Houston and Texas Tech have both played Oregon State this month. Houston held the Beavers to 26 rushing yards and won by 13 at home. Texas Tech gave the same Oregon State offense 472 yards, 417 of them through the air, and won by 11. Tonight the Red Raiders are laying 7.5 points in Lubbock, and I'm taking the points.
1 play, 3 units to win, 3.3 at risk. No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech kicks at 5:00 Pacific on FOX.
ON THIS CARD
The Play And The Math
| Play | Price | To Win | Risk | Break Even | Kickoff PT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston +7.5 at Texas Tech | -110 | 3 | 3.3 | 52.38% | 5:00 pm |
A flat 10 cent number, so the ticket needs to cash a shade over 52 percent of the time. The half point matters here. At 7.5, a Texas Tech win by exactly a touchdown still pays, and a one score game in either direction pays too.
One Common Opponent, Two Very Different Nights
Each of these teams has played one FCS opponent and Oregon State. The FCS games tell you nothing. Houston beat Southern 77 to 6 and Texas Tech beat Abilene Christian 33 to 10, and I'm not reading anything into either. The Oregon State games are where the comparison lives.
| Against Oregon State | Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Result | Won 33 to 20, home | Won 35 to 24, road |
| Total yards gained | 533 | 352 |
| Yards per rush | 5.6 | 3.3 |
| Yards allowed | 402 | 472 |
| Rushing yards allowed | 26 | 55 |
| Passing yards allowed | 376 | 417 |
| Third downs | 7 of 13 | 8 of 17 |
Texas Tech won that game on the scoreboard, and I'm giving the Red Raiders full credit for doing it in Corvallis. But they were outgained by 120 yards in it. Houston outgained the same team by 131. One of these two teams dominated Oregon State and one of them survived it, and the survivor is the one laying more than a touchdown.
Home field explains part of that gap. It doesn't explain 251 yards of it.
What Houston Has Looked Like
Conner Weigman is 29 of 42 for 425 yards through two games, with 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Against Oregon State he threw for 305 at better than 10 yards an attempt, and Amare Thomas caught 8 balls for 133 of those yards. That's a real passing game against a real opponent.
The run game is the bigger story. Makhi Hughes went for 98 yards on 17 carries against the Beavers and Re'Shaun Sanford II added 75 on 11, and Houston ran for 228 as a team. A road underdog that can run the ball shortens the game, and a shorter game is a friend to anybody holding 7.5 points.
Texas Tech's offense has been steady rather than explosive. Will Hammond is 46 of 60 for 487 yards with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception, and J'Koby Williams has 187 rushing yards on 33 carries. That's a good offense. Through two games it hasn't been a better one than Houston's.
The Number Has Already Moved Five Points
DraftKings opened this game at Texas Tech -12.5, according to the odds feed on ESPN's game page. It sits at 7.5 this afternoon. That's five points of movement toward Houston, which means the market has read the Oregon State results the same way I have.
That cuts both ways, and I'll be honest about it. The best of the number is gone. Anybody who took Houston +12.5 at the open has a better ticket than this one. But 7.5 still sits on the right side of the touchdown, and the case above doesn't need the extra five points to work.
The Argument Against This Play
Houston hasn't left home yet. Both Cougar wins came in Houston, and Lubbock on a Friday night in a ranked conference game is a different assignment. Texas Tech has already won a road game this year, and Houston hasn't played one.
Houston's secondary leaked too. Oregon State threw for 376 yards against the Cougars. The Beavers got nowhere on the ground and beat the Cougars through the air instead, and Hammond completing 77 percent of his passes is the obvious way this goes wrong.
Houston turned it over twice against Oregon State, one of them a Weigman interception. Giving Texas Tech short fields at home is how a 7.5 point spread turns into a 17 point loss.
FAQ
What is the BetLegend play for Friday September 18 in college football?
Houston +7.5 at Texas Tech at -110 for 3 units to win, 3.3 units at risk. Kickoff is 5:00 PM Pacific on FOX.
Why take Houston +7.5?
Both teams have played Oregon State. Houston beat the Beavers 33 to 20 and outgained them 533 to 402, holding them to 26 rushing yards. Texas Tech beat them 35 to 24 but was outgained 472 to 352. The team that dominated the common opponent is getting 7.5.
Has the line moved?
Yes. DraftKings opened Texas Tech -12.5, per the odds feed on ESPN's game page, and it is 7.5 this afternoon, five points toward Houston.
What is the biggest risk?
Houston has not played a road game yet, and Oregon State threw for 376 yards against the Cougars. Will Hammond has completed 46 of 60 passes for Texas Tech.
Where can this play be verified?
It was posted with its price and unit size before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and it is graded there afterwards whether it wins or loses.
This play was posted with its price and unit size before kickoff on the verified BetLegend record at trustmyrecord.com, and it gets graded there, win or lose.