A 0.75 WHIP Against The Highest Scoring Lineup In Baseball, And Seven Plays For 12.5 Units

Seven plays today, and three of them are the same kind of bet. A team total under is a wager that one lineup scores fewer than the number and it does not care what happens in the other dugout. Buy it on the right night and it is the purest way to bet a starting pitcher. Tonight the starting pitcher is Jacob Misiorowski, 1.73 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 222 strikeouts in 151 innings, and the lineup is the Chicago Cubs, who score more runs than anyone in baseball. That is the whole tension of the card in one game.

12.5 units to win against 17.18 units of risk, which puts the card at a 57.88 percent break even. Yesterday's four play card went 3-1 for plus 0.88 units. The two whole number run lines both cashed with room to spare, Cleveland 6-1 and Texas 8-5, and the Rays moneyline won 6-2. The three unit Giants and Pirates first five under was buried under sixteen runs through five innings, which is the single worst miss on a first five ticket all season and the reason a 3-1 day paid less than a unit.

The Card And The Math

Every play is a minus price, so every unit figure is the amount being won, not the amount being put up. Seven tickets at 12.5 units to win costs 17.18 to lay, and the difference between those two numbers is the whole reason the risk column is on the table.

How The Units Are Counted

One unit means one unit of profit. On Texas at -155, three units to win costs 4.65 units of risk, which is 27.1 percent of the card on one moneyline. The two Wrigley tickets together are 5.42 units of risk, 31.6 percent, sitting on one game. The other four plays share the remaining 41 percent between them and none of them is bigger than 2.06.

Break even for the whole card is 17.18 divided by 29.68, or 57.88 percent. Over seven tickets that is four winners plus change. A 4-3 day lands within a unit of flat either way depending on which four cash, and 5-2 is a solid green day at any combination.

Two Tickets On One Game At Wrigley

Brewers moneyline, -151, 2 units. Cubs team total under 3.5, -120, 2 units. These are one opinion bought two ways, and the opinion is Jacob Misiorowski. Twenty five starts, 151 innings, a 1.73 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. That WHIP is not a typo. He has allowed 35 walks all year and struck out 222, and in his last five starts he has gone at least six innings every time while allowing 2, 3, 1, 0 and 2 runs.

The number that matters for the team total is this one: opponents have scored three runs or fewer in 21 of his 25 starts, and that is the whole game, bullpen included, not just his innings. The Brewers pitch to a 3.47 team ERA behind him, best in baseball, so the innings after he leaves are not the trap they would be with most starters.

The other side is why the price is only -120. The Cubs score 5.37 runs a game, the most in the league, with a .773 team OPS and 196 home runs. They have been held to three or fewer runs in only two of their last fifteen games, and they put up 19, 17 and 17 in three of them. Against an average arm this under would be a bad bet. Against Misiorowski it is the best pitcher in the National League against the best lineup, and the league wide number for a team scoring three or fewer is 45 percent before either name is applied.

The moneyline is the same argument from the other end. Milwaukee is 86-53 and scores five runs a game. David Peterson has a 5.11 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP across two teams this year, and in eight starts since joining the Cubs he has a 6.09 ERA. At -151 the moneyline needs 60.16 percent, and the Brewers have won 61.87 percent of their games all season with everybody pitching. With Misiorowski they are 14-5.

Three Units On The Worst Run Prevention In Baseball

Rangers moneyline, -155, 3 units. The biggest play on the card is not about Texas. Cody Bradford has made five starts and carries a 3.42 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP over 26.1 innings, which is a fine line and a small one. The play is the Athletics, who have allowed 803 runs in 139 games, 5.78 a game, the worst run prevention in the majors, with a 5.48 team ERA. Jacob Lopez starts for them with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, and opponents have averaged 6.16 runs in his nineteen starts.

Texas is 69-70 and has won three straight. They are 38-29 at home. The Athletics are 53-86, losers of five in a row, and 28-42 on the road. At -155 the number needs 60.78 percent, which is the steepest requirement on the card and the honest argument against the size. The reason it carries three units anyway is that the gap between these two run prevention units, 4.40 allowed a game against 5.78, is the widest of any game tonight.

Dylan Cease And A Lineup That Does Not Score

Guardians team total under 3.5, -137, 1.5 units. Dylan Cease has a 2.33 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP over 150.1 innings with 217 strikeouts, and opponents have scored three or fewer in 16 of his 25 starts. Cleveland has scored 4.08 runs a game this season, under the league average of 4.48, on a .688 team OPS that ranks near the bottom.

