NFL Week 9 Complete Breakdown: Thirteen Games That Will Shape the Playoff Picture
Posted: November 1, 2025, 11:00 AM ET
Week 9 is where the NFL season truly reveals itself. We're past the early season noise, beyond the small sample sizes, and entering the stretch where real contenders separate from pretenders. This weekend brings us thirteen games across Sunday and Monday night, headlined by Patrick Mahomes visiting Josh Allen in Buffalo and a Sunday Night Football showdown between Seattle and Washington. Let's break down every single matchup with the depth and insight you need to understand what's really happening on the field.
The Headline Act: Chiefs at Bills 
(Sunday, 4:25 PM ET)
This is it. The game everyone circles when the schedule drops. Patrick Mahomes traveling to Buffalo to face Josh Allen in what's become the defining rivalry of this era. Kansas City enters at 5 and 3, which feels almost pedestrian for a Mahomes led team, but they're still right in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Buffalo sits at 5 and 2 and has owned Kansas City in regular season meetings lately, winning four straight against their playoff tormentors.
Mahomes is having another ridiculous season despite the record. He's second in the NFL with 2,099 passing yards through eight games, averaging 262 yards per game with a 67 percent completion rate. Most importantly, he leads the entire league with 17 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. The man simply doesn't turn the ball over, and he's added 280 rushing yards with four more touchdowns on the ground. When Mahomes extends plays with his legs, defenses break down.
Josh Allen counters with 1,560 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and four picks while completing 68 percent of his throws. He's averaging 222 yards per game through the air but adds five rushing touchdowns to go with 261 yards on the ground. Allen remains one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in football, capable of making throws no one else can make and running through defenders like a linebacker. The Bills' offense features James Cook, who just torched Carolina for a career high 216 rushing yards with two touchdowns in a 40 to 9 demolition.
The line has Kansas City as slight favorites at minus 2.5 points with a total of 52.5. That total reflects two explosive offenses that can score in bunches. Both teams are nearly at full strength, with Xavier Worthy back for Kansas City after missing time with a shoulder injury and Rashee Rice returning from his six game NFL suspension to give Mahomes another dynamic weapon. Buffalo's ground attack with Cook gives them balance that can control clock and keep Mahomes on the sideline.
The playoff history haunts Buffalo. Mahomes and the Chiefs have knocked the Bills out of the postseason four times since 2020, including that brutal 32 to 29 loss in the AFC Championship game back in January. But those four consecutive regular season wins for Buffalo prove they can beat Kansas City when it doesn't matter most. This game matters plenty for seeding and momentum heading into the back half of the season. Expect a shootout that comes down to the fourth quarter, with whoever has the ball last probably winning.
Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
The Bears come in at 4 and 3 after their four game winning streak got snapped by Baltimore's 30 to 16 beatdown last week. Caleb Williams is making his 25th career start and has thrown for 1,636 yards with nine touchdowns while completing 61.9 percent of his passes for a respectable 90.2 passer rating. Williams has completed 18 passes of 25 plus yards this season, which ranks second in the entire league. The second year quarterback can stretch the field, but he struggled against Baltimore's aggressive defense and faces the challenge of bouncing back on the road.
Cincinnati's quarterback situation is messy. Joe Burrow underwent toe surgery and is out indefinitely, leaving the Bengals relying on Joe Flacco to keep them afloat. In three starts this season, Flacco has a 100.1 passer rating with a 64.3 completion percentage, throwing seven touchdowns without a single interception. Those are quality numbers from a veteran who knows how to run an offense. But Flacco is listed as questionable with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder sustained on a hit in the loss to the Jets. If Flacco can't go, Cincinnati is in serious trouble.
The Bengals defense is historically bad right now. They're allowing a league worst 407.9 yards per game through eight contests. Even more alarming, they're dead last in run defense at 151.9 yards per game. Chicago should be able to establish the ground game and control clock, which plays perfectly into their offensive identity. Ben Johnson's offense with Caleb Williams can present major problems to any defense when they're clicking, and Cincinnati simply doesn't have the personnel to slow them down right now.
