Two Team Total Unders, A Bullpen Game Over, And Only One Of Them Is Priced Honestly

Four plays today and three of them are unders, which is the shape this card keeps landing in. Two team totals, one game total and one over, first pitch running from 3:05 pm eastern in West Sacramento to 10:10 pm eastern in Los Angeles.

Five and a half units to win against 7.275 units of risk, so the break even sits at 56.95 percent. That is a normal bar for once, and it is spread across four tickets instead of resting on one steep price the way Tuesday did.

I want to be straight about something before the analysis starts. Two of these four are priced above what the season numbers support, and I am going to show you those season numbers rather than hide them in a paragraph near the bottom.

The Card And The Math

The three minus prices are unit figures for the amount being won. The Athletics over is a plus number, so that one is a unit of risk to win a unit. Nothing on this card carries more than 41 percent of the risk, which is the opposite of Tuesday.

How The Units Are Counted

Individually: the Reds under needs 60.00 percent, the Braves under 59.18, the Phillies and Astros under 52.38, the Athletics over 50.00. The card, 7.275 divided by 12.775, needs 56.95 percent.

The Reds Under Is A Bet On Yamamoto

The biggest ticket on the card runs through one arm, so start there. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has made 25 starts and thrown 165.0 innings with a 2.67 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, 161 strikeouts against 38 walks and opponents hitting .187. Under a baserunner and a half an inning is the number that matters for a team total, because a club that cannot get men on cannot score three.

What sits in the other box is a lineup built to strike out. Cincinnati has struck out 1,383 times this season, more than any team in baseball, on a .230 average and a .707 OPS that ranks 24th. They score 4.21 runs a game and they have already seen this ballpark twice in three days: 3 runs on Monday, 2 on Tuesday.

Behind Yamamoto the Dodgers have the sixth best staff ERA in baseball at 3.69 with a 1.17 WHIP and 1,335 strikeouts, so the innings after his are not a soft landing either.

A team total under does not care what Los Angeles scores. The Dodgers could win 12 to 3 and this ticket still cashes.

What Argues Against The Reds Under

Here is the number, up front where it belongs.

Cincinnati has been held to 3 runs or fewer in 32 of 71 road games this season, which is 45.07 percent. The price needs 60.00 percent. That is a fifteen point gap between the season baseline and what you are paying for, and there is no way to argue it away with splits.

There is a second problem and it is the venue. Yamamoto has a 3.28 ERA at Dodger Stadium and a 1.94 on the road. The building is his worse half. Anyone telling you this bet is helped by the park is not reading the split.

The Reds are also not a dead offense. They put up 10, 10 and 12 in three of their last dozen games. When they connect they connect.

What gets me to the window anyway is the strikeout total against a 0.90 WHIP, and the fact that this exact lineup has managed 3 and 2 in the two games it just played here.

The Braves Under Is The Thinnest Leg

This is the one I would talk you out of if you asked, and it is a unit and a half rather than three for that reason.

Atlanta has been held to 4 runs or fewer in 36 of 74 home games, 48.65 percent. The price needs 59.18. Their home games average 4.77 runs scored, which is above the number, not below it. On the season baseline this is a bad bet.

Two things push against that. The first is form: the Braves have scored 0 and 1 in their last two games, and 7 of their last 12 have finished at 4 or fewer. Last night Tampa Bay beat them 7 to 1 in this same series.

The second is the arm. Griffin Jax has a 3.82 ERA over 94.1 innings with 101 strikeouts, and he has been the better version of himself in his 14 home appearances, 3.60 with a 1.22 WHIP and a .231 opponent average. Behind him Tampa Bay has the eighth best staff ERA in baseball at 3.80 with a 1.15 WHIP, so the middle innings are not where this leaks either.

Against a starter in the 3.25 to 4.00 ERA band, a club goes under 4.5 about 62 percent of the time. That clears 59.18 by three points. Three points is the entire edge here and there is no point pretending it is more than that.

Sanchez At Home Against The Ballpark

This is the cleanest matchup on the card and the ballpark is the reason it is still priced at -110.

Cristopher Sanchez at Citizens Bank Park: 17 starts, 108.0 innings, a 1.83 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, 122 strikeouts and a .222 opponent average. On the road he is a different pitcher, 3.68 across 73.1 innings, which is exactly why the home number matters here. Season line is 29 starts, 181.1 innings, 2.58, with 207 strikeouts against 42 walks.

Hunter Brown goes the other way. He is at 3.31 over 87.0 innings with 93 strikeouts, and his split runs opposite to Sanchez: 2.67 on the road against 3.71 at home, with a 1.13 WHIP away from Houston. Both starters are pitching in their better half tonight.

The offenses are the middle of the league. Houston is 13th at 4.50 runs a game, Philadelphia 15th at 4.46. Neither one is the Cubs.

Now the case against, and it is the same case both ways: Phillies home games have gone over 8 in 43 of 73, 58.90 percent, and Astros road games have gone over in 41 of 70, 58.57 percent. Both splits say over. Citizens Bank Park has played big all year. The bet is that a 1.83 home ERA beats the building, and at -110 it only has to be right 52.38 percent of the time.

The Only Over, And Why It Is A Building

Two of the weakest offenses in the American League are in this game. Toronto is 29th in runs at 4.03 a game. The Athletics are 19th at 4.38. Add those together and you get 8.41, and the number is 9.5. On lineups alone this is an under.

It is not a bet on the lineups.

Games at Sutter Health Park have averaged 11.80 combined runs this season and 45 of 71 have finished over 9.5, which is 63.38 percent. The same Athletics on the road average 8.39 and go over only 36.00 percent of the time. That is a 27 point swing on the same roster, and it is the largest home and road split of any team number on this card.

The arms agree with it. Brady Basso has a 5.60 ERA at home across 17.2 innings with a 1.58 WHIP and a .321 opponent average, and he has started four games all year. Braydon Fisher is a relief pitcher making his ninth start, 70.1 innings across 69 appearances with 38 walks. Neither one is going six. The Athletics staff has allowed 828 runs, the most in baseball, on a 5.39 ERA.

The counter is Toronto. Blue Jays games go over 9.5 only 35.62 percent of the time, the lowest rate of any club on this card, and they scored 4 and 5 in the first two games of this series. If the Jays put up three again, the building cannot do this alone.

At +100 it needs to be right half the time. The park says 63.

Bottom Line

Five and a half units to win against 7.275 at risk, needing 56.95 percent, spread across four tickets rather than stacked on one.

The Reds under 3.5 is the biggest and it is a bet on Yamamoto's 0.90 WHIP against the highest strikeout total in baseball, played against a season road rate of 45.07 percent that does not support the price on its own. The Braves under 4.5 is the thinnest, three points of edge from a starter's ERA band and an offense that has scored one run in two days. The Phillies and Astros under is the one worth defending hardest: a 1.83 home ERA at -110 against a ballpark that keeps going over. The Athletics over is a bet on a building, not on two lineups that cannot hit.

If this day goes wrong it goes wrong in Atlanta, and it goes wrong because a home offense that averages 4.77 does what it usually does.

All four plays were on the verified record with their prices before first pitch, and all four get graded there whether they win or lose.

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