On the surface, this looks like a complete mismatch. The New England Patriots are riding a nine-game winning streak and sit at 10-2 with the best record in the AFC. The New York Giants have lost six straight games and 12 consecutive road contests. They were the only team eliminated from playoff contention before Thanksgiving. So why are we interested in the Giants here?
Because the ATS numbers tell a completely different story. New York is 5-2 ATS over their last seven games and an incredible 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with New England. The Giants are also 4-1 ATS as 7.5+ point underdogs this season. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 0-2 ATS when favored by 7.5 or more points in 2025. That's a significant statistical edge that the market is overlooking.
New York has put together a 7-5-0 record against the spread this year despite their horrific 2-10 straight-up record. That gap between their ATS and SU records suggests a team that plays better than their record indicates, just not well enough to actually win games. Against the spread, though, they've been money.
Jaxson Dart has been the lone bright spot for the Giants this season. The rookie first-round pick from Ole Miss has shown flashes of being a franchise quarterback. He became the first QB in NFL history to rush for a touchdown in five consecutive games, and he's tied with reigning MVP Josh Allen for the most games with both a passing and rushing touchdown. After clearing concussion protocol, Dart is confirmed to start Monday night.
Drake Maye, meanwhile, is putting together one of the most impressive second-year quarterback seasons in NFL history. His combination of 2,500+ passing yards, 250+ rushing yards, 20+ TD passes, 70%+ completion percentage, and .800+ win percentage in his first 11 starts has never been accomplished by any quarterback. The MVP chants at Gillette Stadium are well-deserved.
Here's the reality about big favorites: they don't always cover. The Patriots have been dominant this season, but covering a touchdown-plus spread against a divisional rival on Monday Night Football is a different challenge. New England's dominance has come largely through efficient play and avoiding mistakes, not blowing teams out.
The Giants have nothing to lose. They're playing for pride, for draft positioning evaluation, and for Dart's development. Teams in that situation often play loose and aggressive. Dart has the dual-threat ability to extend plays and create explosive opportunities that can keep games closer than expected.
The historical head-to-head ATS record is impossible to ignore. When the Giants are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with New England, that's not a coincidence. There's something about this matchup that consistently produces closer-than-expected games. Whether it's familiarity, motivation, or simply statistical variance, the trend is undeniable.
Monday Night Football creates unique pressure on favorites. The entire football world is watching, and the Giants are getting a touchdown. That's a lot of points to lay in primetime against a team with a talented rookie quarterback who can create with his legs. The Patriots haven't been in this exact spot often this season, and their 0-2 ATS record as 7.5+ point favorites suggests they struggle to cover big numbers.
New England's offense has been excellent, but they're not a team that runs up scores. They win methodically, control the clock, and protect leads. That style of play is perfect for winning games but doesn't always result in blowouts. A 24-17 or 27-20 Patriots win wouldn't surprise anyone, and both of those scores see the Giants covering +7.5.
The coaching mismatch is obvious, but Mike Kafka has shown he can scheme up competitive game plans even with limited talent. The Giants have been within one score in several losses this season, and their offensive creativity with Dart has given them a fighting chance in games they had no business being competitive in.
Gillette Stadium will be rocking for this Monday Night Football matchup, but the Giants are used to playing in hostile environments. Every road game has been hostile for them this season, and they've covered the spread more often than not despite the losses. The primetime atmosphere might actually help New York play loose rather than tight.
For Dart, this is a showcase opportunity. A competitive performance against a legitimate Super Bowl contender on Monday Night Football would be a significant step in his development. He's already proven he belongs in this league. Now he gets to show it on the biggest stage of the regular season against one of the league's best defenses.
The Patriots are rightfully heavy favorites, and they should win this game. But winning and covering are two different things. New England needs to beat the Giants by more than a touchdown to cover, and that's asking a lot against a team that has consistently covered spreads this season, especially in this specific matchup.