SOCCER Analysis

Everyone's writing off Fulham because of that 0% away win rate, but they're missing the bigger picture. That road record is misleading - they've been competitive in most away fixtures, just couldn't close games. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace at home isn't the fortress people think. Seven wins in eighteen games tells the real story.

The market's overcorrecting on Palace after their decent recent form. Fulham's actually got more quality in their squad top to bottom, and they're due for variance to swing back their way on the road. Palace relies too heavily on individual moments from Eze and Olise - when those don't come, they look ordinary.

Selhurst Park atmosphere will be there, but Fulham's shown they can handle hostile environments better than their record suggests. They've been unlucky more than genuinely poor away from home.

Palace's home advantage is being overpriced here. The talent gap isn't what the odds suggest.

**Take: Fulham +105 or better. If you can't get plus money, pass.**

Here's what matters: Liverpool at Anfield is a completely different animal than Liverpool anywhere else this season. They're unbeaten at home in their last eight, while Leeds hasn't won away from Elland Road in over two months.

The eye test backs up those numbers. Liverpool's pressing intensity at Anfield forces mistakes that turn into easy goals - exactly what a defensively fragile Leeds side can't handle. Klopp's boys have found their rhythm in front of the Kop, creating chances in bunches even when they're not clinical.

Leeds' recent form shows a team that fights hard but lacks the quality to punish opponents when chances come. That 0% away win rate isn't some statistical fluke - they're genuinely struggling to create dangerous moments on the road.

The -180 line feels light considering Liverpool's home dominance and Leeds' away struggles. This screams comfortable home victory with goals flowing.

**Take: Liverpool -1.5 goals. They win this by multiple scores.**

**OVER 2.5 is the play here.**

That 2.5 total is sitting right on the most crucial number in soccer betting, and the juice is begging you to take the under. Books know casual money hammers unders on low totals - don't be that guy.

Brentford at home is a different animal than their road form suggests. They've been in shootouts lately, and their defensive discipline cracks when they need to be aggressive in front of their crowd. Spurs are the perfect opponent for this - they'll give you goals both ways. Their defense has more holes than Swiss cheese, but they've got enough attacking talent to make Brentford chase.

The +135 on Brentford screams trap line to me. Tottenham's away record looks brutal on paper, but they're due for variance correction. More importantly, both teams playing loose creates the chaos we need.

Spurs concede, Brentford pushes forward, somebody gets caught on the counter. Rinse and repeat.

**Lean: OVER 2.5 goals**

Everyone's hammering City at -240 because they see that 13-1-4 record and think it's free money. But you're paying premium price for a team that's been sleepwalking lately.

The public loves backing favorites in spots like this - powerhouse visiting a relegation battler. Classic square play. But these odds assume City shows up with their A-game, and recent form suggests otherwise. That defensive solidity that built their early season dominance has gotten sloppy.

Sunderland at the Stadium of Light isn't the pushover everyone thinks. Home dogs in the Premier League have been printing money this season, especially when the line gets this inflated. The public sees Manchester City and immediately thinks blowout, but 7-7-4 Sunderland has shown they can hang with better sides.

City wins eventually, but not comfortably enough to justify laying nearly 2.5-to-1. The value screams Sunderland +240. Take the points and fade the obvious play.

**Sunderland +240**