Blake Snell has thrown 37.2 innings this season and nobody has hit a home run off him. Not one. He takes that into Great American Ball Park on Wednesday against a Reds lineup that has scored three runs or fewer in all five games it's played against the Dodgers this year, including 1 on Monday and 0 on Tuesday. That's the first ticket on this card, the under 8.5, and it sets the tone for the rest: five plays, and every one of them is a bet on the man on the mound.
5 plays, 10 units to win, 14.69 at risk. The biggest chunk of that risk sits in one building, Tropicana Field, where Nick Martinez carries both the Rays moneyline and the Athletics team total under.
ON THIS CARD
All Five Plays And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | First Pitch PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers at Reds under 8.5 | -120 | 2 | 2.40 | 54.55% | 3:40 pm |
| Milwaukee Brewers ML | -124 | 1 | 1.24 | 55.36% | 3:40 pm |
| Tampa Bay Rays ML | -173 | 3 | 5.19 | 63.37% | 3:40 pm |
| Athletics team total under 3.5 | -131 | 2 | 2.62 | 56.71% | 3:40 pm |
| San Diego Padres ML | -162 | 2 | 3.24 | 61.83% | 5:40 pm |
Four of the five go off at the same time, 3:40 Pacific, so most of this card is settled before the Padres throw a pitch in Denver. The Rays game alone carries 7.81 units of risk, a little over half the card, and both of those tickets want the same thing: Martinez keeping the A's quiet.
Dodgers And Reds Under 8.5: Snell Against Abbott
Here's the matchup straight off MLB's stat feed this morning.
| 2026 | Blake Snell, Dodgers | Andrew Abbott, Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 4 and 1, 1.91 | 6 and 11, 4.78 |
| WHIP | 1.09 | 1.46 |
| Home runs allowed | 0 in 37.2 innings | 24 in 154.1 innings |
| Strikeouts per nine | 12.19 | 7.00 |
| OPS against | .497 | .768 |
| Last time out | 5.2 innings, 1 earned at Miami | 2 innings, 7 earned at Milwaukee |
Snell's only made seven starts, so the sample's short, but look at what he's done since August 11. Six starts, never more than one earned run, and his pitch count has climbed every time out: 84, 90, 94, 99, 100, 101. He's stretched out now. The Dodgers have won five of his seven starts, and opponents have scored three or fewer in four of them.
The Reds have been flat against this team. They scored 3, 2 and 1 in Los Angeles last week and 1 and 0 in the first two games of this series. Cincinnati's hit .686 in OPS against right handers this year and a better .744 against lefties, which is the honest knock on this under, since Snell throws left handed. It hasn't mattered in the results so far.
Abbott's the part that makes this a two unit play and not a bigger one. Teams have scored 5.6 runs a game in his 30 starts, and his last one lasted two innings. What keeps him in range is the park split: at home his ERA is 4.64 with a 1.34 WHIP and a .694 OPS against, while on the road opponents have an .833 OPS off him. The wind's forecast at 7 miles an hour blowing in from left, and it's 76 degrees. The Dodgers do hit on the road, 5.33 runs a game, but they've scored exactly 4 in each of the first two games here.
Rays -173 And Athletics Under 3.5: Nick Martinez Against A Bulk Lefty
This is where most of the money is. Nick Martinez is 14 and 4 with a 2.92 ERA, and he walks almost nobody: 24 walks in 166.1 innings, 1.30 per nine. Tampa Bay is 21 and 7 in his 28 starts, and opponents have scored three runs or fewer in 17 of those 28.
| 2026 | Brady Basso, A's | Nick Martinez, Rays |
|---|---|---|
| ERA and WHIP | 3.86 and 1.39 | 2.92 and 1.07 |
| Starts | 5 of 23 appearances | 28 of 28 |
| Innings | 37.1 | 166.1 |
| Team record in his starts | 2 and 3 | 21 and 7 |
| Last outing | 4 innings, 0 earned vs Toronto, 68 pitches | 6.1 innings, 0 earned at Atlanta |
Martinez has already seen this lineup. On August 11 he threw a complete game against the A's, nine innings, four earned, in a 12 to 4 Rays win. Tampa Bay swept that series by a combined 30 to 14 and then won 2 to 1 on Tuesday night, so it's 4 and 0 against the Athletics this year.
Basso is a left hander who's mostly worked in relief. His last outing, four innings and 68 pitches, was his longest in his last ten appearances, which means the A's bullpen is going to cover a lot of this game. The A's road staff ERA is 4.49, and the Rays are 51 and 25 at home with four straight wins.
The A's under is the same bet from the other dugout. Away from home the Athletics hit .658 in OPS and score 3.80 runs a game, and they've been held to three or fewer in 40 of 76 road games. They scored one run on Tuesday.
Now the caveat, and it's a real one. Martinez's home and road splits are night and day: 1.99 ERA in 14 road starts, 3.92 in 14 home starts, with a .737 OPS against at the Trop. And the Rays hit left handed pitching worse, a .683 OPS against .758 off righties. Neither of those kills the play, but they're why the Rays price has to be judged on Martinez at home, not Martinez overall.
