittsburgh is the venue: historically, the Steelers are 1-12 all-time when playing in Chicago, and the Bears have outscored them 50-46 in their last two meetings. That home-field dominance at Soldier Field is real, and with approximately 10mph winds expected to have minimal impact, the weather won't be an equalizer.
Chicago's defensive weakness ranks 26th in points allowed at 26.4 per game, which theoretically gives Pittsburgh's balanced offense an opportunity. However, the Bears have generated 15 interceptions this season, showing a knack for creating game-changing turnovers. The Steelers have thrown 7 picks, and if Chicago's defense can force a couple of turnovers while Williams takes care of the football, the home team should control this NFC-AFC crossover. The 2.5-point spread feels tight, but given the historical dominance the Bears have enjoyed in this venue against Pittsburgh and their superior record, Chicago should cover and win outright.
New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: New England 9-2 (1st AFC East, tied for best record in NFL) | Cincinnati 3-7 (3rd AFC North) | Line: NE -7 | Injury: Joe Burrow (CIN) OUT - turf toe, Joe Flacco starting
This game epitomizes the phrase "mismatch on paper." The Patriots enter with the NFL's best record at 9-2, riding an eight-game winning streak that has them positioned as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Rookie quarterback Drake Maye is rewriting the record books, leading the league in passing yards with 2,836 and adding 20 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. What Maye has accomplished is historic - no quarterback in NFL history has matched his statistical achievements through their first 11 starts. New England ranks 7th in scoring at 26.5 points per game with 3,927 total yards and an impressive 36 sacks on defense (tied for 4th in the NFL). They're dominant on both sides of the ball and showing no signs of slowing down.
Cincinnati's season, meanwhile, is effectively over at 3-7. The Bengals rank dead last in the NFL in points allowed at a catastrophic 33.4 per game - they've surrendered 334 points through ten games, which is historically bad. Joe Burrow remains sidelined with turf toe and won't be activated for Week 12, meaning 39-year-old Joe Flacco will make his sixth consecutive start. Flacco has thrown for 2,268 yards with 14 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and while he's a capable veteran, he's simply not in the same stratosphere as a healthy Burrow. The offense ranks 18th in scoring at 22.8 PPG with just 228 total points.
Let's do the math here: a 9-2 team with the 7th-best offense (26.5 PPG) and a defense recording 36 sacks, traveling to face a 3-7 team with the 32nd-ranked defense (33.4 PPG allowed) and a backup quarterback. This is the definition of a smash spot for New England. The Patriots should score 30+ points with ease, and Maye's historic rookie campaign will continue with another dominant performance. Cincinnati's defense simply has no answers for what the Patriots will throw at them. Look for New England to cover the 7-point spread comfortably and potentially win by double digits.
New York Giants at Detroit Lions 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: NY Giants 2-9 (4th NFC East) | Detroit 6-4 (3rd NFC North) | Line: DET -10 | Injury: Jaxson Dart (NYG) OUT - concussion, Sam LaPorta (DET) OUT for season - back surgery
The Giants are one of the NFL's worst teams, and their 2-9 record tells the story. New York ranks 24th in scoring at 21.7 points per game with 3,665 total yards. Daniel Jones has thrown for 2,659 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, but the offense has managed just 29 total touchdowns. The defense is even worse, allowing 5.98 yards per play and giving up 148.6 rushing yards per game recently. They've surrendered 35 touchdowns through eleven weeks. Backup quarterback Jaxson Dart is ruled out with a concussion, leaving the Giants even more shorthanded. This is a team playing out the string.
Detroit, conversely, is in the thick of the NFC North race at 6-4. The Lions rank 4th in scoring at 29.2 points per game - entering Week 11 they were averaging 31.4 PPG, second only to the Colts. Jared Goff has been exceptional, completing passes at a 75.2% clip with 2,490 yards, 21 touchdowns (tied for 2nd in the NFL), and just 4 interceptions. The Lions have weapons everywhere: running back Jahmyr Gibbs has 390 yards and 4 touchdowns, while Amon-Ra St. Brown has hauled in 44 catches for 452 yards and 6 touchdowns. The defense ranks 10th in points allowed at 21.6 per game under coordinator Kelvin Sheppard.
