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MLB Favorites and Underdogs Betting Records
How MLB moneyline favorites and underdogs have actually done at closing prices since 2016: favorites won 58.1% of games. Every row is computed from ESPN verified regular season games.
Updated October 11, 2026. Regular season only; pick em games (equal moneylines) are left out.
MLB favorites and underdogs by price, 2016 to 2026
| Situation | Games | Record | Win % | Implied win % | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites of -100 to -129 | 7724 | 4026-3698 | 52.1% | 54.0% | -270.45u | -3.5% |
| Favorites of -130 to -159 | 7776 | 4425-3351 | 56.9% | 58.8% | -245.39u | -3.2% |
| Favorites of -160 to -199 | 5165 | 3106-2059 | 60.1% | 63.7% | -290.14u | -5.6% |
| Favorites of -200 or more | 4119 | 2837-1282 | 68.9% | 70.6% | -100.21u | -2.4% |
| Underdogs of +100 to +129 | 10649 | 4856-5793 | 45.6% | 47.0% | -307.53u | -2.9% |
| Underdogs of +130 to +159 | 6023 | 2477-3546 | 41.1% | 41.2% | -3.78u | -0.1% |
| Underdogs of +160 or longer | 5777 | 1912-3865 | 33.1% | 34.3% | -203.62u | -3.5% |
Home and road favorites and underdogs
| Situation | Games | Record | Win % | Implied win % | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home favorites | 15821 | 9316-6505 | 58.9% | 61.1% | -561.26u | -3.5% |
| Road favorites | 8978 | 5086-3892 | 56.6% | 58.9% | -342.92u | -3.8% |
| Home underdogs | 8978 | 3892-5086 | 43.4% | 44.4% | -201.47u | -2.2% |
| Road underdogs | 15821 | 6504-9317 | 41.1% | 42.3% | -425.42u | -2.7% |
2026 by price
| Situation | Games | Record | Win % | Implied win % | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Favorites of -100 to -129 | 913 | 497-416 | 54.4% | 54.0% | +8.01u | +0.9% |
| Favorites of -130 to -159 | 856 | 472-384 | 55.1% | 58.7% | -51.97u | -6.1% |
| Favorites of -160 to -199 | 431 | 263-168 | 61.0% | 63.7% | -18.43u | -4.3% |
| Favorites of -200 or more | 202 | 142-60 | 70.3% | 70.7% | -1.03u | -0.5% |
| Underdogs of +100 to +129 | 1200 | 555-645 | 46.2% | 47.0% | -17.57u | -1.5% |
| Underdogs of +130 to +159 | 537 | 212-325 | 39.5% | 41.3% | -23.35u | -4.3% |
| Underdogs of +160 or longer | 306 | 100-206 | 32.7% | 34.5% | -17.01u | -5.6% |
Favorites and underdogs by season
| Season | Games | Favorites | Favorite win % | Favorite units | Underdog units | Home dogs | Home dog units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2402 | 1374-1028 | 57.2% | -63.43u | -101.50u | 348-452 | -41.25u |
| 2025 | 2378 | 1303-1075 | 54.8% | -228.45u | -20.70u | 439-449 | +50.32u |
| 2024 | 2412 | 1381-1031 | 57.3% | -121.11u | -74.49u | 362-484 | -52.02u |
| 2023 | 2419 | 1392-1027 | 57.5% | -123.41u | -30.97u | 395-528 | -31.22u |
| 2022 | 2415 | 1442-973 | 59.7% | -70.83u | -121.37u | 370-525 | -50.78u |
| 2021 | 2397 | 1413-984 | 58.9% | -50.00u | -39.39u | 383-507 | -0.36u |
| 2020 | 858 | 509-349 | 59.3% | -12.68u | -8.70u | 156-191 | +20.35u |
| 2019 | 2388 | 1437-951 | 60.2% | -23.44u | -87.17u | 359-528 | -42.12u |
| 2018 | 2376 | 1397-979 | 58.8% | -74.30u | -40.27u | 369-511 | -29.75u |
| 2017 | 2380 | 1365-1015 | 57.4% | -90.78u | -23.77u | 355-434 | +5.68u |
| 2016 | 2374 | 1389-985 | 58.5% | -45.74u | -78.57u | 356-477 | -30.32u |
Methodology
Final scores and closing moneylines come from the Bet Legend game database, with every game checked against ESPN's official schedule and final score. Units risk 1 unit per game at the closing price. These are market results, not BetLegend picks.
FAQ
How often do MLB favorites win?
Since 2016, moneyline favorites won 58.1% of regular season games (14402-10397). The bigger the favorite, the more often it wins, as the price table shows.
Is it profitable to bet every MLB underdog?
Not blindly: one unit on every underdog at the closing price returned -626.90u (-2.5%) since 2016; every favorite returned -904.18u (-3.6%).
How do home underdogs do in MLB?
3892-5086 since 2016 for -201.47u at closing prices.
What does implied win % mean?
The win rate the closing price implies (with the bookmaker's margin included). When the actual win % is above it, that group of bets made money.