Six plays today and the headline one is a pitching bet, not a team bet. Chris Sale and Cristopher Sanchez start against each other at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 pm eastern, and the ticket is the first five innings under 4.5 at -300 for two units. That is six units of risk on five innings of baseball, which makes it the biggest single exposure on the card by a wide margin.
The whole card is 10.52 units to win against 17.43 at risk, a 62.36 percent break even. Yesterday was ugly. September 3 went 0-3 for minus 16.50 units, with Georgia Tech losing outright at -240, the Mariners run line dying 7-4 and the Rays getting shut out 6-0 in Texas. That is posted here in the same place a 3-0 day would be.
ON THIS CARD
The Card And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves/Phillies first 5 innings under 4.5 | -300 | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| Seattle Mariners minus 1 | -165 | 3.00 | 4.95 |
| Yankees/Padres under 7.5 | -120 | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Cleveland Guardians moneyline, game one | -129 | 1.50 | 1.94 |
| Boston Red Sox moneyline | -114 | 1.00 | 1.14 |
| Tampa Bay Rays moneyline | +102 | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Card | 10.52 | 17.43 |
Two tickets are 62.8 percent of the risk. The first five under is 6 units of the 17.43 and the Mariners run line is another 4.95. The four remaining plays together account for 6.48 units, and three of those are one unit tickets or close to it.
How The Units Are Counted
Five of the six prices are minus numbers, so the unit figure on those is the amount being won rather than the amount being put up. The first five under at -300 needs six units laid to win two. The Mariners at -165 need 4.95 to win three. The one plus price on the card is the Rays at +102, and there the unit figure is the amount being risked, so one unit back gets 1.02.
Individually the break evens run from 50.5 percent on the Rays to 75 percent on the first five under. As a card, 17.43 divided by 27.95 is 62.36 percent. That is a lower number than yesterday's 67.35 because the risk is spread across six games instead of concentrated on one football team, but it is still a card where the two big tickets decide the day.
Two Units On The First Five In Philadelphia
Braves and Phillies, first five innings under 4.5, -300, 2 units. This is the best pitching matchup on the board tonight and it is not close.
Chris Sale has made 24 starts, thrown 144 innings, and carries a 2.06 ERA with a 1.00 WHIP, 177 strikeouts against 28 walks and eight home runs allowed all season. Opponents hit .218 off him. Restrict it to the part of the game this bet actually covers and it gets better: across those 24 starts Sale has allowed 1.21 runs through five innings, and the combined first five total in his starts has averaged exactly 4.00 runs.
Cristopher Sanchez is the other half and he has been the more durable of the two. 28 starts, 175.1 innings, a 2.52 ERA with 202 strikeouts and 39 walks. He allows 1.71 runs through five in his own starts and the combined first five in those games has averaged 4.43.
Neither lineup is built to break that. Atlanta scores 4.66 runs a game on a .725 OPS and Philadelphia scores 4.51 on a .713. Through five innings specifically, the Braves average 2.49 runs scored and the Phillies 2.43. Add the two together and the generic Braves and Phillies game produces about 4.9 combined runs in five innings. Take out the generic starters and put in a 2.06 and a 2.52 ERA, and the number that matters lands at four.
What -300 Actually Asks For
Here is the part that deserves to be stated plainly rather than buried. -300 needs 75 percent to break even. The pitcher samples do not say 75 percent. In Sale's 24 starts the combined first five went four or fewer 15 times, 62 percent. In Sanchez's 28 starts it went under 15 times, 54 percent. Across all Braves games this season the number is 48.2 percent and across all Phillies games it is 49.3 percent.
So the ticket is not being bought because the historical rate clears the price. It is being bought because those two samples are each measured against every opponent and every opposing starter either man has faced, most of whom were not the other one. Sale's 62 percent includes starts where the opposing pitcher gave up four in the third. Tonight the opposing pitcher is a 2.52 ERA left hander. The overlap of the two best halves of those distributions is the argument, and whether it is worth 75 percent is a fair thing to disagree about.