Chicago's injury report shows tight end Cole Kmet with a back issue, cornerback Tyrique Stevenson nursing a shoulder problem, and several receivers dealing with various ailments. Cincinnati counters with defensive end Trey Hendrickson questionable with a hip injury, which would be massive since he's their best pass rusher. The Bengals need to generate pressure on Williams to have any chance, and without Hendrickson, that becomes exponentially harder.
This projects as a Bears victory if they can protect Williams and let him work through his progressions. Cincinnati's defense can't stop anyone right now, and their offense becomes one dimensional without Burrow's elite play. The line should favor Chicago by at least a field goal, and the over looks tempting given Cincinnati's inability to get stops.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
NFC North showdown with major division implications. Detroit is rolling this season, and they get Minnesota coming in at 3 and 4 with major injury concerns. The Vikings are turning back to J.J. McCarthy at quarterback after he missed time with a high ankle sprain suffered in Week 2. This marks McCarthy's return as the starter after Sam Darnold filled in during his absence. Carson Wentz has reportedly been toughing out a torn labrum and fractured socket for two and a half weeks, which tells you how depleted Minnesota's depth has become.
Jared Goff just keeps dealing for Detroit. In his last game against Tampa Bay, he went 20 for 29 for 241 yards with a touchdown and a pick while absorbing four sacks. For the season, Goff is 152 of 203 for 1,631 yards with 15 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Those are Pro Bowl numbers from a quarterback who's finally getting the respect he deserves. The Lions offense features Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery forming one of the league's best running back tandems, which sets up Goff to take shots downfield when defenses stack the box.
Minnesota's defense has been breaking down in multiple areas, particularly against the run and against aggressive downfield passing. Detroit does both better than almost anyone, which creates a nightmare matchup for the Vikings. J.J. McCarthy is listed as questionable with the ankle issue, and if he can't go or isn't fully healthy, Minnesota's offense becomes predictable and one dimensional.
The Vikings injury report is lengthy. Fullback C.J. Ham is questionable with a hand problem, right tackle Brian O'Neill has a knee issue, linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel is dealing with neck soreness, tight end Josh Oliver is doubtful with a foot injury, left tackle Christian Darrisaw is questionable with knee problems, and cornerback Jeff Okudah has an undisclosed injury that makes him questionable. That's half a starting lineup compromised, and Detroit is too good to not exploit those weaknesses.
Detroit should control this game from start to finish. The Lions are healthier, more balanced, and playing better football on both sides of the ball. Minnesota needs multiple things to break right just to stay competitive, and this feels like a game where Detroit pulls away in the second half and covers whatever spread the market sets.
Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Bryce Young is back. The Panthers quarterback missed last week with an ankle sprain but practiced fully all week and has no injury designation for Sunday. Young was injured during Carolina's Week 7 win over the Jets and sat out the Week 8 loss to Buffalo. His return gives Carolina their starting quarterback, but it doesn't change the fact that they're massive underdogs visiting Lambeau Field.
Jordan Love is playing lights out for Green Bay. He threw for 360 yards and three touchdowns in his last game, completing 20 straight passes at one point to break a franchise record. For the first half of the season, Love is completing 70.9 percent of his passes for 1,798 yards with 13 touchdowns and just two picks. Those are MVP caliber numbers, and the Packers offense is humming. Green Bay will be without wide receiver Jayden Reed, which hurts, but linebacker Quay Walker, receiver Christian Watson, and receiver Dontavion Wicks are all questionable and could potentially return.
Carolina's offensive line took a massive hit when right guard Brady Christensen suffered a season ending Achilles injury against Buffalo. Losing starting offensive linemen is devastating for any team, but especially for a Carolina squad that was already struggling to protect Young. The Panthers need to establish some kind of ground game to take pressure off their young quarterback, but Green Bay's defense should be able to stack the box and force Young to beat them through the air.