The only loss for Detroit is tight end Sam LaPorta, who's out for the season following back surgery. But that won't matter against a Giants defense allowing nearly 6 yards per play. Ford Field will be rocking, and the Lions need to take care of business against inferior opponents if they want to secure a playoff spot. Detroit's explosive offense should have no trouble shredding New York's porous defense, and the Giants' anemic offense won't be able to keep pace. This double-digit spread is justified. The Lions should dominate from start to finish and potentially blow this game wide open. Detroit by two touchdowns feels right.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: Minnesota 4-6 (4th NFC North) | Green Bay 6-3-1 (2nd NFC North) | Line: GB -6 | Division Game: NFC North showdown at Lambeau Field
The NFC North is absolutely loaded this season, and this division matchup has serious implications for playoff positioning. Minnesota sits at 4-6, last in the division but still mathematically alive. The Vikings rank 21st in scoring at 22.3 points per game with 322.3 total yards per game (23rd in the NFL). Sam Darnold has thrown for 2,541 yards with 17 touchdowns but has also tossed 10 interceptions. The bigger problem is the turnover differential: Minnesota is -7, which is a death sentence in close games. The defense does generate pressure with 34 sacks (tied for 6th in the NFL), but they're not creating enough impact plays to overcome offensive mistakes.
Green Bay sits in second place at 6-3-1 after ending a two-game losing streak with a win over the Giants in Week 11. The Packers rank 13th in scoring at 24.0 points per game with a balanced attack featuring 1,007 rushing yards and 2,247 passing yards. Jordan Love has been excellent protecting the football, throwing for 2,421 yards with 15 touchdowns and only 3 interceptions. That ball security is a massive advantage over Darnold's 10 picks. The Packers' defense has been stout, allowing just 2,585 total yards and only 18 touchdowns (5 rushing, 13 passing). They're well-coached and disciplined.
This game will come down to which quarterback takes care of the football. Love's 3 interceptions versus Darnold's 10 is a glaring disparity, and Minnesota's -7 turnover ratio suggests they'll likely cough up the ball at least once at Lambeau. The Packers' defense (2,585 yards allowed) should be able to limit a Vikings offense that ranks 21st in scoring. Meanwhile, Green Bay's balanced attack and Love's efficiency should be enough to move the ball on Minnesota. Late November at Lambeau Field with playoff implications? The home team has every advantage. Green Bay covers the 6-point spread and keeps their NFC North title hopes alive.
Seattle Seahawks at Tennessee Titans 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: Seattle 7-3 (2nd NFC West) | Tennessee 1-9 (4th AFC South, worst record in NFL) | Line: SEA -13.5 | Point Differential: Titans -130 (worst in NFL)
If you're looking for the most lopsided matchup of Week 12, this is it. Seattle enters at 7-3 with the 3rd-ranked scoring offense in the NFL at 30.6 points per game. The Seahawks have accumulated 3,658 total yards with a balanced 1,164 rushing and 2,556 passing. They're one of only a handful of teams in the top 5 in BOTH offensive yards per play AND defensive yards per play allowed. The defense has surrendered just 3,015 total yards - that's elite territory. This is a complete, well-rounded football team that's competing for the NFC West title.
Tennessee, meanwhile, is an absolute disaster. The Titans are 1-9 with a -130 point differential - the worst in the entire NFL. They rank dead last in scoring at 14.3 points per game, dead last in total yards at 274.3 per game, 30th in passing (195.4 YPG), and dead last in rushing (78.9 YPG). They've managed just 2,425 total yards and only 12 touchdowns all season. Think about that - 12 touchdowns through ten games. That's barely over one per game. The offense is historically inept. The defense actually leads the NFL in sacks with 41, but what good does that do when your offense can't score?