The complication is form. The Guardians are 8-2 in their last ten and have scored 8, 4, 11 and 6 in four of their last five. Hot lineups cool off and Cease is the kind of pitcher who cools them, but this is why the ticket is 1.5 units and not two. At -137 the number needs 57.81 percent.

The Boston Under, And The Honest Case Against It

Red Sox team total under 4.5, -130, 1.5 units. Bryce Miller has a 1.09 WHIP over 94 innings, 92 strikeouts and 25 walks, which is the control profile that keeps innings short. That is the argument. The counter is real: Miller has allowed 2, 4, 5, 6 and 6 runs in his last five starts and his ERA has climbed to 4.12. Boston averages 4.49 runs a game and has scored five or more in nine of its last fifteen.

Under 4.5 is a wider door than under 3.5. The league wide rate for a team scoring four or fewer is 57 percent, and at -130 the ticket needs 56.52 percent, so this is close to a fair price on the base rate and the Miller WHIP is what tilts it. Smallest of the three unders on purpose.

A Whole Number In Tampa

Rays minus 1, -130, 1.5 units. Tampa Bay is 83-55 and 47-24 at home, the best home record in the American League. The Rays moneyline is -183 tonight, which is too much to lay. Minus 1 is the whole number: Tampa has to win by two or more, and a win by exactly one refunds the stake. It costs -130 instead of -183 and it gives back the most common margin in baseball rather than losing to it.

The Rays have won 63 of their 138 games by two or more runs and only 20 by exactly one. The Mets are 62-77 and are opening with Justin Hagenman, who has not started a game this season, against Griffin Jax and his 1.21 WHIP. Tampa Bay also has the lowest strikeout total in baseball at 963, which is the kind of lineup that keeps a lead from turning into a one run sweat.

The One Over

White Sox and Astros over 8.5, -115, 1 unit. The smallest play on the card and the only over. White Sox games have gone over 8.5 at a 55 percent rate this season on an average total of 9.24 runs, and Astros games at 57 percent on 9.40. Houston pitches to a 4.61 team ERA, the White Sox hit 181 home runs, and Davis Martin has allowed 4, 4 and 9 runs in his last three full starts. At -115 the number needs 53.49 percent. One unit because it is a base rate bet, not a matchup bet.

What Can Beat This Card

The obvious one is Wrigley. Two tickets on one game means one Cubs rally beats 31.6 percent of the card at once. If Misiorowski gives up a three run inning, which he has done twice all season, the under is gone and the moneyline is in trouble in the same half inning. The Cubs have scored 17 or more three times in the last two weeks. That is what they are capable of against the wrong pitcher, and the entire bet is that this is not the wrong pitcher.

The second is the size on Texas. Laying -155 on a team that is 69-70 is buying the opponent, and if Jacob Lopez repeats his last five starts, in which he has not allowed more than two runs, the Rangers are a coin flip and 4.65 units are riding on it.

The third is three unders on a card with an over. If it is a hot night across the league, the Boston, Cleveland and Chicago unders can all go at once. They are on different starters in different parks and there is no single condition that takes all three, but they are the same kind of bet and they will feel correlated whether or not they are.

How The Last Card Graded

September 1 finished 3-1 for plus 0.88 units. Cleveland minus 1 cashed 6-1 over Toronto, so the whole number never mattered. Texas minus 1 cashed 8-5 over the Athletics. The Rays moneyline cashed 6-2 over the Mets. The three unit play, the Giants and Pirates first five under 4.5, lost on sixteen runs through five innings, five for San Francisco and eleven for Pittsburgh, in a game that finished 13-12. Webb and Skenes, both at a WHIP near 1.10, combined for the worst first five of the season. That is the ticket that can happen to any pitching bet, and it is why the biggest ticket today is a moneyline and not a total.

Bottom Line

Seven plays, 12.5 units to win, 17.18 at risk, break even at 57.88 percent. Texas and the two Wrigley tickets are 58.7 percent of the exposure. The cleanest reason on the card is Misiorowski's 21 of 25 starts with three or fewer runs against him, bought as a Cubs team total under so the Brewers lineup does not have to do anything for it to cash. The moneyline on the same game is the same reason with a payout attached.

Every one of these seven is posted publicly with the price and the unit size before first pitch and graded on a verified record afterwards. The full record is here, win or lose.

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