Padres -162: Robbie Ray At Coors Against Mason Adams
The Padres are 8 and 2 in their last ten and hold the third wild card spot at 82 and 69. The Rockies are 56 and 95 and 2 and 8 in their last ten. San Diego has won 9 of 11 against Colorado this season, though the Rockies won Tuesday's game 9 to 3.
| 2026 | Robbie Ray, Padres | Mason Adams, Rockies |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 12 and 8, 3.57 | 0 and 0, 3.38 |
| Starts and innings | 28 starts, 156.1 | 4 starts, 18.2 |
| Walks per nine | 4.66 | 4.34 |
| Home runs per nine | 1.21 | 2.41 |
| OPS against | .707 | .880 |
I won't pretend Ray's in form. His last two starts were 2.1 innings and 5 earned against the Yankees, then 5 innings and 5 earned in San Francisco, and San Diego is 3 and 4 in his seven starts since he joined them. The walks are the issue, 81 of them on the season, and Coors punishes free baserunners more than any park.
The ticket is really about Colorado. Adams has four starts this season and has given up five home runs in 18.2 innings, with right handed hitters posting a .969 OPS against him in a small sample. The Rockies' home staff ERA is 5.81, and they're 31 and 42 at Coors. Games there have averaged 11.37 total runs this season. The one thing working for the pitchers is the forecast: 10 miles an hour blowing in from left.
Brewers -124: Logan Henderson Against Jared Jones
This is the smallest ticket on the card and possibly the best pitcher on it. Logan Henderson has a 2.34 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP with 99 strikeouts and 15 walks in 88.1 innings. Hitters are managing a .542 OPS against him, and it doesn't matter which side of the plate they're on: .542 from the left, .541 from the right. Milwaukee is 12 and 4 in his starts, and opponents have scored three or fewer in 13 of those 16.
| 2026 | Logan Henderson, Brewers | Jared Jones, Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Record and ERA | 10 and 3, 2.34 | 4 and 6, 4.10 |
| WHIP | 0.78 | 1.17 |
| Strikeouts per nine | 10.09 | 10.51 |
| Team record in his starts | 12 and 4 | 8 and 10 |
| Last start | 5 innings, 0 earned vs Cubs | 7 innings, 0 earned at White Sox |
These two met on August 4 in Milwaukee. Henderson went six innings and allowed two earned with eight strikeouts. Jones lasted four and gave up three. The Brewers won 4 to 2.
Why only one unit? Because Jones is pitching well right now. His last two starts were 13 scoreless innings, and he's got the strikeout stuff to keep any lineup quiet for a turn through. PNC Park has also been a hitter's room this year, averaging 10.15 total runs a game, and the Pirates score 5.19 a game at home with a .775 OPS. Pittsburgh actually leads the season series 6 to 5, though the Brewers won Tuesday's opener 5 to 1. At 94 and 57, Milwaukee has the best record in baseball, and at -124 you're barely paying for it.
The Argument Against This Card
Martinez at home is a different pitcher. A 3.92 home ERA isn't bad, but it's not the 2.92 on the season line, and 7.81 units ride on him. If he has one of his rough home nights, both Tampa Bay tickets can lose together.
Snell's seven starts are a small sample, and the Reds hit lefties better than righties. Abbott has also given up seven runs twice in his last three starts.
Ray's walks at Coors are exactly how a -162 favorite loses to a 56 and 95 team, and his last two starts don't argue otherwise.
Card FAQ
What are the BetLegend plays for Wednesday September 16?
Five MLB plays. Dodgers and Reds under 8.5 at -120 for 2 units, Milwaukee Brewers moneyline at -124 for 1 unit, Tampa Bay Rays moneyline at -173 for 3 units, Athletics team total under 3.5 at -131 for 2 units and San Diego Padres moneyline at -162 for 2 units.
How much is the card risking?
Every price is laying juice, so the unit figures are the amount being won. The card is 10 units to win and 14.69 units at risk.
Why the under in Cincinnati?
Blake Snell has a 1.91 ERA and has not allowed a home run in 37.2 innings, and the Reds have scored three runs or fewer in all five games against the Dodgers this season, including 1 and 0 in the first two games of this series.
Why the Rays and the Athletics team total under together?
Nick Martinez is 14 and 4 with a 2.92 ERA, Tampa Bay is 21 and 7 in his starts and opponents have scored three or fewer in 17 of them. The Athletics have a .658 OPS on the road and have been held to three or fewer in 40 of 76 road games.
What is the case for the Padres at Coors Field?
The Rockies are 56 and 95 with a 5.81 home staff ERA, San Diego has won 9 of 11 meetings, and Mason Adams has allowed 5 home runs in 18.2 innings. Robbie Ray's recent form and walk rate are the risk.
Where can these plays be verified?
All five were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and they are graded there afterwards whether they win or lose.
All five plays were posted with their prices and unit sizes before first pitch on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and every one of them gets graded there, win or lose.