This game has "ugly blowout" written all over it. Seattle is scoring 30.6 points per game, Tennessee is scoring 14.3. The Seahawks are chasing the Rams in the NFC West and need to keep winning. They're not going to take their foot off the gas against one of the league's worst teams. The 13.5-point spread is massive, but it's justified. In fact, it might not be enough. Seattle could win this game by 20+ if they wanted to run up the score. The Seahawks should dominate every phase of the game, and Tennessee's historically bad offense will struggle to move the ball against Seattle's top-5 defense. Expect a wire-to-wire beatdown in Nashville.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: Indianapolis 8-2 (1st AFC South, best point differential in NFL at +115) | Kansas City 5-5 (3rd AFC West) | Line: KC -3.5 | Weather: Perfect conditions - temps in 50s, no precipitation, winds under 10mph
This is the game of the week, no question. Indianapolis enters as the NFL's hottest team at 8-2 with a point differential of +115 - the best in the entire league. The Colts lead the NFL in scoring at 32.1 points per game and total yards at 396.9 per game. They've put up 321 points in ten games while allowing just 206 (20.6 PPG, ranked 9th). This is an elite team on both sides of the ball, and they're being described as "red-hot" heading into Arrowhead Stadium. The offense is explosive, balanced, and efficient. The defense is stingy and opportunistic. Indianapolis is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.
Kansas City, meanwhile, is in unfamiliar territory at 5-5. The defending champions sit in third place in the AFC West behind the Broncos (9-2) and Chargers (7-4). Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 2,625 yards with 18 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, while Travis Kelce is on pace for a 1,000-yard season (50 catches, 631 yards, 4 TDs) and recently became the Chiefs' all-time touchdown leader with 84 career scores. The Chiefs rank 9th in scoring at 25.4 PPG but their defense is elite at 4th in the NFL (18.1 PPG allowed, just 181 total points surrendered). They're still a dangerous team, but the .500 record shows they've been vulnerable.
This matchup features the league's best offense (Colts: 32.1 PPG) against the 4th-best defense (Chiefs: 18.1 PPG allowed). Something's got to give. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites at home, which shows the respect the oddsmakers have for Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead, even with a 5-5 record. But Indianapolis is rolling right now, and their point differential suggests they're the better team. The weather will be perfect with temps in the 50s and minimal wind. This is a potential playoff preview and could be a high-scoring affair - the Colts' explosive offense versus the Chiefs' need to win now before their season slips away. This should be an absolute shootout between two teams desperate for a victory. Don't be surprised if this game hits the 50s in total points.
New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Records: NY Jets 2-8 (4th AFC East) | Baltimore 5-5 (2nd AFC North) | Line: BAL -14 | Injury: Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) questionable - left wrist, Lamar Jackson (BAL) cleared to play
The Jets' season is over. At 2-8, they're one of the league's worst teams, ranking 25th in scoring (20.9 PPG, just 209 total points) and 27th in points allowed (26.8 PPG, 268 total points surrendered). Aaron Rodgers is questionable with a left wrist injury, and even if he plays, this roster is dysfunctional. The Patriots dominated them 27-14 in Week 11. The only bright spot is their pass rush - the Jets recorded 8 sacks on Josh Allen in a Thursday night game and rank tied for 4th in the NFL with 36 sacks overall. But generating pressure hasn't translated to wins.
Baltimore sits at 5-5 and desperately needs to win games like this to stay in the AFC playoff hunt. Lamar Jackson has been cleared to play after a minor ankle issue, and he's been outstanding through seven games: 1,442 yards, 15 touchdowns, just 3 interceptions, and a 115.5 passer rating. Jackson is a dual-threat nightmare who ranks in the top 2 in quarterback rushing yards in all seven of his NFL seasons. The Ravens rank 10th in scoring at 25.2 PPG with a balanced 1,420 rushing yards and 1,999 passing yards. But the real story is the defense: from Weeks 6-11, Baltimore's D allowed just 14.8 points per game, 299.4 yards per game, and held opponents to a 27% third-down conversion rate. That's elite territory.
The 14-point spread reflects the gulf in talent and motivation between these teams. The Ravens' surging defense should shut down the Jets' middling offense, and Lamar's dual-threat ability will carve up a New York defense that ranks 27th in points allowed. Baltimore needs a statement win to build momentum, and the Jets have no answers. M&T Bank Stadium will be rocking on a sunny Baltimore Sunday, and the Ravens should dominate from the opening kickoff. This could get ugly fast. Baltimore covers the two-touchdown spread and sends the Jets packing with their ninth loss.
Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders 
(Sunday, 4:05 PM ET)
Records: Cleveland 2-8 (4th AFC North) | Las Vegas 2-8 (4th AFC West) | Storyline: Battle of NFL's basement dwellers | QB: Shedeur Sanders starting for CLE (Dillon Gabriel in concussion protocol), Geno Smith starting for LV
This is a game that matters more for 2026 draft positioning than playoff hopes. The Browns are 2-8 with the 29th-ranked scoring offense (16.2 PPG, just 162 total points). Cleveland's defense ranks 18th (23.4 PPG allowed, 234 points surrendered) and has shown "shockingly dominant" stretches at times, but the offense is so anemic it doesn't matter. Quarterback Shedeur Sanders will start with Dillon Gabriel in concussion protocol. The Browns' season ended weeks ago.
Las Vegas is equally bad at 2-8. The Raiders rank 31st in scoring at 15.5 points per game and 30th in total yards at 290.4 per game. They've managed just 16 total touchdowns (4 rushing, 12 passing) with a -4 turnover ratio. The offense has generated only 164 first downs compared to 195 allowed by the defense. Quarterback Geno Smith was acquired from the Seahawks in the offseason and reunited with former Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, who now leads the Raiders. But the reunion hasn't produced results - this offense is near the bottom of the league in every category.
What do you get when the 29th-ranked offense plays the 31st-ranked offense? An ugly, low-scoring slog through the desert. Cleveland scores 16.2 points per game, Las Vegas scores 15.5 - that's a combined 31.7 PPG between two teams. The total on this game should be in the low 40s, and it might not even hit that number. Both defenses are middling (18th and middle-of-the-pack respectively), but when neither offense can move the ball, points are hard to come by. Expect a game filled with punts, three-and-outs, and field goal attempts. This is the kind of game that makes you appreciate elite offenses. For fans of defensive football and ugly slugfests, enjoy. For everyone else, there are eleven other games to watch this week.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Arizona Cardinals 
(Sunday, 4:05 PM ET)
Records: Jacksonville 6-4 (2nd AFC South) | Arizona 3-7 (4th NFC West) | Line: JAX -2.5 (road favorites) | Injuries: Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX) OUT - ankle, Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI) OUT - appendicitis
The Jaguars are in the thick of the AFC South race at 6-4 under first-year head coach Liam Coen. Jacksonville ranks 13th in scoring at 24.0 points per game with a balanced attack: 1,275 rushing yards and 2,151 passing yards. Trevor Lawrence has thrown for 2,151 yards with 11 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. The defense ranks 12th in points allowed at 22.6 per game (226 total points) with 26 sacks. This is a solid, well-coached team that's trying to chase down the Colts (8-2) in the division. However, they're without top wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. due to an ankle injury, which is a significant blow to the passing game.
Arizona is struggling at 3-7, last in a competitive NFC West. The Cardinals rank 20th in scoring at 22.4 PPG with 25 total touchdowns. The defense ranks 19th in points allowed (23.9 PPG) but does create some turnovers - they rank 6th in the NFL with 13 takeaways. However, they've surrendered 27 touchdowns including 3 defensive scores, and they only average 2.0 sacks per game (ranked 24th). In Week 9, they allowed the Cowboys to score on 5 of their first 6 possessions. The Cardinals are also missing their star rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., who's out with appendicitis.
Both teams are dealing with key offensive injuries, which should make this a lower-scoring, grind-it-out affair. The Jaguars are 2.5-point road favorites, which shows respect for their overall roster quality and playoff positioning. Jacksonville's defense (12th in points allowed) should be able to contain an Arizona offense that's missing its top weapon. The Cardinals' 6th-ranked turnover creation is the X-factor - if they can force Lawrence into a couple of mistakes, they have a shot. But the Jaguars need this game to keep pace in the AFC South, and their balanced attack should be enough to win on the road. Jacksonville escapes with a close victory, though the spread might be a sweat.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys 
(Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Records: Philadelphia 8-2 (1st NFC East, 1st in NFC Conference) | Dallas 4-5-1 (2nd NFC East) | Line: PHI -4.5 (road favorites) | Week 1: Eagles defeated Cowboys 24-20 in chippy, weather-delayed game
Get ready for fireworks. The Eagles-Cowboys rivalry is one of the nastiest in the NFL, and this NFC East showdown has massive division implications. Philadelphia enters at 8-2, leading not just the division but the entire NFC Conference. The Eagles rank 16th in scoring at 23.4 PPG, which seems modest, but they're efficient and disciplined. Jalen Hurts has thrown for 1,995 yards with 16 touchdowns and only 1 interception - that touchdown-to-interception ratio is absurd. The Eagles rushed for two TDs in their Week 1 victory over Dallas. The defense ranks 8th in points allowed (20.1 PPG, just 201 total points) and just shut down Jared Goff and the Lions 16-9 in Week 11 on Sunday Night Football. This is a complete team firing on all cylinders.
