San Francisco 49ers @ 
Seattle SeahawksThe Story: Decimated 49ers Face Juggernaut
What San Francisco has accomplished this season borders on the miraculous. The 49ers clinched a playoff berth at 12-5 despite losing their three most indispensable players to season-ending injuries. George Kittle (Achilles, January 11), Nick Bosa (ACL, Week 3), and Fred Warner (fractured ankle) are all gone. That is your best tight end in football, your Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and your All-Pro linebacker. The fact that this team won 12 games without them speaks to Kyle Shanahan's coaching genius.
But now the 49ers walk into Lumen Field to face a Seattle Seahawks team that finished 14-3 and owns the NFL's number-one ranked defense, allowing just 17.2 points per game. This is not the Seahawks of old who won shootouts. This is a suffocating, physically dominant unit that has held 11 opponents under 20 points this season. For a 49ers offense that will be without Kittle's 75 catches and elite blocking, that is a nightmare matchup.
The season series was split 1-1, but context matters. San Francisco won Week 1 at Lumen Field 17-13 when they were healthy. Seattle won Week 18 in San Francisco 13-3, after the 49ers had already lost Kittle and were playing for nothing. The question is simple: can Brock Purdy, operating without his security blanket and behind a depleted offensive line, generate enough offense against the league's best defense? The Seahawks are 7-point favorites. Vegas believes the answer is no.
Week 1 @ Seattle: 49ers 17, Seahawks 13 (SF had Kittle, Bosa, Warner)
Week 18 @ San Francisco: Seahawks 13, 49ers 3 (SF missing Kittle, Warner)
Combined Score: 49ers 20, Seahawks 26 in two meetings
Key Trend: Both games hit the UNDER (44.5 total)
The Star Power Comparison
San Francisco 49ers (12-5)Seattle Seahawks (14-3)Brock Purdy has been remarkable when healthy. In nine games, he threw for 2,167 yards with 20 touchdowns against 10 interceptions, good for a 107.2 passer rating. The problem is he missed eight games with turf toe, and now he has to operate without George Kittle. In the 49ers system, Kittle is not just a receiving threat, he is the linchpin of the run game as an elite blocker. Without him, defenses can load up on Purdy knowing the intermediate middle of the field has lost its most dangerous weapon.
Then there is Deebo Samuel. Samuel was traded to Washington in March 2025, leaving San Francisco without their most versatile offensive weapon. Combine that with Brandon Aiyuk's ACL tear from 2024, and Purdy is essentially operating with his third and fourth receiving options as his primary targets. Seattle's defense, which just finished first in points allowed, is going to attack that weakness relentlessly.
For Seattle, this season has been a revelation. Sam Darnold, who was a journeyman quarterback washing out of his third team when he signed with the Seahawks in 2025, has posted 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns, the best numbers of his career. More importantly, he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who exploded in Year 2 to lead the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards. Smith-Njigba is a unanimous All-Pro, and the chemistry between him and Darnold has been electric. Against a 49ers defense that lost Bosa and Warner, this offense has every matchup advantage it could want.
Home Record: 8-0 this season
Points Allowed at Home: 14.3 PPG
Playoff Experience: Lumen Field crowd historically elite
Sam Darnold at Home: 70% completion rate, 17 TD, 5 INT
The Betting Line Breakdown
Seattle opened as 7-point favorites, and that line has held steady. The moneyline is steep at 49ers +280 / Seahawks -355, reflecting the market's belief that San Francisco has little chance to win outright. The total sits at 44.5, which is interesting given both meetings this season went under that number (the Week 1 game had 30 total points; Week 18 had just 16).
Seven points feels about right when you consider the circumstances. San Francisco is missing three of their five best players (Kittle, Bosa, Warner), while Seattle is healthy except for a minor oblique issue for Darnold that will not keep him out. The home field advantage at Lumen Field is real, and Seattle's defense has been dominant all season. The 49ers have covered spreads with their backs against the wall before, but this is asking a lot.
The under at 44.5 is intriguing. Both regular season games finished well under this number. Seattle's defense allowed just 17.2 PPG on the season, and the 49ers offense is significantly diminished without Kittle's presence. If San Francisco's game plan is to control the clock and play keep-away to limit Seattle's possessions, we could see a low-scoring grind. Seattle might be content to sit on a lead and let their defense dominate.
George Kittle: OUT - Torn Achilles (January 11, 2026)
Nick Bosa: OUT - Torn ACL (Week 3) - Was leading DPOY race
Fred Warner: OUT - Fractured ankle (IR)
Deebo Samuel: Traded to Commanders (March 2025)
Brandon Aiyuk: Reserve/Left Team (ACL from 2024)
Keys To Victory
For the 49ers to pull the upset: San Francisco needs Brock Purdy to have the game of his life. Without Kittle, Purdy will have to manufacture offense through intermediate routes and rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey (if healthy) as both a runner and receiver. The 49ers cannot win a shootout against this Seattle team, so they need to control the tempo, dominate time of possession, and force Seattle into third-and-long situations where their pass rush (even without Bosa) can get home. Defensively, containing Jaxon Smith-Njigba is paramount. If JSN gets rolling early, Seattle will score at will. San Francisco has to bracket him, make Darnold beat them with his other options, and hope for some uncharacteristic turnovers.
For the Seahawks to cover -7: Seattle needs to play their game and not let San Francisco slow the pace. Get the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba early and often. Attack the middle of the field where the 49ers will miss Fred Warner's coverage ability. On defense, put pressure on Purdy and make him uncomfortable in the pocket. Without Kittle's blocking help, Purdy will be dealing with a faster rush clock. If Seattle can force a couple of turnovers and capitalize with touchdowns, this game could get away from San Francisco quickly. The Seahawks have been a second-half team all season; if they can build a two-score lead by halftime, the 49ers do not have the firepower to come back.
Final Thoughts
This game comes down to one question: can talent overcome circumstances? The 49ers have Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and Kyle Shanahan's brilliant offensive mind. But they are missing George Kittle, Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. That is not a depth chart problem; that is a roster decimation. Seattle has the NFL's best defense, a healthy roster, an elite receiver in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and the loudest home crowd in football.
The 7-point spread feels fair. San Francisco has shown all season they can compete without their stars, winning 12 games through sheer coaching and scheme. But the playoffs are a different animal. The Seahawks defense will be the best unit the 49ers have faced since losing Kittle, and asking Purdy to carry the offense against this pass rush is a tall order.
The total of 44.5 is where the sharps will likely look. Both regular season meetings finished well under this number, and the conditions favor a low-scoring game. Seattle's defense is elite, San Francisco's offense is compromised, and the 49ers will want to control the clock rather than trade punches. Expect a physical, grinding playoff game where every possession matters and big plays are hard to come by.