The Panthers remain massive underdogs despite Young's return, and rightfully so. Green Bay is the better team at every position except maybe running back, and they're playing at home where the crowd creates a legitimate advantage. Love's hot streak should continue against Carolina's defense, and the Packers should cruise to a comfortable victory. This line will be double digits, and Green Bay should cover it.
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Mac Jones gets another start for San Francisco as Brock Purdy continues recovering from his toe injury. Jones is 4 and 2 in Purdy's absence, which is solid production from a backup quarterback. Purdy is closer to returning and is listed as questionable, meaning he could be available as a backup, but Jones will make his fifth consecutive start. The 49ers are 5 and 3 and still in the playoff mix despite their starting quarterback missing time.
The Giants quarterback situation took a dramatic turn. Rookie Jaxson Dart has seized the starting job with an 8 touchdown to 3 interception ratio, suggesting Daniel Jones is no longer the guy in New York. Dart's emergence gives the Giants something to build around for the future, but he's still a rookie learning on the fly against NFL defenses.
San Francisco's receiving corps is decimated. Brandon Aiyuk remains sidelined with a knee injury from last season, Ricky Pearsall has missed the past four games, and Jauan Jennings has been hampered by a series of injuries. Defensively, the 49ers lost Nick Bosa to a season ending knee injury in Week 3, which fundamentally changed their pass rush. Bryce Huff, center Jake Brendel, and defensive lineman Yetur Gross Matos have all been ruled out with hamstring injuries.
New York's injury list is just as concerning. Top receiver Malik Nabers underwent surgery Tuesday to repair his ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Rookie running back Cam Skattebo suffered a devastating leg injury with a dislocated ankle and broken fibula, ending his season. Those are two offensive weapons the Giants desperately needed, and now Dart has to operate with a depleted supporting cast.
The 49ers just allowed the most rushing yards in a single game of anyone in the NFL this season, which gives the Giants an opportunity to establish their ground game. But San Francisco's talent advantage should still be enough to control this matchup, especially if Mac Jones can limit turnovers and let the defense create short fields. This projects as a low scoring grinder with San Francisco pulling away late.
Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
The Chargers are rolling after destroying Minnesota 37 to 10, moving to 5 and 3 on the season. They're trying to string together consecutive wins for the first time since their 3 and 0 start. Justin Herbert was surgical against the Vikings, completing 18 of 25 passes for 227 yards and three touchdowns while adding 62 rushing yards. Rookie running back Kimani Vidal exploded for 117 yards and a score, giving Los Angeles the balanced attack they've been searching for.
Herbert leads the league in passing yards and has thrown 18 touchdowns with just four interceptions. He's playing at an MVP level, and Tennessee's short handed secondary creates a dream matchup for him to pad stats. The Titans are 1 and 7 after getting blown out 38 to 14 by Indianapolis, and they're showing no signs of life on either side of the ball.
Los Angeles' injury report shows cornerback Tarheeb Still ruled out with a knee issue, running back Hassan Haskins out with a hamstring problem, and safety Tony Jefferson sidelined with a hamstring injury. Safety Derwin James Jr. is dealing with an ankle issue but was limited in practice and should suit up. Guard Mekhi Becton has a knee problem but is also expected to play.
Tennessee's injuries are catastrophic. Three time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is week to week with a hamstring injury and has missed most of the past two games. Outside linebacker Arden Key has missed three straight with a quad muscle injury. Cornerback L'Jarius Sneed is on injured reserve. Safety Xavier Woods is ruled out with a hamstring problem. Wide receiver Calvin Ridley missed Week 8 with a hamstring issue and is trying to return, but he's questionable.
This is a mismatch on paper and should be a blowout on the field. Herbert could enjoy a monster statistical day against Tennessee's practice squad secondary. The Chargers should cover whatever spread the market sets, and this game could get ugly in the second half. Tennessee is tanking whether they admit it or not, and Los Angeles needs to take advantage of these gimme games to build momentum for tougher matchups ahead.