Dallas presents a fascinating paradox. The Cowboys rank 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 29.6 points per game with 296 total points. Dak Prescott has thrown for 2,587 yards with 21 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. The offense is explosive with 34 total touchdowns. But here's the problem: they rank 31st in points allowed at 29.3 per game (293 total points surrendered). They're essentially a .500 team (4-5-1) because their elite offense is completely canceled out by their catastrophic defense. The point differential tells the story: +3. They score 29.6, allow 29.3. That's not sustainable.
When these teams met in Week 1, it was a chippy affair. The Eagles won 24-20 in a weather-delayed game that was described as "full of skirmishes." Jalen Carter was ejected early for spitting on Dak Prescott. This is one of the NFL's nastiest division rivalries, and the rematch at AT&T Stadium should be equally heated. The matchup favors Philadelphia: the Eagles' 8th-ranked defense (20.1 PPG allowed) versus Dallas's 31st-ranked defense (29.3 PPG allowed) is a massive disparity. Jalen Hurts' ball security (1 INT) versus the Cowboys' porous defense should allow Philadelphia to control this game. Dallas can score, but can they stop the Eagles? History suggests no. Philadelphia wins and covers the 4.5-point spread on the road.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints 
(Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
Records: Atlanta 3-7 (3rd NFC South) | New Orleans 2-8 (4th NFC South) | Line: ATL -2.5 (road favorites) | Injury: Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) season-ending ACL surgery, Kirk Cousins starting
This NFC South basement battle features two teams whose seasons are effectively over. Atlanta is 3-7 despite having the NFL's best total defense, allowing just 244 yards per game (ranked 1st) and 135 passing yards per game (also 1st). The Falcons rank 6th in rushing (136.5 YPG) and 13th in passing yards. So why are they 3-7? Because they can't score. Atlanta ranks 26th in the NFL at 19.0 points per game. Their elite defense and strong running game aren't enough when the offense can't find the end zone. Michael Penix Jr. is undergoing season-ending ACL surgery, so Kirk Cousins takes over at quarterback for the final six games.
New Orleans is even worse at 2-8 under head coach Kellen Moore. The Saints rank 30th in scoring at 15.5 points per game with just 155 total points through ten games. They've managed only 2,972 total yards (928 rushing, 2,191 passing). The defense ranks 21st in points allowed (25.0 PPG, 250 total points) and allowed 21.5 PPG and 313.2 yards per game over a six-game stretch earlier this season. This is a team with no identity and no direction. The offense is putrid, the defense is mediocre, and they're playing for draft position.
When the NFL's best defense (Falcons: 244 YPG allowed) faces the 30th-ranked offense (Saints: 15.5 PPG), the result should be predictable. Atlanta's defensive dominance will suffocate New Orleans' anemic attack. The question is whether the Falcons' offense can score enough to win comfortably. Kirk Cousins is a capable veteran who should be able to move the ball against the Saints' 21st-ranked defense. This will be a low-scoring, ugly affair - both teams struggle to score, but Atlanta's elite defense gives them a significant advantage. The Falcons should grind out a victory on the road, though the 2.5-point spread reflects how bad both teams are. Expect something like 20-13 Falcons.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams 
(Sunday, 8:20 PM ET - SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL)
Records: Tampa Bay 6-4 (1st NFC South) | LA Rams 8-2 (1st NFC West, tied for 3rd-best record in NFL) | Line: LAR -6.5 | Storyline: Baker Mayfield returns to face former team, first QB matchup between #1 overall picks Stafford (2009) and Mayfield (2018)
Sunday Night Football delivers a clash of first-place teams with contrasting momentum. Tampa Bay is 6-4 and leads the NFC South, but they're on a two-game losing streak that's tightened the division race - the Panthers are just one game back at 5-5. The Buccaneers rank 10th in scoring at 25.2 PPG (252 total points) with 346.5 yards per game. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,365 yards with 17 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. The defense ranks 21st in points allowed at 25.0 PPG (250 total points). Tampa Bay has the offense to compete, but their recent struggles and defensive issues are concerning.
