Thursday Night Football Deep Dive: Ravens at Dolphins
Posted: October 30, 2025, 2:00 PM ET
Thursday Night Football brings us a matchup between two desperate teams trying to salvage their seasons. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins in a game where both teams enter with losing records and dwindling playoff hopes. This isn't the primetime showcase anyone expected in October, but it's loaded with storylines, statistical intrigue, and implications for the rest of the 2025 season.
The Big Picture: Two Teams at Crossroads
Baltimore sits at 2 and 5, a record that feels impossible given the talent on their roster. The Ravens are third in the AFC North and 0 and 2 on the road this season, which makes this trip to Miami even more critical. They're coming off a 30 to 16 victory over the Chicago Bears that snapped a losing streak, but they remain well below expectations. Miami is somehow worse at 2 and 6, sitting third in the AFC East and 1 and 2 at home. The Dolphins just rolled Atlanta 34 to 10, so they're coming in with some momentum despite their terrible record.
The spread has Baltimore favored by 7.5 points, with 52 percent of the betting public backing the Ravens. The total sits at 51 points, which is notably high for a Thursday night game where teams typically struggle offensively due to short preparation time. The market is telling us that despite both teams' defensive issues, there's confidence in the offenses to move the ball.
Lamar Jackson Returns: The Game Changer
The biggest storyline is Lamar Jackson's return from a three game absence due to a hamstring injury. Jackson is no longer listed on the injury report and will start for Baltimore after missing critical games. The two time MVP has been practicing at full strength and told reporters he's 100 percent healthy. Through the games he played this season, Jackson threw 10 touchdown passes with just one interception, showing he can still be surgical when healthy.
Jackson's return changes everything for Baltimore's offense. When he's on the field, he's a legitimate dual threat who makes defenses account for him on every snap. Miami's defense ranks near the bottom of the league in multiple categories, and Jackson's mobility will exploit their inability to contain mobile quarterbacks. The Ravens had their full 53 man roster available for Tuesday's practice, which is the first time all season they've been this healthy heading into a game.
Derrick Henry: The Workhorse Back
Running back Derrick Henry has been one of the few bright spots for Baltimore this season. He's rushed for 510 yards with six touchdowns through seven games, and he's just 67 yards away from reaching 12,000 career rushing yards. Henry is averaging solid yardage per carry and remains a punishing downhill runner who wears defenses down in the second half. Against a Miami run defense that's been inconsistent, Henry should see heavy volume and create opportunities through play action.
The combination of Jackson and Henry gives Baltimore one of the most dangerous rushing attacks in football when both are healthy. Miami will have to commit extra defenders to stop the run, which opens up the passing game. If the Ravens can establish Henry early and force Miami into obvious passing situations, they'll control the game flow.
Miami's Quarterback Situation
Tua Tagovailoa will start for Miami despite being listed on the injury report with a thumb issue. Through eight games this season, Tua has thrown for 1,518 yards with 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. That touchdown to interception ratio is concerning for a veteran quarterback, especially the 10 picks. Even more troubling is Tua's performance on passes in the middle of the field. He's completing just 9 of 19 attempts on throws of at least 11 air yards in the middle, and he's thrown 5 of his 10 interceptions on those attempts. That tells you Tua is forcing throws into coverage and making bad decisions under pressure.
The Dolphins beat Atlanta 34 to 10 last week, and Tua threw four touchdowns in that game. But Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in football, and Baltimore is a significant step up in competition. If the Ravens can generate pressure and force Tua into difficult throws, the turnovers will come. Miami's offensive line has struggled to protect him consistently, which plays right into Baltimore's hands.
Miami's Injury Concerns
The Dolphins are dealing with significant injury issues heading into Thursday night. Starting tight end Julian Hill has been ruled out with an ankle injury. Starting safety Ashtyn Davis is doubtful with a quadricep issue. Four more Dolphins are questionable: starting linebacker Bradley Chubb with shoulder and foot problems, wide receiver Dee Eskridge with a shoulder injury, cornerback Jason Marshall Jr with a hamstring injury, and safety Ifeatu Melifonwu with a thumb injury.
Those injuries hit Miami's defense hardest, particularly in the secondary and linebacker corps. Baltimore's passing attack should be able to exploit the depth issues, especially if Jackson has time to scan the field. Miami's already thin defense becomes even more vulnerable when key starters are out or limited.
Historical Context and Matchup Trends
Baltimore is 2 and 5 against the spread this season, which means they're not meeting market expectations. They're 0 and 2 ATS on the road, which creates skepticism about laying 7.5 points in a hostile environment. Miami is 4 and 4 ATS overall and 2 and 1 ATS at home, which suggests they play competitive football in front of their crowd even when losing. Thursday night games historically favor the home team due to short travel and preparation advantages.
The total of 51 points is the highest for any Thursday night game this season. Both teams rank near the bottom in defensive efficiency, and both offenses have shown they can score when clicking. Baltimore's games have trended higher scoring all season, and Miami just hung 34 points on Atlanta. The conditions are set for an offensive shootout if both quarterbacks protect the football.
Key Matchups to Watch
The battle in the trenches will determine this game. Can Miami's defensive line generate pressure on Jackson without blitzing, or will they need to bring extra rushers and risk getting beat on the edges? Baltimore's offensive line has been solid in pass protection, and if Jackson has time, Miami's secondary doesn't have the personnel to cover Ravens receivers for extended plays.
On the flip side, can Baltimore's defense force Tua into mistakes? The Ravens need to generate pressure up the middle and make Tua uncomfortable. If they can get him rattled early and force a couple turnovers, Miami's offense will struggle to keep pace with Baltimore's balanced attack.
Special teams could also play a factor. Field position battles matter on Thursday nights when offenses are operating on limited preparation. A big punt return or a missed field goal could swing momentum in a game between two fragile teams.
The Playoff Implications
Neither team can afford another loss if they want to stay in the playoff conversation. Baltimore at 2 and 5 is already facing an uphill battle in a competitive AFC North. A loss drops them to 2 and 6 and likely eliminates any realistic playoff hopes. Miami at 2 and 6 is in the same boat. The AFC East isn't strong this year, but falling to 2 and 7 would effectively end their season in October.
For Baltimore, this is a statement game. They need to show they can win on the road and that Jackson's return stabilizes their offense. For Miami, it's about proving they can compete against quality opponents at home. Both teams are desperate, which should create an intense, physical game with playoff level urgency despite the poor records.
Final Thoughts
This game projects as a higher scoring affair than typical Thursday night matchups. Baltimore's offense should be significantly better with Lamar Jackson back at full health, and Derrick Henry provides the ground game balance to control clock. Miami's defensive injuries create opportunities for the Ravens to exploit mismatches, particularly in the passing game.
Miami needs Tua to play turnover-free football and hit explosive plays down the field. If the Dolphins can score early and force Baltimore into a pass-heavy game script, they have a chance. But Baltimore's talent advantage, health, and desperation make them the more complete team in this matchup. The 7.5 point spread reflects the Ravens' edge, though Miami's home field and Baltimore's road struggles keep this from being a double digit line.
The total of 51 points feels about right given both teams' defensive vulnerabilities and offensive capabilities. This should be a competitive game into the fourth quarter with playoff implications hanging in the balance for both franchises.