Denver Broncos at Houston Texans 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Denver is off to their best eight game start since 2016 with a 6 and 2 record, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix is a big reason why. In his last game against Dallas, Nix went 19 for 29 for 247 yards with four touchdowns and one interception while not getting sacked once. For the season, Nix is completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 1,803 yards with 15 touchdowns against five picks. Those are excellent numbers for a first year quarterback, and he's only getting better as the season progresses.
C.J. Stroud is coming off his best performance of the year against San Francisco, going 30 for 39 for 318 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He completed passes to nine different receivers despite missing star receiver Nico Collins. For Houston, both Collins and Christian Kirk are returning from injury related absences, with Collins having suffered a concussion in Week 7. Getting those weapons back transforms Houston's offense from one dimensional to explosive.
Denver's defense ranks fifth in the league in defensive EPA per play and leads the NFL in sacks. They generate pressure consistently and force quarterbacks into mistakes. But they'll be without cornerback Patrick Surtain II, who will miss multiple weeks after straining his left pectoral muscle. Safety P.J. Locke is questionable with a neck issue. Wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. is ruled out with a concussion, which removes a deep threat from Denver's passing attack.
Houston's defense is the best in football by the numbers, leading the league in both yards allowed at 266.9 per game and points allowed at just 14.7. They're stout against the run and generate pressure in the passing game, creating a nightmare matchup for a rookie quarterback making his first trip to Houston. This game will be decided in the trenches, and whichever offensive line holds up better will give their quarterback the chance to make plays.
This projects as a low scoring defensive battle. Denver's ability to rush the passer meets Houston's elite pass protection. The Broncos will test Stroud early and often, while Houston will dare Nix to beat them with his arm. The under looks attractive, and Houston should have a slight edge at home in a pick'em type game.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Indianapolis just demolished Tennessee 38 to 14 and now travels to Pittsburgh to face a Steelers team coming off a 35 to 25 loss to Green Bay. The Colts offense ranks first in the league in overall offense and scoring, led by running back Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL in rushing yards with 850, touchdown runs with 12, and total touchdowns with 14. Taylor is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and is absolutely destroying defenses on the ground.
Pittsburgh's quarterback situation is interesting because Aaron Rodgers is somehow playing for the Steelers now, and his 16 touchdown passes through seven games are the most ever by a Pittsburgh quarterback at this point in a season. That's legitimate production from a future Hall of Famer who's reinvigorated his career with a change of scenery. Rodgers knows how to pick apart defenses and exploit matchups, which he'll need to do against Indianapolis' solid defense.
The Colts injury report shows defensive ends Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis not practicing Wednesday with knee and groin issues. Wide receiver and return specialist Anthony Gould missed practice with a knee problem. Safety Nick Cross has a shoulder issue, receiver Josh Downs is dealing with a hip problem, cornerback Kenny Moore II has an Achilles tendon concern, and defensive tackle Grover Stewart is managing a foot injury. It's unclear if cornerback Jaylon Jones will be ready after opening his 21 day window to return from injured reserve with a hamstring injury.
Pittsburgh has safety DeShon Elliott ruled out with a knee injury. Veteran left guard Isaac Seumalo could return after leaving last week's game against Green Bay with a pec issue. Wide receiver Scotty Miller will likely sit out a second straight week after finger surgery. Reserve defensive lineman Daniel Ekuale's season is over after tearing his ACL.
This game features two teams heading in opposite directions. Indianapolis is clicking on all cylinders behind Jonathan Taylor's dominance, while Pittsburgh is trying to figure out how to stop high powered offenses. The Colts should be able to control clock with their ground game and wear down Pittsburgh's defense. Rodgers will need to be perfect to keep pace, and that's a lot to ask from a 41 year old quarterback on the road. Indianapolis should cover as small favorites.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots 
(Sunday, 1:00 PM ET)
Michael Penix Jr. returns under center for Atlanta after missing last week with a knee injury. Penix practiced fully all week and has no injury designation for Sunday, which is great news for the Falcons. Kirk Cousins started in Penix's place last week as Atlanta's offensive woes continued, but he'll move back to the backup role. Pass catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts are also officially off the injury report and will play.