The Rams are rolling at 8-2, riding a five-game winning streak. Los Angeles ranks 6th in scoring at 27.2 PPG with a balanced 1,140 rushing yards and 2,557 passing yards. Matthew Stafford has been absolutely elite, throwing for 2,557 yards with an NFL-leading 27 touchdowns against just 2 interceptions. That 27:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is historic - he's on pace to become the first quarterback since Tom Brady in 2021 to throw 30 touchdowns in his team's first 11 games. The Rams' defense has been outstanding recently, allowing only 172 points (the fewest in the NFL over recent stretches) and just 16 total touchdowns. This is a complete team on both sides of the ball.
The storylines are compelling. Mayfield played for the Rams in 2022, filling in for an injured Stafford, and he's called Stafford the "best, purest passer" in league history. This is the first-ever matchup between two former #1 overall picks - Stafford in 2009, Mayfield in 2018. The Rams have won two games over top division rivals during their five-game winning streak, while the Bucs have lost two straight. The home team at SoFi Stadium has every advantage: better record, momentum, home field, and quarterback play. Stafford's 27 touchdowns versus Mayfield's 17 tells you everything you need to know. The Rams should control this game from start to finish. Los Angeles covers the 6.5-point spread and makes a statement in primetime.
Carolina Panthers at San Francisco 49ers 
(Monday, 8:15 PM ET - MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL)
Records: Carolina 5-5 (2nd NFC South) | San Francisco 7-4 (3rd NFC West) | Line: SF -6.5 | Playoff Implications: Both teams fighting for Wild Card spots
Monday Night Football closes out Week 12 with a game that has significant Wild Card implications for both teams. Carolina is 5-5 and sits in second place in the NFC South, just one game behind the Buccaneers (6-4). The Panthers rank 28th in scoring at 18.8 points per game with just 207 total points through 11 games. That's an anemic offense that's managed only 23 touchdowns. However, their defense ranks 13th in points allowed at 22.6 PPG (249 total points), and that defensive competence has kept them in games. The Panthers are scrappy and find ways to win close games - they forced overtime against the Falcons in Week 11 and won on a field goal. This is a team that competes hard even when the offense struggles.
San Francisco is 7-4 and third in the hyper-competitive NFC West behind the Rams (8-2) and the Seahawks (7-3). The 49ers rank 15th in scoring at 23.7 PPG with a balanced 1,043 rushing yards and 2,937 passing yards. They've scored 28 touchdowns. The defense has been inconsistent, allowing 3,882 total yards and 30 touchdowns (8 rushing, 21 passing, 1 return). They've recorded 19 sacks but need to create more consistent pressure. In Week 11, the 49ers easily handled the Cardinals despite quarterback Jacoby Brissett setting an NFL record with 47 completions. San Francisco needs wins to stay in the NFC West race and potentially catch the Seahawks and Rams.
The Panthers' offense is the worst of any team with a winning record. Scoring 18.8 points per game simply isn't sustainable in today's NFL, but their 13th-ranked defense keeps games close. The 49ers' more balanced attack (23.7 PPG offense) should be able to exploit Carolina's offensive limitations by controlling time of possession and field position. At Levi's Stadium on Monday night with the home crowd behind them, San Francisco has every advantage. The 6.5-point spread feels reasonable - the 49ers are the better team, but the Panthers are scrappy and won't go down easy. San Francisco should win, but Carolina's defensive competence will keep it within a touchdown. 49ers 24, Panthers 17.
WEEK 12 SUMMARY: This Sunday and Monday slate features everything from historic rookie performances (Drake Maye), to elite quarterback matchups (Stafford vs. Mayfield, Mahomes vs. the Colts), to NFC East hatred (Eagles-Cowboys), to basement battles that make you appreciate good football. The Patriots and Colts look like the class of the AFC, while the NFC is wide open with the Eagles, Rams, and Bears all making strong cases. Injuries continue to shape the season - Burrow, Penix Jr., and several key skill players are sidelined. The playoff picture is crystalizing, and Week 12 will go a long way toward determining who's in and who's out. Buckle up for thirteen games of football over four days.