What is not in dispute is the sizing. Six units at risk to win two is the most aggressive line on this card and the honest description of it is a high probability ticket at a price that gives back most of the edge.
Three Units On The Whole Number In Seattle
Seattle Mariners minus 1, -165, 3 units. Seattle is -225 on the full game moneyline and the standard -1.5 run line pays plus money, which is the market saying a one run Seattle win is very much on the table. Minus 1 sits between them. Seattle wins by two or more and it cashes, a one run win refunds, and it costs -165 rather than -225.
The reason to lay it is the visiting team. The Athletics have allowed 5.74 runs a game on a 5.44 team ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, the worst run prevention in baseball by a distance, and they are 55-86. Their first five innings allowed number is 3.17 a game against a league norm closer to 2.2. Kade Morris starts with a 9.82 ERA, a 2.11 WHIP and a .385 opponent average across 14.2 innings.
Logan Gilbert answers with a 3.42 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, 166 strikeouts in 160.1 innings and a .215 opponent average across 27 starts. In Gilbert starts the combined first five total has averaged 4.00 and he has allowed 1.70 runs through five himself.
The argument against is Seattle's own bat. The Mariners score 3.96 runs a game on a .686 OPS, the lowest run total of any team on this card, and they are 66-75. A team that scores under four a game is not a team you want needing two. That is why this is three units and not five, and it is the same ticket that lost yesterday.
Fried, Buehler And The Under In San Diego
Yankees and Padres under 7.5, -120, 2 units. Max Fried has a 2.80 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP and a .198 opponent average with three home runs allowed in 90 innings across 16 starts. Three. The Yankees behind him pitch to a 3.24 team ERA, the best number of any staff playing tonight.
Walker Buehler is the weak side of the matchup at a 4.66 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP, and that is the honest risk on the ticket. What holds it up is the park and the lineup he is facing. San Diego scores 4.24 runs a game and Petco has been a pitcher's park all season. In Yankees games the combined first five has averaged 4.34 runs, the lowest of any team in this study, and New York games have gone under 4.5 through five 59.3 percent of the time. Padres games have done it 57.9 percent.
Two of the four bullpens on the field tonight are top ten units, and 7.5 is the number where a Fried start becomes a bet on the first six innings rather than the ninth.
The Three Small Tickets
Cleveland Guardians moneyline, game one, -129, 1.5 units. This one has a trap in it, so it is worth being precise: the pick is game one of the doubleheader, 2:10 pm eastern, not the 7:15 nightcap. Cleveland is 70-70, Detroit is 64-75, and Cleveland pitches to a 3.74 team ERA. Keider Montero has been good for Detroit at a 3.24 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP, which is why this is a unit and a half and not a headline.
Boston Red Sox moneyline, -114, 1 unit. Boston is 76-65 against a 69-72 Baltimore team, and the price is basically a coin flip with a small tax. Ranger Suarez takes the ball at a 3.64 ERA against Shane Baz at 4.01 with 55 walks. Baltimore allows 4.69 runs a game, the second worst mark on this card, and Boston's .731 team OPS is the best of the twelve clubs here.
Tampa Bay Rays moneyline, +102, risking 1 unit. The only plus price on the card. Tampa Bay is 83-57 and Texas is 70-71, and the Rays are getting a plus number as the better team because they are on the road. Nick Martinez brings a 2.99 ERA over 26 starts. Trevor Williams has thrown 1.1 major league innings this season. Tampa Bay's 1.15 team WHIP is the best on the card.
What Can Beat This Card
The first five under is the obvious one, and not because of the pitching. It is the price. Paying -300 means the ticket is right three times in four just to stand still, and a single three run second inning ends it before either starter has done anything wrong. Sale has allowed eight home runs this season, but Citizens Bank Park is where the eighth one would go.