Atlanta's defense will be without starters for Sunday. Defensive lineman Zach Harrison is out with a knee injury, and nickel corner Billy Bowman Jr. is out with a hamstring problem. Those are significant losses for a defense that's already struggling to generate consistent pressure and cover in the secondary. Over Atlanta's past two losses, they've combined for just 20 points total, falling steeply after back to back wins against Washington and Buffalo.
New England is a mess right now. They're barely competitive in most games and don't have the talent to hang with playoff caliber teams. Atlanta should be able to move the ball consistently through the air and on the ground, with Bijan Robinson getting featured touches against a Patriots defense that's been gashed by every quality running back they've faced.
This game is about Atlanta avoiding a trap. New England is desperate for any kind of positive momentum, and playing at home gives them a chance to catch a better team sleeping. But the Falcons are too talented to lose this game if they play with focus and execute their game plan. Penix's return stabilizes the offense, and Atlanta should control the game from start to finish. The Falcons will be significant favorites and should cover.
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams 
(Sunday, 4:05 PM ET)
Derek Carr has retired, which completely changes New Orleans' offense moving forward. This game marks the first NFL start for rookie quarterback Tyler Shough, who couldn't spark anything when he replaced Spencer Rattler during Sunday's 23 to 3 loss to Tampa Bay. The Saints are giving Shough the keys and hoping he can provide something, anything, to jump start an offense that's been anemic for weeks.
The Saints are dealing with devastating injuries across the roster. Kendre Miller, Erik McCoy, and Julian Blackmon are all on injured reserve, creating holes across multiple phases of offense and defense. Rashid Shaheed remains questionable and may not play. This is a depleted roster being held together with duct tape and hope.
Matthew Stafford is having an MVP caliber season for Los Angeles, sitting first in the entire league with 17 passing touchdowns while throwing just two interceptions. He's protecting the football and making throws that few quarterbacks can make. The Rams are coming off a bye week rested and healthy, and they could welcome back Puka Nacua from his ankle injury. The offense features Kyren Williams as the bell cow back along with Davante Adams joining Nacua to give Stafford elite weapons.
This is as close to a guaranteed Rams victory as you'll find on the NFL schedule. New Orleans has a rookie quarterback making his first career start with a depleted supporting cast traveling to Los Angeles to face one of the league's best offenses. The Rams should dominate in every phase, and this line will be massive. Los Angeles should cruise to a blowout win and cover whatever number Vegas hangs.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders 
(Sunday, 4:05 PM ET)
Jacksonville enters at 4 and 3 under first year coach Liam Coen and now has to navigate the loss of rookie wide receiver and cornerback Travis Hunter, who was placed on injured reserve after hurting his knee in practice Thursday. That's a devastating blow for a team that was counting on Hunter to contribute on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars injury report also shows tight end Quintin Morris questionable, linebacker Devin Lloyd questionable, receiver Brian Thomas Jr. questionable, safety Eric Murray questionable, and wide receiver Tim Patrick questionable.
Trevor Lawrence has completed 59 percent of his passes for 1,620 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions. His completion percentage ranks 34th among quarterbacks with at least two starts, and his quarterback rating is similarly low. Lawrence called the offense's issues very correctable and feels optimistic about where they're headed, but the Jaguars rank 25th in scoring at just 20.9 points per game. Something needs to change for this offense to reach its potential.
Las Vegas is 2 and 5 and going nowhere fast, but every player on their active roster will be available Sunday including stars Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers. That's significant because Crosby is one of the league's premier pass rushers, and Bowers is establishing himself as an elite tight end. The Raiders may not have the overall talent to compete with playoff teams, but they have enough weapons to make games competitive.
This projects as a toss up game between two teams with more questions than answers. Jacksonville should have the edge on paper, but Lawrence's inconsistency and all those questionable players create uncertainty. Vegas playing at home gives them a fighting chance, and Crosby could wreck the game if he gets going. This feels like a Raiders plus the points opportunity, with the potential for an outright upset if Bowers goes off.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders 
(Sunday Night Football, 8:20 PM ET)
Sunday Night Football brings us a fascinating matchup between two teams heading in different directions. Seattle is 5 and 2 coming off a bye week, which means they're rested and had two full weeks to prepare. Washington is 3 and 5 and trying to get back on track after inconsistent play. The Seahawks are slight favorites at minus 3, trimmed from minus 3.5 after confirmation that Jayden Daniels would practice fully.
Jayden Daniels is back and cleared from the injury report after missing time with a hamstring injury. He'll start Sunday night and try to spark Washington's offense. But the Commanders will be without Terry McLaurin, who's out with a quad injury. Losing your number one receiver in a primetime game is brutal, especially against a Seattle defense that ranks in the top 10 in most defensive metrics. Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil also left last week's game with a hamstring issue and is questionable.
Seattle ruled out five players for Sunday night. Veteran safety Julian Love is out with a hamstring problem. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is questionable with heel and hamstring issues. Defensive lineman Jarran Reed is questionable with a wrist injury. However, Devon Witherspoon is expected back from his knee issue, edge rusher Derick Hall should return from an oblique injury, and rookie fullback Robbie Ouzts looks ready to come back from an ankle problem.
The Seahawks have multiple advantages here. They're healthier, they had longer prep time, and their defense ranks among the league's best heading into primetime. Washington playing without McLaurin fundamentally changes their offensive identity, forcing them to find production from secondary receivers who aren't ready for that responsibility. Seattle should control this game from the opening kickoff and pull away in the second half. The Seahawks are the right side even giving three points on the road.
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys 
(Monday Night Football, 8:15 PM ET)
Monday night wraps up Week 9 with Arizona traveling to AT&T Stadium to face Dallas. The Cardinals are 2 and 5 after losing five straight games following their 2 and 0 start. They're coming off a bye week, which gave them extra time to prepare, but they'll be without Kyler Murray to start the game. Murray has been dealing with a foot injury that kept him out the previous two games, and coach Jonathan Gannon announced Murray won't start Monday night despite pushing to play.
Jacoby Brissett will make his third consecutive start for Arizona. He's been solid as the emergency starter but doesn't provide the dual threat playmaking ability that Murray brings. Gannon said Murray could still have a role during the game and is not going on injured reserve, so there's a chance Murray plays in relief if needed. Other Cardinals injuries include cornerback Garrett Williams, defensive lineman Walter Nolen III, and edge rusher B.J. Ojulari all limited in practice. Cornerback Will Johnson was limited Friday with a groin injury.
Dak Prescott is healthy and dealing for Dallas. He's completing over 70 percent of his passes for more than 2,000 yards with 16 touchdowns. No injury concerns were reported, which is huge for a Cowboys team that desperately needs wins. Dallas is 3, 4, and 1, stuck in mediocrity in a weak NFC East. The Cowboys offense has been explosive at home all season, and their defense should be able to create problems for Brissett without Murray's threat of extending plays.
This projects as a Dallas victory at home in primetime. Arizona without Murray starting means their offense becomes one dimensional and predictable. Brissett can manage games but can't carry an offense on the road against a desperate Cowboys team. Dallas should control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and win comfortably. The Cowboys will be significant favorites, and they should cover in front of their home crowd on Monday night.
Final Thoughts on Week 9
This weekend separates the legitimate playoff contenders from the teams that will be watching in January. The Chiefs and Bills matchup tells us everything about the AFC's hierarchy. Denver's trip to Houston shows whether the Broncos can win tough road games against elite defenses. Seattle visiting Washington on Sunday night reveals which team is real and which is smoke and mirrors. Every game matters at this point in the season, and the results will shape the playoff picture for the next two months. Watch the injury reports closely as Sunday approaches, because key players returning or being ruled out will shift lines and create opportunities for sharp bettors to find value.