The second is the Mariners. Seattle scores 3.96 a game and this exact ticket lost 7-4 yesterday against the same opponent. Betting a below average offense to win by two is a bet on the other team being bad rather than on your team being good, and that works until the bad team scores seven.
The third is Buehler. A 4.66 ERA starter is one bad inning from putting the under 7.5 in a hole that Fried's side of the game cannot dig out of, because Fried does not get to pitch the other half.
How The Last Card Graded
September 3 went 0-3 for minus 16.50 units, the worst day on the record in a month. Georgia Tech lost the moneyline at -240 with five units on it, which is twelve units of risk gone by itself. The Mariners minus 1 lost 7-4 to the Athletics. The Rays moneyline lost 6-0 in Texas. Three plays, three losses, no argument to make about any of them.
Bottom Line
Six plays, 10.52 units to win, 17.43 at risk, 62.36 percent to break even. The card is built on two pitching matchups and one bad baseball team. Sale at 1.21 runs allowed through five and Sanchez at 1.71 is the best pair of starters on any board tonight, the price on their under is uncomfortable and it is being paid anyway. Gilbert against a staff allowing 5.74 a game is the reason for the whole number. Fried at a 1.00 WHIP in Petco is the reason for the 7.5.
Every one of these six is posted with the price and the unit size before first pitch, and graded on a verified record afterwards, including a 0-3 day. The full record is here.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for September 4?
Six MLB plays for 10.52 units to win. Braves and Phillies first five under 4.5 at -300 for 2 units, Mariners minus 1 at -165 for 3 units, Yankees and Padres under 7.5 at -120 for 2 units, Guardians game one moneyline at -129 for 1.5 units, Red Sox moneyline at -114 for 1 unit, and the Rays moneyline at +102 risking 1 unit.
How are the units counted on this card?
Every minus price is quoted as the amount being won, so -300 for 2 units means 6 units of risk. The one plus price on the card, the Rays at +102, is quoted as the amount being risked, so 1 unit risked returns 1.02. The card lays 17.43 units to win 10.52.
What does the card need to break even?
62.36 percent, which is 17.43 divided by 27.95. The first five under carries 34.4 percent of the risk by itself and the Mariners run line carries another 28.4 percent, so two tickets are almost two thirds of the day.
Why the first five innings instead of the full game total?
Because the bet is about the two starting pitchers and nothing else. Sale has a 2.06 ERA and allows 1.21 runs through five in his own starts. Sanchez has a 2.52 ERA and allows 1.71. The full game total drags four innings of two bullpens into the ticket, and the Phillies staff sits at a 3.99 ERA on the year.
What actually has to happen for the first five under 4.5 to cash?
Four combined runs or fewer through five innings. Five runs loses. There is no push because the line is a half number. In Sale starts this season the combined first five total has averaged exactly 4.00 and finished at four or fewer 15 times in 24 starts. In Sanchez starts it has averaged 4.43 and gone under in 15 of 28.
Is -300 too expensive for that?
It is the honest problem with the ticket. -300 needs 75 percent and the two pitcher samples say 62 and 54. The case for paying it is that both samples are being run against every opponent either pitcher has faced, and this is the one game where the two best of those starts happen at the same time.
Which Guardians game is the pick?
Game one only, the 2:10 pm eastern half of the doubleheader against Detroit, with Logan Allen against Keider Montero. The 7:15 pm nightcap is a different ticket and it is not on this card.
What is the Mariners minus 1?
A whole number run line. Seattle has to win by two or more runs, a one run win refunds the stake, and the price is -165 instead of the -225 full game moneyline. The Athletics have allowed 5.74 runs a game on a 5.44 team ERA and Kade Morris has a 9.82 ERA across his 14.2 innings.
How did the last card grade?
September 3 went 0-3 for minus 16.50 units. Georgia Tech lost the moneyline at -240 for 5 units, the Mariners minus 1 lost 7-4 to the Athletics, and the Rays moneyline lost 6-0 in Texas. That is the worst single card of the last month and it is posted here the same way a winning one would be.